The UTEP Miners take on the Utah State Aggies in Logan, Utah. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Utah State is favored by -6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 60.5 points.
Here’s my UTEP vs. Utah State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, August 30, 2025.
UTEP vs Utah State Prediction
- UTEP vs. Utah State Pick: UTEP ML +185
My Utah State vs. UTEP best bet is on UTEP moneyline. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UTEP vs Utah State Odds
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -108 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -112 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
- UTEP vs Utah State point spread: Utah State -6
- UTEP vs Utah State over/under: 60.5 points
- UTEP vs Utah State moneyline: UTEP +185, Utah State -225
UTEP vs Utah State Pick, Betting Analysis
Malachi Nelson, a former five-star recruit in the 2023 class, will be making his first ever college start when his squad, UTEP, takes on Utah State on Saturday. This line shot up to Utah State -6 when that was announced.
However, this system actually likes the Miners in a moneyline value play.
That system is "Contrarian Underdogs" by our very own Evan Abrams. Since its start in 2005, this system is +$5,068, with a 4.2% return on investment (ROI), even though its hit rate sits at just 29%.
That doesn't mean this play is an easy hit, especially with a quarterback who's never started a game at the college level. However, there's no true film on Nelson, potentially giving UTEP an edge.
Most importantly, in college football, contrarian underdogs thrive in situations where the betting line moves strongly against them.
When spreads shift by several points from open to close, it often reflects heavy public or sharp money fading the 'dog, inflating the line and creating hidden value on the moneyline. That's exactly what happened with this affair after the QB1 was announced for the Miners.
In games where the spread is moderate to large, between four and just over 13, these underdogs are often overlooked but capable of outright wins.
The inflated perception of the favorite can lead to mispriced odds and the contrarian angle looks to capitalize on those rare moments when the market has overcorrected.
That perfectly encapsulates this spot.
Pick: UTEP ML +185
