The No. 17 Virginia Cavaliers (10-2, 7-1 ACC) take on the Duke Blue Devils (7-5, 6-2 ACC) in the ACC Championship on Saturday, Dec. 6, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
This may be the most unexpected conference title game on the slate this week.
Virginia started 11-23 in head coach Tony Elliott's first three season, but the Cavaliers have been nails in tight games this season. Five of the Hoos' 10 wins this season have come by single digits.
But now, coming off a 27-7 beatdown of Virginia Tech in an in-state rivalry game, they're ready to add a trophy to their case.
Standing in their way is a Duke team that more or less backed its way into the ACC Championship.
After a slow start in nonconference play that saw the Blue Devils begin 1-2 with losses to Tulane and Illinois, they've won 6 of their 8 ACC games.
With Virginia entering as a -3.5 favorite, where does the value lie?
We polled 8 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Virginia vs. Duke picks and college football predictions for the ACC Championship on Saturday, Dec. 6.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Virginia -3.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff was split on this one, but the majority lean toward the Wahoos to cover the spread in the ACC Championship.
UVA has had a special season, and the unlikely darling would love nothing more than to cap it all off with an ACC title and a ticket to the College Football Playoff.
The Duke defense is a significant liability, and I expect Virginia to take advantage — just as it did in the prior matchup this season. The Duke defense ranks:
- 118th in yards per play allowed (6.2)
- 125th in yards per pass allowed (8.5)
- 121st in Passing Success Rate allowed
- 126th in passing explosives allowed
This Duke secondary has been a major issue all season, and it's really going to be up against it here against a Virginia offense that's rolling.
The Hoos outgained Duke by nearly 300 yards in the first meeting and led the game, 31-3, in the fourth quarter. UVA left a little meat on the bone, as well, because the Cavaliers could've scored more points had they not turned the ball over inside the Duke 40-yard line twice in the first half.
The Virginia passing game was explosive in the last meeting, with Trell Harris averaging over 20 yards per catch. Quarterback Chandler Morris was also efficient in throwing for 316 yards.
The ground game, meanwhile, helped salt away the final quarter. I imagine that we see very little pressure on Morris in this game, so UVA should torch this Duke secondary.
The Duke defense struggles to get off the field on third down, and the Blue Devils have given up points on 45-of-48 opponent red-zone trips. I expect Virginia to score well into the 30s in this matchup.
On the other side, the UVA defense has been one of the more consistent units in the ACC this season, ranking 18th nationally in yards per rush, Passing Success Rate allowed and 13th in Havoc.
This secondary has been opportunistic, and UVA has been elite in getting opponents off the field on third down.
Tony Elliott has done an amazing job with the defense, and Virginia does a great job of disguising blitz packages and sending an extra defender from a variety of pressure points.
UVA registered four sacks and eight tackles for loss in the first meeting, but the stop unit had an even greater effect on the game. The Hoos allowed just 42 rushing yards on 23 attempts, and I expect their run defense to stand out again in this matchup.
Virginia will win this game by securing second-half stops and leaning on its defense to get the job done. The Duke defense won't pick up enough stops to get the job done here.
Over/Under Pick
Over 57.5 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 57.5 | 1 Pick |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 57.5
Our staff is leaning heavily toward the over. I have to agree.
My handicap mainly surrounds the Blue Devils. In terms of EPA Per Play, Duke has the nation’s 20th-best offense and sixth-worst defense.
I think quarterback Darian Mensah is one of college football’s top-10 quarterbacks — he ranks sixth in PFF’s passing grades. Surprisingly, his best games this year have come on the road:
- Week 3 at Tulane: 59% completion, 313 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
- Week 5 at Syracuse: 79% completion, 268 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT
- Week 6 at Cal: 73% completion, 265 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs
- Week 8 at Clemson: 66% completion, 361 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
- Week 9 at UConn: 71% completion, 222 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
- Week 11 at UNC: 61% completion, 175 yards, 1 TDs, 0 INTs
He has consistently gone on the road and made big plays.
At the same time, his defense hasn’t traveled at all, so it’s unsurprising that five of those six games easily cleared the closing total.
So, I expect similar results in this high-pressure, neutral-site ACC Championship game.
Yes, we should talk about the elephant in the room: Mensah’s Week 12 performance against the Hoos, where he completed just 18 of his 35 pass attempts for under 200 yards at 5.5 yards per attempt.
But it’s worth mentioning that his receiving corps had four drops in that game, the most of any Duke game this season. Given his 14.2-yard aDOT in the game, those catches could have turned an ugly day into a decent one.
At the same time, Chandler Morris and the Cavs went into Durham and shredded the Blue Devils’ poverty secondary (130th in EPA Per Pass allowed, 126th in Pass Success Rate allowed, 114th in PFF coverage grade).
Morris went 23-for-35 passing for 322 yards with a gaudy 9.2 YPA. They created six explosive pass plays, and we could see plenty more of those, given that Duke ranks 19th nationally in explosiveness and 121st in explosiveness allowed.
There’s only one big issue I see with either quarterback, and that’s turnovers.
I think Mensah is due for some turnover regression, given his four interceptions on 15 turnover-worthy plays. Meanwhile, Morris threw two picks in the regular-season matchup between these two.
However, that might work to our advantage, as it could set either offense up with short fields.
And if either offense gets into scoring position, I expect touchdowns. Duke ranks 28th nationally in Finishing Drives and 131st in Finishing Drives allowed.
Ultimately, I expect Mensah to show up, while Duke’s defense lets Morris sling the ball all over the field.
Blue Devils offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer needs to make some key adjustments to his game plan from the first matchup — he needs to keep pressure off of Mensah — but I expect he’ll scheme up something different in the rematch.
Our staff agrees.
Virginia vs. Duke Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -120 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | -186 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -102 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | +152 |
- Virginia vs. Duke Spread: Virginia -3.5, Duke +4.5
- Virginia vs. Duke Over/Under: 57.5
- Virginia vs. Duke Moneyline: Virginia ML -186, Duke ML +152
