The SMU Mustangs take on the Missouri State Bears in Springfield, Missouri. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. EDT on CBS Sports Network.
SMU is favored by 28 points on the spread with a moneyline of -3000. The total is set at 61 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Missouri State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 13, 2025.
SMU vs Missouri State Prediction
- SMU vs. Missouri State Pick: Over 63 or Better
My Missouri State vs. SMU best bet is on the Over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
SMU vs Missouri State Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | -3000 |
| Missouri St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | +1400 |
- SMU vs Missouri State point spread: SMU -28 (-110), Missouri St +28 (-110)
- SMU vs Missouri State over/under: 61 (-110o / -110u)
- SMU vs Missouri State moneyline: SMU -3000, Missouri St +1400
SMU vs Missouri State Preview
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
SMU lost a heartbreaker last week to Baylor, as its defense couldn’t make a late stop.
However, the offense showed encouraging signs, which makes me believe the Mustangs are an underrated commodity heading into Week 3.
The Ponies ran 24 fewer offensive plays than the Bears last week, but they were only outgained by 130 yards. They averaged 7.5 yards per play, which will bode extremely well against a suspect Missouri State defense.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings also looked much sharper last week, completing 17-of-22 passes for 308 Yards, three touchdowns, and a pick. The offense finished the game with a 49% Success Rate on standard downs and 54% on late downs.
There is a lot to like about the matchup against Missouri State, especially since the Bears have been dreadful defensively in their first two games. There is no doubt that SMU will put up a significant number on Saturday.
Defensively, several concerns need to be addressed.
Missouri State is not an elite offense by any stretch, but the Bears have generated many explosive plays through the ground and air in the first two weeks.
Meanwhile, SMU’s defense doesn’t create much Havoc and has been well below average in many other metrics. They've been pushed around in the trenches, so seeing them struggle again would not be surprising.
It is a good spot to back SMU after such a tough loss, but I'm not impressed with what I've seen from its defense. Still, the Mustangs’ offense should put on a show and do its part.
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview
If you like offense, this should be an excellent television show.
The Bears only scored 21 points last week, but they had 584 yards of total offense.
Quarterback Jacob Clark has been sharp thus far, tossing four touchdowns to one pick. The Bears' passing attack has been explosive, which will help them against a struggling SMU Defense.
Missouri State can't run the ball effectively, but its passing attack has been the offense's anchor. There is no reason to believe that will change against SMU.
The Bears’ defense has been a complete disaster, and last week's results should have been far worse. They allowed Marshall to hang around far too long in that matchup and surrendered 73 points to USC in their first game.
Looking at their metrics, the Bears rank towards the bottom of the FBS in the following defensive categories:
- Rush and Pass Success Rate
- Havoc
- Rush and Pass Explosive%
- Early Down EPA
- AVG Distance on Late Downs
That is an absolute disaster waiting to happen, entering a game against an SMU team that is more than capable of being explosive.
The Bears will be outmatched and outclassed in terms of talent, but their offense will be able to hold its own in most matchups.
SMU vs Missouri State Pick, Betting Analysis
I love the Over, as both offenses should take advantage of poor defensive play from both sides.
SMU is looking to bounce back after a tough loss at home last week, and Missouri State's offense is being overlooked in this matchup.
Both quarterbacks are more than capable of taking advantage of these horrendous defenses, and SMU's tempo should help increase the number of possessions both teams get throughout the contest.
Pick: Over 63 or Better
