The UTSA Roadrunners take on the South Florida Bulls in Tampa, Florida. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
USF is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. UTSA, meanwhile, enters as a +13.5 underdog and is +400 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 68.5 total points.
Here’s my UTSA vs. USF prediction and college football picks for Thursday, November 6.
UTSA vs USF Prediction
- UTSA vs. USF Pick: Over 68.5 (-110, bet365)
My USF vs. UTSA best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UTSA vs USF Odds
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 68.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 68.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
- UTSA vs USF point spread: USF -13.5, UTSA +13.5
- UTSA vs USF over/under: 68.5 (-110o / -110u)
- UTSA vs USF moneyline: UTSA +400, USF -600
UTSA vs USF Preview
UTSA Roadrunners Betting Preview
Last Thursday, UTSA made it clear that it’s not to be faded at home.
A 48-26 whalloping of Tulane brought the Roadrunners back to .500 and improved Jeff Traylor’s home record against conference foes to a 16-0 mark since 2021 and 8-0 since joining the American.
But on the road, it’s not as pretty.
UTSA dropped a 27-21 contest to Temple and followed that up with a 55-17 decimation at North Texas to begin road conference play. Those are two teams with potent offenses, and the latter has a fast, powerful attack.
On tap this week is USF, which boasts the most potent offense and fastest pace in the conference.
Quarterback Owen McCown has been one of the most impressive passers in the American, and he’s trimmed down some of the turnovers with just four interceptions, all of which came during a two-game road stretch.
Running back Robert Henry burst onto the scene early this year with 626 yards across his first four games, but his role has diminished slightly (17.3 carries per game in Weeks 1 through 4, but 13.3 since).
Henry is still one of the most explosive backs in the country, with six 70-plus-yard touchdowns (one receiving). But it’s all or nothing for him, as 23% of UTSA’s run plays are stuffed for two or fewer yards.
Against better offenses, UTSA’s defense doesn’t provide much resistance. That’s mainly due to a very thin and very inexperienced secondary that entered Week 1 with five healthy bodies at corner.
Junior KK Meier stepped in for RJ Lester (out for the season due to a heart condition), and he’s been picked on by opposing quarterbacks all season.
Meier is credited with four touchdowns allowed in coverage and an NFL passer rating in excess of 140 when targeted. Sophomore Davin Martin appears to be the future of this secondary, but he’s been flagged as many times as he’s broken up a pass.
UTSA has allowed the most 20-plus-yard passes in the American this season and the eighth-most 30-plus-yard passes in the country.
The Roadrunners are a bowl-caliber team, but the final stretch of games will make it difficult to clinch a bowl spot. They play at USF and at Charlotte, then host East Carolina (3-1 in the American) and Army to end the year.
You can find two-plus wins in there, but individually, it won’t be a given.
South Florida Bulls Betting Preview
From clear American Athletic Conference frontrunner to needing to essentially win out just to play in the conference title game, USF’s 34-31 loss at Memphis proved to be monumental.
On one hand, Memphis is a good team – ranked, even – and this game came on the road, and USF held a 14-point lead heading into the fourth quarter.
On the other hand, head coach Alex Golesh wears coaching rumors like a tightly-knit sweater. Distracted coaches tied to other openings can cause serious team meltdowns.
For the most prime example, see Hugh Freeze’s last run at Liberty before leaving for Auburn – it’s a real thing!
That’s the precarious position USF bettors are in at the moment. You have one data point: a wild loss to 8-1 Memphis, and then the Bulls went on bye.
USF is a well-rounded team with a lethal offense and a physical defense that doesn’t give up much on the ground.
Golesh’s offense plays a catch-me-if-you-can style that utilizes a ton of playmakers (five players have 30-plus carries and seven players have 10-plus catches) and forces opposing offenses to be flawless by averaging 37.1 points per game.
At the center is Byrum Brown, one of the country’s best playmakers. He adds eight rushing touchdowns to 17 passing scores and leads his team with 120 carries.
The ultra-tempo equation is simple, yet effective: Run as many plays as quickly as possible, average about a half-point per play, and score so many points that your defense doesn’t have to do much heavy lifting.
But that doesn’t mean the defense doesn’t do anything at all.
Linebacker Mac Harris leads USF with 37 solo tackles, 5.5 sacks, and three forced fumbles, not to mention a 93-yard pick-six earlier this season. He leads a stout front seven that ranks in the top 20 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed.
But the secondary is beatable if you can keep the quarterback clean.
USF’s three primary corners combine for 10 penalties committed and a low forced incompletion rate. Though they also combine for four interceptions, their aggression can get them into trouble.
The Bulls have a tough back-to-back to start November here with two teams ahead of them in the American standings: Memphis (4-1) and Navy (5-1).
UTSA vs USF Pick, Betting Analysis
If you’re a fan of points, this game is for you.
An initial over/under of 67.5 wasn’t enough, and that’s been bet up to 68.5. At the same time, USF was bet up from a 12.5-point home favorite to a 14.5-point one.
Both teams are stout against the run but vulnerable against the pass. They love giving up long passing touchdowns and quick strikes when the opposing offense is capable. Both offenses love running with pace and letting their respective quarterbacks control the game.
This season, every conference game for USF has exceeded 60 points, and the last one to not exceed this posted total saw two missed field goals. Memphis and USF combined for 25 drives, a pace that should have seen more than the 65 combined points.
Three of UTSA’s league games featured 60-plus points, with one team (not necessarily UTSA) scoring 48-plus. The “dud” of the group was the 27-21 game at Temple, where the first half bogged things down. The Roadrunners went on two 12-plus play drives, resulting in a frenetic second half featuring 14 drives (plus a 15th to kill the clock), versus just nine in the first half.
The weather in Tampa is expected to cooperate, with calm winds and temperatures in the upper 70s.
Traylor’s name has died down as a prime candidate for some of the biggest openings across the board, at least compared to 2022 when he was on a 23-5 run with the Roadrunners.
If this is a no-nonsense competitive game from both coaches, I expect a boatload of points.
If this is an audition tape for any USF Bull that may get the inkling that Golesh is moving on after this year, I expect a boatload of points.
Even if this is a prime distraction game for the USF coaching staff, I expect lapses in coverage and a bunch of points for UTSA.
Any way you dice it, I expect a boatload of points thanks to two very efficient offenses and defenses prone to giving up chunk plays.
Pick: Over 68.5
