Tulane vs. Ole Miss Odds, Prediction, Pick: Bet the Rebels to Roll (September 18)

Tulane vs. Ole Miss Odds, Prediction, Pick: Bet the Rebels to Roll (September 18) article feature image
Credit:

Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Lane Kiffin.

Tulane vs. Ole Miss Odds

Saturday, Sept. 18
8 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Tulane Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+14
-105
76.5
-120o / +100u
+460
Ole Miss Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-14
-115
76.5
-120o / +100u
-650
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Saturday’s primetime matchup between Tulane and Ole Miss will feature two of the most enjoyable teams in college football.

Both the Green Wave and Rebels have displayed some of the most exciting offense of the season while simultaneously blowing their defensive expectations out of the water.

Ole Miss leads the all-time series against Tulane by a 70-15-2 margin and has won 11 straight meetings dating back to 1989. Ole Miss is also 12-2 against the Green Wave in games played in Oxford.

Can Matt Corral lead the seemingly unstoppable Rebels offense to 12 straight wins against Tulane and cover the double-digit spread? Or will the havoc of the Green Wave crash into Oxford like a Tidal wave they know all too well.


Tulane Green Wave

The Green Wave have started the season better expected, giving Oklahoma a scare in Week 1 in a five-point loss before destroying Morgan State 69-20 last Saturday.

This Tulane team has and will continue to be a severe threat to everyone on its schedule, averaging 297 passing yards and 197 rushing yards per game. This mix of run and pass has kept many teams guessing.

However, the Green Wave’s top-10 pace of play may work against them this weekend with an Ole Miss defense that sees that same speed every week in practice.


Green Wave Offense

Quarterback Michael Pratt has been a large part of the Green Wave’s offensive success, throwing for 420 yards and five touchdowns in their first games.

On the ground, Tulane has taken a much different approach than what we’ve seen from basically every other FBS team. No individual player has surpassed 100 rushing yards this season. Instead, they have gone by committee with 13 players carrying the ball at least once through two weeks.

Against Morgan State, Tulane managed 584 total yards with 7.0 yards per play and had a nice mix of run and pass (294 rushing yards, 290 passing). If Tulane wants to have any chance at keeping up against Ole Miss they are going to need the offense to operate like clockwork. 


Green Wave Defense

Tulane’s defense kept the game against Oklahoma close with turnovers rather than stops.

The Green Wave limited the Sooners with two crucial interceptions, a turnover on downs and a missed field goal, but Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler still completed 30-of-39 pass attempts. The issues in pass defense continued for Tulane against FCS foe Morgan State, which completed 59% of passes and threw three touchdowns.

Between two interceptions and a lost fumble, though, Morgan State’s mistakes were more significant than offensive failings.

The Rebels will be a much more complex challenge, and I don’t believe they will make the same kinds of mistakes that Tulane has seen over the past two weeks.


Ole Miss Rebels

The Ole Miss football team will have its first regular week to prepare for Tulane after playing two games within a week.

Ole Miss also has a chance to start a season with three wins for the first time since 2015, when the Rebels went to Tuscaloosa to face second-ranked and eventual national champion Alabama.


Rebels Offense

Ole Miss is fourth in the FBS in total offense with 599.5 yards per game, trailing Memphis, UCF and Arkansas State. The Rebels are also tied for seventh with Memphis in scoring offense at 48.5 points per game.

Ole Miss played Austin Peay last weekend when they had a 54-17 blowout win. In the victory, Corral threw for 281 yards and five touchdowns, and Dontario Drummond caught six balls for 107 yards and two touchdowns.

In Week 2, the Rebels had their offense working overtime, rumbling to 630 total yards, 336 of which came on the ground, while averaging 7.7 yards per play. Ole Miss was also great on fourth downs, going 4-for-6.


Rebels Defense

The Rebels defense is ranked 73rd through two games, allowing 358.5 yards per game and only 1.7 points per drive.

Last Saturday, the Rebels surrendered only 17 points, forced two turnovers and scored once on defense, which is a massive step in the right direction for a unit that struggled last season to keep points off the board.

In 2020 during its 5-5 regular season in the SEC West, Ole Miss’ defense finished 126th in the FBS, which is second last and only ahead of North Texas, and conceded a staggering 519 yards per game.

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Tulane vs. Ole Miss Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulane and Ole Miss match up statistically:

Tulane Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 57 104
Line Yards 35 65
Pass Success 52 75
Pass Blocking* 118 41
Big Play 69 34
Havoc 71 59
Finishing Drives 27 55
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Ole Miss Offense vs. Tulane Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 9 17
Line Yards 4 6
Pass Success 48 87
Pass Blocking* 28 92
Big Play 2 31
Havoc 3 44
Finishing Drives 36 7
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 62 71
PFF Coverage 39 40
Middle 8 95 58
SP+ Special Teams 90 67
Plays per Minute 7 5
Rush Rate 50.6% (92) 54.2% (72)

Data via College Football Data (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF & SportSource Analytics.


Tulane vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick

The Tulane offense is good. I don’t think you can deny that.

However, I think the Green Wave benefited greatly and took advantage of many mistakes in the Oklahoma game, and I don’t see them having that same kind of luck in Oxford.

Lane Kiffin recognizes and has acknowledged that the Green Wave  is on the same level as many SEC teams they will see later this season. I expect them to be more than prepared for Tulane after their first regular week to prepare for a game, and that’s why I’m taking the Rebels -14.

I would try to keep this at the key number of 14 if possible and take it up to as high as -14 (-125).

Pick: Ole Miss Rebels -14

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