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We have a stacked afternoon slate, especially in the SEC with Auburn vs. No. 1 Georgia, No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 14 Tennessee and No. 13 Missouri vs. No. 9 Ole Miss.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 7, here's the full piece. So, here's my college football picks (afternoon) for Week 7.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 34-20-1 (63.0%)
- Overall: 257-198-4 (56.5%)
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College Football Picks for Week 7 Afternoon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Air Force ML -106 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Duke -3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Virginia Tech -9.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Tennessee +8.5 |
Air Force ML -106 vs. UNLV
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
It's a small sample size, but I'm an Evan Medders believer.
Following Liam Szarka's season-ending injury, Medders took over as the new starter under center for the Falcons. In his first career start, he led Air Force to a dominant victory on the road last week at NIU despite not attempting a pass.
Can Air Force duplicate that effort this week vs. the Rebels? I believe so.
UNLV has a legit pass defense that ranks No. 1 overall at the G6 level per some metrics. Well, that's not really applicable this week vs. Air Force, which literally just won a road game without a single passing yard.
The UNLV run defense is much more vulnerable, which makes this a nightmare matchup for Dan Mullen's group. While the Rebels rank top-five nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed, they rank just 74th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
They also sit outside the top 100 in tackling and run defense, per PFF. That's not ideal against an Air Force triple option that leads the country in Success Rate. Meanwhile, the very inconsistent UNLV offense ranks 120th in overall Success Rate.
The Falcons can control the clock throughout and keep the chains moving against a suspect UNLV defense that had no idea how to defend the triple option last year under defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, who spent almost his entire career at the NFL level.
Air Force ended up losing a wild shootout in Vegas, 51-48, last season but did whatever it wanted on offense. In fact, the Falcons actually outgained the Rebels, 603-597, rushing for 428 yards on 66 attempts.
They can use that same formula on Saturday. And while the defense will face an athletic mismatch, that unit is much sturdier and more experienced than last year's disastrous stop unit. Plus, this UNLV offense isn't as good as last year's squad.
UNLV has won three straight games, but the Rebels haven't been as impressive as the final scores may indicate in that trio of victories:
- Akron was down to its third-string quarterback and down all of its best defenders
- Cal lost its starting quarterback to injury in the first half and still outgained UNLV, 464-345. The Bears went 1-of-4 on fourth down.
- North Dakota State lost, 13-7, in Vegas last week, but finished with a 300-255 yardage edge. The Bison threw three interceptions (including a pick-six) and went 0-of-2 on fourth down.
I'm still not a believer in Jackson Arnold, who has especially struggled on the road in his career. I'm not sure he can take full advantage of some of the advantages UNLV will have on the outside against the Air Force secondary.
This looks like a perfect spot to fade UNLV after a pair of misleading home wins over Cal and North Dakota State.
Air Force vs. UNLV Trend
Since 2003, UNLV has faced Air Force eight times in Colorado Springs, with the most recent meeting coming back in 2023. The Rebels went 3-5 ATS in those eight contests.
Pick: Air Force ML -106 (Play to -120)
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Duke -3 vs. North Carolina
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
I think we're getting the Blue Devils at a cheap price in a home rivalry matchup vs. the Tar Heels. Part of that has to do with some injury uncertainty surrounding Duke's offense.
Star running back Nate Sheppard and starting center Matt Craycraft are both listed as questionable on the availability report. However, I'm operating under the assumption that both will play.
Sheppard, who ranks fifth nationally in rushing yards while averaging 6.3 yards per carry, is the heartbeat of the Duke offense. He's currently dealing with a foot injury but still managed 190 yards on the ground in a hard-luck loss at Georgia Tech last week.
After the game, he said he dealt with the injury all game and should be good to go. He obviously could miss this game, which would be a massive blow to the Blue Devils, but I took the risk and backed them.
If he does indeed suit up (and I believe he will), he should carve up a UNC defense that can't defend the run (101st in Rushing Success Rate allowed) due to subpar linebacker play.
The Tar Heels have done a tremendous job of limiting explosive pass plays through the air, but that strength won't really help against this iteration of the Duke offense.
Additionally, the UNC defense is currently dealing with an abundance of key injuries up front and in the secondary. It will definitely be without a couple of defensive back starters and likely have to make do without some contributors along the defensive line.
That should open up some opportunities for Walker Eget through the air, while Sheppard (hopefully) carries most of the load.
On the other side of the ball, Duke's defense has also excelled at limiting explosive plays. That means UNC will have to methodically drive the field.
I'm not sure it's fully equipped to do so with a lackluster rushing attack (108th EPA) and a quarterback in Billy Edwards who really struggles under pressure (42% completion percentage compared to 68% when kept clean), which is extremely problematic against a Manny Diaz defense.
Edwards (who has one big-time throw to six turnover-worthy plays) is just much more likely to make critical mistakes than Eget, who has the complete opposite BTT-TWP ratio on the season at 6-1.
This also looks like a prime spot to fade the beat-up Tar Heels following back-to-back physical games against Notre Dame and Pitt.
UNC did pick up a massive top-25 road win last week, but it obviously benefited from facing the Panthers' backup quarterback, yet were still outgained by 100 yards (Pitt went 0-of-4 on fourth down).
Give me the home team with the much better rush offense and defense in a game where we likely won't see many explosive plays. Just keep your fingers crossed on Sheppard and Craycraft.
Duke vs. North Carolina Trend
During his three-year tenure at Duke, head coach Manny Diaz has gone 18-8-1 ATS (69.2%) vs. FBS foes, covering by 3.3 points per game on average.
Pick: Duke -3 or Better
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Virginia Tech -9.5 vs. Georgia Tech
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
This is a good buy-low / sell-high spot on the Hokies, who have suffered back-to-back hard-luck losses against Cal and Pitt.
Meanwhile, Georgia Tech picked up its first FBS win (thanks to a missed chip-shot field goal by Duke) in a slam-dunk home spot last week.
I'm still not a believer in this Yellow Jackets roster, which is now dealing with a handful of key injuries on both sides of the ball.
The Hokie defense (which leads the nation in tackles for loss) should dominate the line of scrimmage on early downs and then create plenty of Havoc on late downs when Georgia Tech has the ball.
Virginia Tech's offense, then, should hit plenty of explosives through the air against a GT defense that ranks 122nd in EPA Per Pass allowed.
I think this VT offense is a bit underrated at the moment. Keep in mind one of their games against BC was played in unplayable conditions in basically a monsoon
I don't love fading Brent Key as an underdog, but this Georgia Tech team is at a severe talent disadvantage in this matchup.
And keep in mind, the Yellow Jackets have only played one true road game so far this season and lost outright at lowly Stanford, allowing 34 points to a Tree offense that has scored 10 combined points in the two games since.
I think we are getting the Hokies cheap in a game where James Franklin will want to flex his muscles in front of the home crowd following back-to-back close losses. Let's just hope John Love remembers how to make field goals!
Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech Trend
James Franklin has gone 72-52-4 ATS (58.1%) as a favorite in his career, including 55-37-2 (59.8%) as a favorite of more than a touchdown, covering by nearly a field goal per game on average.
Pick: Virginia Tech -9.5 (Play to -10)
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Tennessee +8.5 vs. Alabama
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
This is a super tricky spot for the Tide, who are coming off of an emotionally and physically draining loss to Georgia in a game that took a full 60-minute effort.
I thought the Tide fared well in a game where a number of fumbles and calls didn't go their way, but I could see them coming out a bit flat in a very tough place to play.
Keep in mind, Alabama lost outright as a massive favorite in a similar spot two years ago at Vanderbilt following an all-out effort vs. Georgia at home.
Additionally, the Tide will not be at full strength for this one. They will be without starting center Racin Delgatty. That will force sophomore Mal Waldrep Jr., who has only taken snaps at left guard this season, into snapping duties this weekend.
That could become particularly problematic against Xavier Gilliam, who has been one of the best interior defensive linemen in all of college football this season. In fact, PFF has the Penn State transfer as the highest-rated overall defensive tackle through six weeks.
Alabama will also be missing star wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams, which will make life easier on the Tennessee secondary.
Not only will the Tide miss his raw explosive playmaking ability on the outside, but he opened up many other spots on the field for others.
In order to slow down this electric Alabama offense, you need to limit the explosive passes and put pressure on Keelon Russell, whose superpower is those deep shots.
Well, so far, Jim Knowles' defense has been elite in both departments. The Vols' defense actually ranks No. 1 in explosive passing allowed.
Now, you can question the schedule of opposing offenses faced so far, which is fair, but the task at hand will certainly be easier without Delgatty and Coleman-Williams.
Most of the questions surrounding Tennessee come on the other side of the ball, where the offense has looked lost for long stretches. Fortunately, Josh Heupel is sticking with redshirt freshman George MacIntyre under center this week.
While he hasn't lit the world on fire and will still make some mistakes (missed a safety on a bad interception last week vs. Arkansas), it's been a much cleaner operation than when true freshman Faizon Brandon was out there.
The primary difference is MacIntyre isn't holding the ball for an eternity like Brandon, who took a whopping 10 sacks vs. Texas.
On the season, MacIntyre's average time to throw is 2.64 seconds, which is significantly less than Brandon's 3.3 seconds (an eternity). Among 147 FBS quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks, only Florida State's Ashton Daniels and Coastal Carolina's Deuce Bailey have a higher average time to throw than Brandon.
Can MacIntyre hit a few explosives through the air against an Alabama defense that has been vulnerable in that area? I believe so.
But this is now a run-first offense (that's also playing slower, which helps in the underdog role) that ranks in the top six nationally in both EPA and Success Rate with a potent 1-2 punch of DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris, who both average over six yards per carry despite not getting much help from the passing attack.
Can they keep that success going against Alabama? The Tide have been very stout against the run statistically, but keep in mind Georgia didn't have its top two backs (yet still averaged 7 yards per carry) and Mississippi State played with a limited Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell.
The Tide also may miss the presence of Terrance Green up front this week along that defensive line.
Bottom line, this is a tricky spot for a shorthanded Alabama team against a defense that matches up very well on paper. Give me Rocky Top at home in a game I project under a touchdown.
Tennessee vs. Alabama Trend
During his time in Tuscaloosa, head coach Kalen DeBoer has gone 1-3 ATS in SEC road games as a favorite of more than a touchdown with two outright losses against Vanderbilt (+23.5) and Oklahoma (+14).
He also lost outright in a nonconference clash as a two-touchdown favorite vs. Florida State.
Pick: Tennessee +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
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