The South Dakota State Jackrabbits take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston, IL. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on BTN.
Northwestern is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Here’s my South Dakota State vs. Northwestern prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 5, 2026.
South Dakota State vs Northwestern Prediction
- South Dakota State vs. Northwestern Pick: Over 46.5 (Play to 49)
My Northwestern vs. South Dakota State best bet is on the point total over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
South Dakota State vs Northwestern Odds
| South Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -112 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +380 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -108 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
- South Dakota State vs Northwestern point spread: South Dakota State +12.5 (-112), Northwestern -12.5 (-108)
- South Dakota State vs Northwestern over/under: 46.5 (-110o / -110u)
- South Dakota State vs Northwestern moneyline: South Dakota State +380, Northwestern -500
South Dakota State vs Northwestern Preview
South Dakota State Jackrabbits Betting Preview
South Dakota State is one of the premier programs at the FCS level and will contend for the Missouri Valley Conference title and make a deep run as a seeded team in the FCS playoffs.
Chase Mason is back from an injury that hampered him last season, and the entire team looked like a well-oiled machine during last week’s 70-7 victory over Stetson.
Mason looked good in the opener in limited action, and he will make plays in this game as well. Mason is such a strong, physical player who can make the throws and command the huddle.
The receiver room is loaded with talent, and Graham Goering, Greyton Gannon and Jack Smith will make plays on Saturday afternoon.
The backs looked good in the opener for South Dakota State, with James Basinger and Corey Blair Jr. each eclipsing 100 yards while Josiah Johnson ran for a pair of touchdowns.
The offensive line, coming off its worst seasonal performance in 10 years, was crisp and cohesive and did not allow a negative play. Doing that against Stetson does not completely project for success moving forward, but had the Jacks allowed pressure and havoc, that would have been an issue.
The Jacks have a strong FCS-level defense. This year, seven starters return, including a pair on the defensive line in Dawson Ripperda and Reis Kirschenman.
The run defense was exceptional last season outside of games against North Dakota State and Montana State, and with five linebackers returning from last year’s room, the run defense could be even stronger.
The secondary is replacing all four starters from last season, and while they were not exploited by Stetson, the Jacks could give up some passing yardage here.
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview
The Wildcats will have a new look to their offense, as several new players enrolled in the spring to join offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who brings his up-tempo system to Chicago.
Aidan Chiles was brought in to run the show at quarterback after a pair of seasons at Michigan State. Chiles has dual-threat capabilities, which will help increase the run game's production.
Caleb Komolafe and Joseph Himon II are back in the backfield, and Gavin Sawchuk transferred in from Florida State, giving the room depth and experience.
Griffin Wilde is the alpha in the receiver room after leading the Wildcats with 880 yards on 71 catches last year. Not only was Wilde the best option, at times he was the only option, and he has developed into one of the best receivers in the entire conference.
Four of the top five receivers are back. Also, Alex Honig transfers in from UConn and he will catch plenty of passes.
The offensive line is being retooled after losing four starters from last year’s team, but Ezomo Oratokhai returns to anchor the center position. Three transfers should bolster the unit's depth, and this could work out okay, especially given the scheme.
The defensive line loses three starters who were consistent havoc creators, but Brendan Flakes and Michael Kilbane do return. The interior of this defensive line needs to develop some size, and a pair of transfers will be called on to add some depth to the rotation.
Kobie McKinzie transfers in at linebacker from Oklahoma State, joining Braden Turner and Braydon Brus. The linebacker room will be asked to support the defensive line in run-stopping, while strengthening an experienced secondary.
Finally, the back unit returns a pair of starters.
South Dakota State vs Northwestern Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with South Dakota State at 15.5 points, and the total has remained at 46.5. The Jackrabbits have taken money and now sit as 12.5-point underdogs in this game.
I think both offenses are capable of putting up numbers, and I don’t think it's priced appropriately into the total. I am on the over.
Mason is such a weapon at quarterback for South Dakota State, and his return to the lineup will make this offense a strength. With Mason at the helm, the Jacks defeated Montana State, which was equipped with one of the best defenses at the FCS level last season.
However, SDSU also has three capable, explosive receivers that will register big plays against Northwestern.
The run game should also perform well for South Dakota State against a weaker Northwestern defensive front. The offensive line will play better once it is fully healthy in the offseason, and SDSU will move the ball.
I trust this offense to execute on third down and in the red zone and keep the pressure on Northwestern’s high-flying offense.
The other part of this that is not being appropriately priced is the change in Northwestern’s offensive philosophy. Kelly is going to run his bunch at a higher tempo, and the deep vertical shots will be taken and connected.
Wilde will have a monster day against his old mates, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see several long passing plays. SDSU does not face much tempo from anyone in the Missouri Valley Conference on a regular basis, so its defense not being conditioned for it could be a concern in the second half.
This game is going to be close throughout, and Northwestern should win by 7-10 points or so, but I like points from both teams.
The Wildcats should be in the 30s, and SDSU is certainly capable of scoring 21.
Pick: Over 46.5 (Play to 49)
