The Utah State Aggies take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville, Tennessee. Kickoff is set for 12:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Vanderbilt is favored by -22.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2100. Utah State comes in as a +22.5 underdog at +1050 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 points.
Here’s my Utah State vs. Vanderbilt prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
Utah State vs Vanderbilt Prediction
- Utah State vs. Vanderbilt Pick: Over 58.5
My Vanderbilt vs. Utah State best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Utah State vs Vanderbilt Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +1050 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -2100 |
- Utah State vs Vanderbilt point spread: Vanderbilt -22.5 (-110), Utah State +22.5 (-110)
- Utah State vs Vanderbilt over/under: 58.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Utah State vs Vanderbilt moneyline: Utah State +1050, Vanderbilt -2100
Utah State vs Vanderbilt Preview
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview: Can Aggies Buck Trend?
For the first time in four years, Utah State is 3-1. It will look to move to 4-1 for the first time since 2018, when it got off to a 10-1 start.
However, given the Aggies' history, the odds will be stacked against them. Utah State is 2-27 against the SEC and 6-71 against ranked teams.
This will be its first meeting against Vanderbilt, and it's a heavy underdog, but it will bring an offense capable of hanging around.
Utah State is averaging 36.8 points per game and is coming off consecutive 40-point performances.
Utah transfer Bryson Barnes is on pace for a career year in his final year of eligibility. His career high entering this season is 12 touchdown passes. He already has eight while completing 65% of his passes and averaging 245 passing yards per game.
He has added six scores on the ground as well.
BYU transfer Miles Davis leads the team with 310 rushing yards on 7.0 yards per carry. He's coming off the second 100-yard game of his career against McNeese State. The Aggies are 12th in Rush Explosiveness this season.
Defensively, the Aggies have done well to limit explosive plays. However, they still rank outside the top 100 in Havoc, Success Rate and Rushing Success Rate. They have allowed 74 points in their last two games against FBS opponents.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Run Vandy Run
Vanderbilt is off to a 4-0 start for the first time since 2008 and has won each of its first four games by 20 points for the first time in 95 years. That includes snapping a 16-game losing streak against South Carolina.
The Commodores are led by fiery quarterback Diego Pavia. This season, Pavia has matched that emotion with precision.
The senior is completing 74% of his passes, accounting for 1,105 yards, nine touchdowns (eight passing) and two interceptions this season. He ran for 86 yards last week against the Panthers, but with Vanderbilt having Alabama and LSU following this game, it would not be a surprise if his workload was cut back this week.
If that's the case, expect to see a heavier dose of running backs Sedrick Alexander, Makhilyn Young and Jamezell Lassiter.
Alexander leads the team with four rushing touchdowns and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Young and Lassiter each have touchdowns of 40 yards or more this season.
Pavia's top target has been tight end Eli Stowers, a top NFL Draft prospect as well. Stowers already has two games with 70 yards this season, going for five catches for 73 yards last week.
Vanderbilt amassed 635 yards of total offense last week, setting school records for points in the first half (42) and yards per play (8.9). It now ranks fourth in Success Rate and 13th in Havoc Allowed.
The Commodores went over 200 passing and rushing last week and should find a ton of success against the Aggies.
Utah State vs Vanderbilt Pick, Betting Analysis
Something will have to give this week, as Georgia State and Vanderbilt are both 4-0 against the spread this season.
Their games have also featured plenty of points. Last week, Vanderbilt cleared the total by itself by dropping 70 points on Georgia State. It has scored at least 31 points in every game this season.
It also gave up 21 points last week and faces a Utah State that has scored over 20 points in every game thus far, including against Texas A&M.
If Utah State scores at least 20 again, I will feel very good about this total considering Vanderbilt's offense on the other side. While there is potential to soar over this total, I expect at least 59 points between these two offenses.
Pick: Over 58.5 (Play to 62.5)
