College Football Odds & Picks: How to Bet Tuesday’s Liberty vs Jax State & Coastal Carolina vs App State Games
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- Tuesday night college football is finally here.
- Tuesday's NCAAF slate features three games: Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech, Liberty vs. Jacksonville State and Coastal Carolina vs. Appalachian State.
- Check out all three of our Tuesday night college football betting previews and picks below.
It's another Tuesday in October, which can only mean one thing: football!
Tuesday's slate of college football action sees two Conference USA matchups — Louisiana Tech vs. Middle Tennessee and Liberty vs. Jacksonville State — along with a Sun Belt battle in Coastal Carolina vs. Appalachian State.
Our college football writers broke down all three games in their full betting previews and came through with a pick for each.
Tuesday night football won't last forever, so let's enjoy it while we can — and hopefully we can cash a few tickets while we're at it.
Tuesday College Football Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups from Tuesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p,m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Louisiana Tech vs. Middle Tennessee
By Cody Goggin
Louisiana Tech meets Middle Tennessee in Tuesday night Conference USA action after the league adopted the MAC’s strategy of giving us some mid-week football to consume.
Us college football fans thank them for it.
This matchup features two teams that are on the same tier, and this should make for a good fight in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
However, there's one unit in this game that I believe will decide which team comes out victorious in this conference bout.
Let’s take a look at this breakdown and our Louisiana Tech vs. Middle Tennessee pick.
Louisiana Tech hasn't had the best of years offensively. The Bulldogs rank 104th in Success Rate and 73rd in Finishing Drives, but they have been the 17th-most explosive offense.
The Bulldogs haven’t been great in either facet of their offense, as they rank 98th in Rushing Success Rate and 103rd in Passing Success Rate. They do pass at the 47th-highest rate in the country, but this hasn't proven to be any more effective than running the ball.
Over the last few weekends, this passing attack has been led by quarterback Jack Turner. Turner saw very little playing time in 2022 but has seen much more action over the last month, as he's been starting in place of the injured Hank Bachmeier.
There hasn't been any indication as to who will start this week, but Turner has proven to at least be a serviceable starter in his time here.
The best unit in this game — without a doubt — is the Louisiana Tech passing defense. The Bulldogs rank ninth in PFF coverage grade on the year. They're also fifth in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 17th in Passing PPA Allowed.
Their one downfall has been that they allow explosive plays at an unusually high rate, ranking 130th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed.
The rushing defense has been fairly mediocre for Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are 84th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 104th in Rushing PPA Allowed.
Based on the typical tendencies of this Middle Tennessee team, I wouldn't expect this to hurt the Bulldogs much.
If there’s one thing that Middle Tennessee loves to do, it’s throw the ball. The Blue Raiders pass at the 17th-highest rate in the country.
Unfortunately for them, this hasn't resulted in an extraordinary amount of success, as they're 87th in Passing Success Rate and 65th in PPA.
The ground game is where you could take advantage of this Louisiana Tech defense, but I have my doubts about Middle Tennessee’s ability to do so. The Blue Raiders rank 123rd in Rushing Success Rate and 124th in Rushing PPA Allowed.
Defensively, Middle Tennessee has been among one of the worst teams in the country at keeping opponents out of the end zone. This unit ranks 127th in opponent Finishing Drives. It's also 98th in Success Rate, coming in at 93rd against the run and 99th against the pass.
Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even on the road, I believe Louisiana Tech is the better team here.
At minimum, the Bulldogs are on the same level offensively, and their passing defense will be the X-factor in this matchup.
This game is a poor matchup for Middle Tennessee, as the Blue Raiders won’t be able to pass the ball as much as they would like against this strong Bulldogs secondary.
For this reason, I like taking the three points with Louisiana Tech to cover on the road, as I believe it has a strong chance of winning outright as well.
Coastal Carolina vs. Appalachian State
By Dan Keegan
A fierce Sun Belt rivalry takes center stage in a Tuesday night spot featuring a pair of fanbases that truly do not like each other, a legendary quarterback, skill talent galore and two forgiving defenses.
What could be better than this Tuesday night Sun Belt slugfest?
Appalachian State is one of the FCS/Group of Five blue bloods. The program won multiple national titles and then graduated to the Sun Belt and started winning there, too. The Mountaineers missed a bowl last year for the first time since joining FBS; winning football is their birthright.
Coastal Carolina is an upstart program, and it took the Sun Belt by storm the last few seasons. The Mountaineers have been one of their chief roadblocks to league contention; quarterback Grayson McCall has won three conference player of the year awards, but has no rings.
These teams truly hate each other. Coastal desperately wants to break through for a banner with McCall — although its chances are slipping away — and App wants to put the new kids in their place.
With both offenses outpacing their counterparts on defense, this game should be both pointsy and angsty.
The visiting Chanticleers have never won in the mountains of Boone. The team’s identity is shifting this year under new head coach Tim Beck, even with McCall back for another round of excellent quarterback play.
The offense has ditched much of the funky triple-option shotgun stuff called under former head coach Jamey Chadwell, but it's still an explosive unit.
The key is McCall, who had perhaps the worst game of his career last week, tossing four interceptions in a loss to Georgia Southern. McCall is not stuffing the stat sheet to quite the same extent that he did under Chadwell — with only six touchdowns and a 56.7 QBR — but any App State fan that's watched him the past three years would be foolish to discount him.
McCall acts as a point guard, distributing the ball to some of the best playmakers in the Group of Five.
Braydon Bennett has returned from injury to lead the team in rushing at 5.3 yards per carry, and sophomore CJ Beasley is also over five yards per carry. This rushing game has struggled a bit compared to recent outputs, but facing App’s generous front seven might be exactly what the Chants need.
The receivers are excellent. Sam Pinckney and Jared Brown both lead the way with 28 catches apiece on the season. Pinckney is a steady producer and Brown is greased lightning.
Overall, the offense is better at creating explosives (35th in FBS) than in efficiency, ranking 75th in Success Rate. There's plenty of proven talent here to put last week’s nightmare behind it.
The defense has improved from last year, when it was one of the worst in FBS at defending the pass. It's middle of the FBS pack in preventing explosives, a year after a complete collapse by the secondary.
After languishing outside of the top 100s in defensive SP+ last season, the Chants stop unit is up to 69th on that side of the ball. The key metric has been a bend-but-don't-break defense, as the Chants are top-third in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Mountaineers just continue to play absurd football games.
After last year’s roller coaster season, they have already lost a double-overtime thriller to North Carolina, dropped a game in Laramie that they dominated but surrendered a last-minute, blocked field goal return touchdown, and then won last week in Monroe on a walk-off field goal.
Shawn Clark’s 'Neers just can’t play a normal football game.
Adding to the chaotic mix is JUCO quarterback Joey Aguilar, an audacious gunslinger who's great at extending plays and avoiding sacks when pressured. (He has an incredibly low 4.6% pressure to sack rate, according to PFF charting.)
Like McCall, Aguilar has a nice war chest of talented skill position players.
Running back Nate Noel is 11th in FBS with 651 yards, extending the App State lineage of excellent running backs.
App sports a trio of junior receivers — Kaedin Robinson, Christian Horn and Dashaun Davis — and each has taken a turn leading the team in receiving. Each player has also had at least one 100-yard game in the early season.
With these varied weapons, the App passing game ranks 22nd in Success Rate.
The bugaboo for the offense has been Coastal’s defensive strength: Finishing Drives. While Coastal bows up in the scoring area, App’s attack has been wilting, ranking only 112th in scoring opportunity.
The defense has been generous so far in Boone. The pass defense has been good at eliminating big plays, ranking 15th in defending explosives, which will be a good strength-on-strength matchup with Coastal’s explosive pass game.
But the run defense is a train wreck, ranking 102nd in defending explosive rushes and 128th in defending Rushing Success Rate.
Anyone who watched the 'Neers play UNC can picture Tar Heel back Omarion Hampton galloping through their secondary.
They also gave up big days on the ground to Wyoming and UL Monroe.
Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State
Betting Pick & Prediction
With the line at almost a touchdown, I’ll take the points in a rivalry matchup featuring similarly-rated teams.
Kidd-Brewer Stadium should be absolutely on fire for this one. But McCall is a veteran, and he and his teammates have been around the block. Both offenses have some matchup advantages, but App’s struggle to finish drives might keep this one close.
Both teams should be able to get points on the board.
App only plays in close games these days, and I expect another white-knuckle thriller in Boone Tuesday night.
Liberty vs. Jacksonville State
By Brett Pund
Tuesday Night Football has arrived in Conference USA this week, with the headliner being Jacksonville State hosting Liberty at JSU Stadium.
These conference newcomers are the two teams at the top of the CUSA standings at 3-0. Unfortunately, the Gamecocks are not eligible to play in the league’s championship game due to rules surrounding the team's transition to the FBS level.
Meanwhile, the Flames have their sights set on a trophy with this unbeaten start through the opening five contests of the year.
We really need a catchy name for these midweek games in Conference USA, but in the meantime, let’s dive into this Liberty vs. Jacksonville State matchup to find the best betting value on the board.
Coming into this season, I was not a full believer in Liberty after making the change from Hugh Freeze to Jamey Chadwell. However, I have to admit that I was wrong with that thought.
Chadwell’s team has picked up his offense quickly, and the Flames are now the betting favorites to win the conference.
One of the keys to the strong start under Chadwell has been the rushing offense, which ranks second nationally at 255.2 yards per game.
It helps when he inherits the dynamic duo of Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley. Salter, a two-time CUSA Offensive Player of the Week, leads the team with six touchdowns on the ground, while Cooley has topped 100 yards in three of his five games.
A win here would tie the best start in school history for a first-year head coach, and it would put Liberty in the driver's seat to make the conference title game.
If I was low on the Flames coming into the year, I was even lower on Jacksonville State making the jump up to the FBS level. I believe it's safe to say I was wrong with that take as well.
Veteran coach Rich Rodriguez has been known for his offenses throughout his career, but it's been the Gamecocks defense stealing all of the headlines.
Rodriguez’s team has specifically been very opportunistic defensively, piling up 15 takeaways so far this season. The turnovers rank second in the country, while JSU also sits second in interceptions with 10.
The Gamecocks have allowed just 17.5 points per game, which ranks 27th among all FBS programs. However, the previous two opponents did find some success against this stout defense, which means the Flames have a chance to get something going.
Liberty vs Jacksonville State
Betting Pick & Prediction
When I look at this matchup, I really feel that the best units on the field will be the defenses for both schools. I don’t believe we’re going to see many long, sustained drives.
So, my best bet is the under 56.5, which I would play to 55.
If a team wants to contain a Chadwell offense, it has to be able to stop the rushing attack. Well, Jacksonville State ranks second in the nation in Rush Success on defense and fourth in Line Yards. This is also the same Gamecocks defense that's in the top 20 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.
Meanwhile, the Flames have struggled offensively once they get past the 40, coming into this matchup ranked 108th in Finishing Drives.
As for the JSU offense, it's not a consistent unit under Rodriguez. Jacksonville State ranks outside the top 80 in Finishing Drives, Quality Drives, Line Yards and Pass Success.
That's not good news when facing a Liberty defense that's done a great job of limiting teams through the air and putting constant pressure on the quarterback. It should make the Gamecocks one-dimensional on offense.
From a tempo standpoint, the Flames are one of the slowest teams in the country in terms of seconds per play. JSU does have that fast tempo under Rodriguez, but I’m not sure it'll be able to dictate pace without consistently moving the ball.
This same total would have cashed in regulation in five of the Gamecocks’ six games and in three of Liberty’s contests. I like those trends to continue on Tuesday night.
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