Temple vs SMU Prediction & Picks | Friday NCAAF Betting Guide

We only have one college football game on the docket this Friday night, as the Temple Owls take on the SMU Mustangs.

In my opinion, these are two Group of Five teams that were on similar tracks five or six years ago during the Matt Rhule era at Temple. They're both smaller schools but stand as the primary Division I football program in their respective major city.

At that time, Temple had the advantage of being what most would consider a better program, as SMU hadn't been good since the death penalty. However, the Owls couldn't hang onto Rhule and never found an appropriate successor.

Temple has had five head coaches since he left — six if you count Ed Foley's multiple stints as interim head coach — and this program has seen a steady decline over the last four or so years.

SMU, meanwhile, has seemingly done everything right.

After finding some momentum under Chad Morris, the Mustangs made the slam dunk hire of Sonny Dykes. Not only did he take SMU to constant contention in an extremely entertaining AAC, but he also branded the Mustangs as Dallas' team.

Dallas-themed uniforms, billboards in the city and a strong branding campaign on social media have definitely increased their presence in East Texas for recruiting.

With a move to the ACC on the horizon, SMU looks primed to compete on the national stage for years to come.

Obviously, Dykes is gone now, but Rhett Lashlee needs to continue where Dykes left off.

Where does the betting value lie in the Friday night college football showdown? Let's dive into the Temple vs. SMU odds and make a prediction and pick in this NCAAF betting guide.

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I'll try to say this as nicely as possible: It has not been Temple's season.

The Owls rank 131st in our betting power ratings, and when looking at their advanced metrics, it's not hard to see why.

On defense, the Owls rank 132nd in Havoc generated — a problem against an SMU team that ranks 12th in Havoc Allowed — 130th in points per opportunity allowed and 127th in Quality Drives Allowed.

In particular, the Owls need to worry about limiting the Mustangs' Explosiveness. We highlighted that SMU ranks top-10 in Offensive Explosiveness. Meanwhile, Temple sits 113th in Explosiveness Allowed.

The offensive side is better, but not by much, with Temple ranking 92nd in Success Rate Allowed, 105th in points per opportunity allowed and 84th in Havoc Allowed.

The unit's biggest strength is offensive Explosiveness, and to call it a strength is stretching it, as the Owls rank 64th.

The real travesty of the Owls' offense is how often they put themselves in passing-down situations (34%, 102nd).

Look for quite a few three-and-outs.

The Mustangs have captivated Dallas over the last half-decade with an explosive offense. This year's team is no different, ranking ninth in Offensive Explosiveness.

However, they're not efficient, ranking 97th in Offensive Success Rate.

I don't anticipate they'll have a problem moving the ball against this Temple defense. In fact, this would be a great spot for quarterback Preston Stone to gain some momentum to carry him through the back half of the season.

So far, Stone has been average, with a PFF grade of 73.5 (115th out of 297 qualifying QBs). However, it's not like he's been a check-down king. His Big-Time Throw Rate ranks 30th among QBs with at least 70 dropbacks and his average depth of target ranks ninth.

He's also 77th in Turnover-Worthy Play Rate.

I think Stone has the potential to feast against a Temple defense that leaves a lot to be desired.

I also expect the Mustangs to shut down the Owls on defense. SMU has a defense that ranks fifth in Success Rate Allowed and in the top 20 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate Allowed.

This SMU defense is for real this year and is a great complement to its usually potent offense.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Temple match up statistically:

SMU Offense vs Temple Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	87	57
Line Yards	53	107
Pass Success	95	129
Havoc	12	132
Finishing Drives	49	130
Quality Drives	30	127

Temple Offense vs SMU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	110	4
Line Yards	95	31
Pass Success	69	29
Havoc	38	75
Finishing Drives	106	79
Quality Drives	54	13

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	63	20
PFF Coverage	85	81
Special Teams SP+	128	117
Middle 8	7	125
Seconds per Play	24.7 (27)	23.6 (13)
Rush Rate	51.1% (79)	40.7% (128)

Well, I just talked a ton about SMU and how I expect it to pass all over Temple.

But I still like the under the best here. This spread seems like just a touch too many points for SMU, and 55 seems a touch too high of a total.

Give me the under in Friday night's lone college football matchup in Week 8.