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Thursday. Night. Football.
Thursday's NFL game between the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos isn't the only action on the gridiron tomorrow night. In fact, we have three college football games on the docket as well.
Our staff broke down all three games — UAB vs. East Carolina, Old Dominion vs. Georgia Southern and Texas State vs. Colorado State — and came through with a pick for each.
With so much action to get to, let's dive into their Thursday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for October 15.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Thursday College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UAB vs. East Carolina Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with ECU favored by 6.5 points, and the total was set at 50.5 early in the week. The total has come down significantly and sits at 47.5, while money coming in on UAB has brought this line down to where it currently sits.
The Blazers are listed as 4.5-point underdogs. I like UAB here and will play it at +4.5.
Much has been made about the strength of the ECU pass defense, which ranks ninth nationally in PPA Per Pass allowed and seventh in Passing Success Rate allowed.
The strength of the opponent should be considered here, as the Pirates have played Old Dominion and Rice, neither of which is designed to throw the football with regularity. Sandwiched in was a game against a struggling HBCU opponent.
Early in the season, this secondary was torched by both Alabama and App State through the air, as the Pirates gave up a combined nine yards per passing attempt.
The ECU defensive front is coming off a physical game against Rice, which saw the Owls run the ball 51 times. Now, with a quick turnaround, I expect the effectiveness of the defensive line to be reduced slightly.
I do think UAB can run the football and sustain possession while having more success in East Carolina territory. Situational execution has been solid at home, as the Blazers have converted 53% of third downs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see UAB convert some key third downs at a high rate here.
The Pirates, meanwhile, are converting just 27% of third-down attempts this season, so the drives will have to be methodical against UAB.
ECU ranks 93rd nationally in early down Success Rate, so expect the Pirates to be in third-down situations a lot here. The Blazers are excellent in the secondary in defending the pass, and this unit will come up big on the money down in this game.
East Carolina has a terrible offensive line that allows a tremendous amount of Havoc, and the rushing offense has suffered from the poor play as well.
The Pirates have also fumbled the football 11 times in the first five weeks, with five of those cough-ups resulting in turnovers. UAB has an opportunistic defense that will force a couple of turnovers and put its team in solid positions to capitalize.
I don't see a ton of separation between these two teams. The inconsistent play, lack of a running game and fumbling issues will likely show up for the Pirates on the road.
This game feels like a field-goal game either way, and I project it to be low-scoring. I'll take UAB as a home 'dog to get it done in a big weekday home game that I think it can win outright.
Pick: UAB +4.5
| | |
Old Dominion vs. Georgia Southern Pick
By RoadToCFB
Georgia Southern opened as a -2.5 favorite on the road and was bet up to -4, which seems to be this game's resistance point.
The total opened at 52.5 and was deemed far too high, being bet all the way down as low as 46.5 before action pushed it back up to 47.5.
Although ODU runs a quick tempo (24.2 seconds between plays, 19th-fastest), inefficiency per play makes this an offense ripe for unders. It's also an offense that puts its defense in really, really tough spots.
This season, ODU's offense has possessed the ball for 47.4% of games, a mark outside the top 100 nationally. As a result, it's defending 73 plays per game (30th-most in the country).
So, despite the per-play success the defense sees, it eventually breaks down and allows scores.
But this week, we're getting on Georgia Southern on the road.
Eagles quarterback Max Johnson has pretty stark home/away splits this season. Of his 1,572 yards, 908 of them came in three games at home, and all three of those are his highest of the season. Of his 11 passing touchdowns, seven have come in home contests.
It's not opponent-dependent, either. Johnson accomplished that against James Madison and Houston, markedly better teams than his road games at Coastal Carolina, Clemson and Jacksonville State.
He's simply a better passer at home, and Georgia Southern is a better team in Statesboro.
ODU, meanwhile, excels against the pass. Its two defensive breakdowns came against aggressive offenses and explosive plays. Johnson targets receivers an average of 7.9 yards downfield, outside the top 100 nationally for quarterbacks (min. 50 attempts).
His downfield shots are low-percentage attempts to a receiving room that lacks a lot of downfield options. Just the kind of passing offense ODU has thrived against.
Pick: Georgia Southern Team Total Under 26.5 or Better
| | |
Texas State vs. Colorado State Pick
By RoadToCFB
You might take the teams out of the Pac-12, but you'll never remove the Pac-12 from the teams.
We have ourselves a good, old-fashioned 70-point over/under for what looks like a shootout in the making, a large adjustment from an absurdly conservative 63.5-point opener. At its peak, this number touched 72.5.
It makes sense given the lack of defense, especially against the pass, from both sides.
Texas State has been a bit careless with the football this season, giving it away 10 times through five games and putting its already-struggling defense in difficult spots.
It creates "flash fry" spots for Texas State, which has given up 21-plus in a single quarter three times already this year (after doing so three times last year, too).
So far this season, Colorado State has been fried right out of the gate.
Against UTSA, it allowed 21 in the first quarter despite scoring two touchdowns on two plays itself. Oregon State also scored 35 in the first half, BYU scored 31 of its 41 in the first half, and even Southern Utah scored 21 of its 24 points in the first half.
We can get Texas State just a hair above 21 first-half points. Head coach GJ Kinne has never had a problem scoring early and building leads — it's been maintaining those leads that's the issue. So, back to the well with the new coordinator in-house.
We'll find out if it's truly just a personnel problem or a scheme problem for CSU's secondary.
Pick: Texas State 1H Team Total Over 21.5 (Play to 22.5)
