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SMU vs Tulsa Odds, Picks: Bet the Golden Hurricane as Underdogs

SMU vs Tulsa Odds, Picks: Bet the Golden Hurricane as Underdogs article feature image
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Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Steven Anderson (Tulsa)

  • The Tulsa Golden Hurricane host the SMU Mustangs in a Saturday afternoon AAC college football showdown.
  • The Mustangs come into this game as -1.5 favorites, according to updated odds, but we see betting value on the home underdog.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down SMU vs Tulsa below and shares his top betting pick based on his analysis.

SMU vs Tulsa Odds

Saturday, Oct. 29
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN+
SMU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-105
64.5
-102o / -120u
-115
Tulsa Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-115
64.5
-102o / -120u
-104
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The AAC has been a surprising conference to cover this season, as the dominance of Cincinnati has been one-upped by Tulane.

In this matchup, we’ll see two of the other conference contenders who are in need of a turnaround.

The SMU Mustangs have been an exciting team to watch as their Air Raid offense has allowed them to compete with every opponent. However, the issue so far has been that for as much as the offense has scored, the defense has allowed even more.

They face another offense with plenty of explosiveness this week, and it remains to be seen if the Mustangs can flip the script defensively.

The Golden Hurricane enter this matchup off of a win against Temple, and it was one they desperately needed. Prior to last week, Tulsa had lost three straight, and one loss was a blowout to Navy.

The Golden Hurricane are in an excellent spot to keep rolling, as they match up surprisingly well with the Mustangs.

So, how does that impact our handicap? Let’s take a closer look to find out.


Southern Methodist Mustangs

This SMU offense flows through one man: Tanner Mordecai. Mordecai leads this Air Raid offense with a cannon of an arm.

However, he was injured in last week’s contest against Cincy and was not a participant in practice on Wednesday. With his status up in the air, the offense may be in the hands of redshirt freshman Preston Stone.

Stone has already filled in on a handful of occasions this year. Still, he has only attempted 38 passes in his collegiate career and has yet to show that he can have a similar explosive impact like Mordecai.

Regardless of which quarterback is at the helm, he will have a difficult matchup. The Golden Hurricane secondary has been outstanding this season, as they enter ranked 19th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and are 16th in PFF Coverage Rating.

However, the numbers for the Golden Hurricane don’t stop there, as they will contain this SMU passing attack.

Tulsa is also 11th in opponent completion percentage and 21st in yards per pass allowed, and that number will drop significantly if Stone plays over Mordecai.


Tulsa Golden Hurricane

While it hasn’t paid dividends in the win column, the Tulsa offense has been solid this season. The Golden Hurricane will deploy a balanced attack that will feature two men: quarterback Davis Brin and running back Steven Anderson.

Brin has been explosive in the pocket, as he’s averaged nine yards per completion and holds a 16:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That yards per pass mark is good for 43rd in the country, and he should maintain, if not exceed, that average in this matchup.

The Mustangs’ secondary has shown to be decent from a coverage perspective, but they’ve also allowed their share of big plays, as they rank 98th in yards per pass allowed.

However, Tulsa will dominate is on the ground. Despite Anderson not having the greatest season running the ball, he should find some holes against SMU.

The Mustangs have been rolling out the red carpet for opposing rushers this year, as they are allowing 5.2 yards per carry. That has translated into ranking 123rd in rushing yards allowed per game.

The Mustangs will be challenged against a Golden Hurricane offense that has already proven capable in plus territory, ranking 12th in Offensive Finishing Drives.


SMU vs Tulsa Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Tulsa match up statistically:

SMU Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 69 86
Line Yards 77 113
Pass Success 73 19
Pass Blocking** 12 91
Havoc 72 105
Finishing Drives 27 121
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Tulsa Offense vs. SMU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 63 66
Line Yards 63 61
Pass Success 56 28
Pass Blocking** 117 112
Havoc 107 114
Finishing Drives 12 55
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 114 80
PFF Coverage 86 16
SP+ Special Teams 51 77
Seconds per Play 20.0 (2) 25.4 (41)
Rush Rate 43.2% (121) 50.5% (83)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focu,s, and SportSource Analytics.

SMU vs Tulsa Betting Pick

This was a tight matchup prior to the Mordecai injury, as Tulsa should contain the SMU passing attack and control the game with its rushing attack.

If Stone starts for the Mustangs, SMU will be much less dangerous on offense and, therefore, more beatable.

Regardless of who plays quarterback, this is an excellent spot for the Golden Hurricane as home dogs, and I’m willing to take all the points I can get with them.

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