College Football Odds, Prediction for Rice vs UTSA

Week 11 brings us a Saturday night matchup in the Alamodome in San Antonio between the Rice Owls and UTSA Roadrunners.

Rice has had an up-and-down year at 4-5 on the year coming off two straight losses to two of the top teams in the American Athletic Conference, and it gets the opportunity to play a third on the road this week.

UTSA also sits at 5-0 in the AAC with Tulane and SMU, so it will look to keep pace with those two teams to play for a conference championship. Can the Roadrunners keep it going at home this week?

Let's take a look at our Rice vs. UTSA betting pick and prediction for Saturday, Nov. 11.

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Rice enters this one needing a win at 4-5 under head coach Mike Bloomgren. While the record says otherwise, this team has been solid all year as most of its losses have been by one or two scores.

The Rice offense has been pretty impressive through the air after landing West Virginia transfer quarterback JT Daniels, a man who is well-traveled in college football after playing at Georgia and USC before his stint in Morgantown.

Daniels knows what it's like to face the top defenses in the country, so he has found success in the AAC helping the Owls put up 33 points per game with the 18th-ranked offense in terms of Pass Success Rate.

Daniels has thrown for over 2,000 yards and 21 touchdowns this year. The issue with Daniels is his seven interceptions, which is bound to happen when you rank 14th in pass rate.

Rice doesn't run the ball well, but it often catches teams off guard with how often it passes the ball. The Owls rank 29th in rush explosiveness and will need a few of these explosive runs to keep up with UTSA.

While Rice’s defense isn’t as prolific as its offense, it can hold its own. The Owls rank 74th against the run and 64th against the pass attack. They show some vulnerabilities in both aspects, which has led to them allowing 28.7 points per game.

The biggest issue for their defense is their inability to force turnovers. The Owls have a -4 turnover margin, which gives other teams short fields to get quick points.

Rice will need to improve upon its ranking of 126th in Havoc if it wants to pull off the upset in the Alamodome.

The Roadrunners are absolutely rolling through the AAC this year at 5-0, but they have to get through some of the league’s top teams down the stretch starting with Rice this week, USF next week, and then the conference favorite in Tulane.

Jeff Traylor has this squad back in a good spot after starting the season 1-3.

The Roadrunner offense is synonymous with Frank Harris. Harris has paved the way for a UTSA passsing attack that ranks 44th in Success Rate. He had some injuries early in the season that limited his play, but as he has become more available, the Roadrunners have started to win more.

UTSA is not afraid to run the ball either despite ranking 112th in Rush Success Rate. It ranks 12th in rush explosiveness with Kevorian Barnes being the big difference-maker at 4.8 yards per carry on 127 touches this year.

The Roadrunners have a balanced, well-coached offense, making it difficult for opposing teams to key in on one thing. This UTSA offense wshouldll find success and move the ball against the Rice defense.

Defensively, UTSA figures to be pretty similar to Rice. The Roadrunners aren’t bad, but they don’t jump off the charts either. They allow 25.8 points per game on the season.

The Roadrunners rank 68th against the pass and limit the deep throws with a ranking of 44th in explosiveness. This should be good enough to get some stops against Rice's passing game.

The run defense has been stout, ranking 47th, but the concern is the big plays it allows on the ground, as it ranks 114th in explosiveness. This plays right into the hands of the Rice offense.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Rice and UTSA match up statistically:

Rice Offense vs. UTSA Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	72	47
Line Yards	104	42
Pass Success	18	52
Havoc	100	87
Finishing Drives	5	86
Quality Drives	82	80

UTSA Offense vs. Rice Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	112	74
Line Yards	91	80
Pass Success	44	55
Havoc	63	63
Finishing Drives	45	52
Quality Drives	36	104

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	53	114
PFF Coverage	85	122
Special Teams SP+	74	46
Middle 8	125	28
Seconds per Play	30.4 (125)	24.5 (21)
Rush Rate	43.5% (121)	53.7% (62)

While I do trust Traylor will have his guys locked in for this one, the matchup with Rice just seems a little off given what I have seen in the numbers.

I think the Roadrunner defense plays right into the hands of the Rice offense, but the UTSA offense should be able to put up points against the weak Owl defense.

I expect the Roadrunners to come out with the win at home, but I think Rice can do enough to keep this within two possessions.

Pick: Rice +14

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