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The Boise State Broncos take on the Fresno State Bulldogs in Fresno, CA. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on The CW.
Boise State is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Boise State vs. Fresno State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 10, 2026.
Boise State vs Fresno State Prediction
- Boise State vs. Fresno State Pick: Boise State -6.5
My Fresno State vs. Boise State best bet is on the Broncos to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Boise State vs Fresno State Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
- Boise State vs Fresno State point spread: Boise State -6.5 (-110), Fresno State +6.5 (-110)
- Boise State vs Fresno State over/under: 48.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Boise State vs Fresno State moneyline: Boise State -250, Fresno State +200
Boise State vs Fresno State College Football Preview
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview: Riley Powers Ground Attack
Last week, Boise State recorded its first win as a member of the Pac-12, a 37-18 victory over Utah State. At 4-1 with convincing wins over Group of Six contenders Western Michigan and Memphis and a one-possession loss to Oregon, there is a case that Boise State currently has the best case of any G6 program to claim a spot in the College Football Playoff.
It would not be a surprise, as the Broncos made the CFP in 2024 and were arguably the best G6 program in the BCS era.
However, one thing Boise State has not had of late is a win over Fresno State. The Broncos have lost their last three games against Fresno State, including the 2022 Mountain West Championship game. They will look to snap that skid and spoil Fresno State's homecoming in the process.
Boise State brings a balanced and efficient offense to the Valley, averaging 200 yards both on the ground and through the air.
It ranks 21st in Rushing Success Rate, 35th in Passing Success Rate, and 7th in Havoc Allowed. It has scored over 30 points in each of its last four games, but also put 27 on the Ducks.
The Broncos' efficiency starts with their quarterback.
A rare breed these days as a quarterback at the same school for five years, Maddux Madsen is completing 66% of his passes and has 11 touchdown passes without an interception. He completed 80% of his passes last week, totaling 286 yards and 2 touchdowns.
He has a lot of talented weapons at his disposal, led by running back Dylan Riley. The junior leads the FBS with 685 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
True freshman Rasean Jones has already emerged as WR1, leading the team with 23 receptions for 359 yards and a touchdown. He has recorded a 20-yard reception in each of his first five games.
Defensively, the Broncos get after opponents, ranking 20th in Havoc. Last week, they doubled their season sack total, recording six against the Aggies. The Broncos have recorded sacks from 10 different defenders thus far this season.
They rank 23rd in Success Rate Allowed and 18th in points allowed per opportunity. However, they can be susceptible to giving up big plays.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Defense Leads the Way
While Boise State's resume is more notable nationally, Fresno State is also 4-1 and 1-0 in conference play. Since a rough season opener at USC, the Bulldogs are scoring 34.8 points per game while allowing only 10.8 points per game. Even with that, their defense has led the way.
Last week, Fresno State held Washington State to 182 yards of total offense and six points, marking its third game this season allowing 10 points or fewer.
It ranks fourth nationally with 11 turnovers forced and is +8 in turnover margin on the season. Seven of them have come via interceptions, with Simeon Harris and Ethan Tierney accounting for five.
Last season, Fresno State defeated Boise State 30-7 despite 224 yards of total offense. It knocked Madsen out of the game in the first quarter and held the Broncos to seven points while forcing three turnovers.
It will likely need to do more offensively this time around, and quarterback Jayden Mandal will lead the way.
Mandal is completing 66% of his passes this season, throwing six touchdowns and one interception, which came in the season opener. He has added a bit with his legs of late, rushing for 25 yards or more in each of his last three games.
The run game has been problematic for Fresno State this season as it ranks 136th in Rushing Success Rate. It has made staying on schedule an issue, as the Bulldogs are 121st in overall Success Rate.
However, it has been effective creating big plays, which will likely be its best path to success against Boise State. Fresno State ranks 21st in Explosiveness, while Boise State ranks 138th in Explosiveness Allowed.
Boise State vs Fresno State Pick, Betting Analysis
After last season's embarrassing loss, Boise State will be seeking redemption in this matchup. This time around, it will have Madsen healthy. The Broncos are also the more consistent team in this matchup from down to down.
Boise State has had more success this season when asked to level up in competition than Fresno State. It should be able to make Fresno State one-dimensional and force Mandal to win the game.
Despite Rasean Jones being listed as questionable, if the Broncos limit their turnovers, I like their chances of snapping their skid against Fresno State and winning the Milk Can back by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Boise State -6.5 (Play to -7.5)
