The Virginia Cavaliers take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, KY, on Saturday, Oct. 4. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Louisville is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. Virginia, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and comes in at +205 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 61.5 toal points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. Louisville prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Virginia vs Louisville Prediction
- Virginia vs. Louisville Pick: Virginia +6
My Louisville vs. Virginia best bet is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Virginia vs Louisville Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
- Virginia vs Louisville Spread: Louisville -6.5, Virginia +6.5
- Virginia vs Louisville Over/Under: 61.5 Points
- Virginia vs Louisville Moneyline: Virginia +205, Louisville -260
Virginia vs Louisville College Football Betting Preview
Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview: Efficient Offense Leads the Way
I was really impressed with Virginia last week and was glad to deliver a winner in that game. Of course, it's a big let-down spot, but there is much to like about the matchup.
Virginia’s offense has been one of the most efficient in the ACC this season, showing balance both on the ground and through the air. The Cavaliers rank 25th in EPA/Pass, making them dangerous when stretching the field. They're even more impressive on the ground, sitting 14th in EPA/Rush.
They're highly effective at sustaining drives, gaining 64.8% of available yards to rank ninth nationally while converting on 57.3% of third- and fourth-down attempts (12th).
A big reason for this success is that they often stay ahead of the chains, averaging only 5.4 yards to go on third down (fourth nationally).
Defensively, Virginia has shown some weaknesses, particularly on early downs. The Hoos rank 128th in EPA/Play allowed, which means opponents can often move the ball effectively at the start of possessions.
However, the Cavaliers compensate by tightening up in critical situations, allowing just 29.5% of third downs to be converted (12th).
Their pass defense ranks 87th in EPA/Pass, while their run defense has struggled more, ranking 109th. Despite these shortcomings, their ability to deliver key stops has prevented opponents from fully capitalizing.
Virginia is dealing with multiple injuries that impact both sides of the ball. Offensive linemen Makilan Thomas and Brady Wilson are out, leaving the unit thinner than usual.
On the defensive line, Mekhi Buchanan is nearing a return from an ankle injury but may still be limited.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: Defense Stingy on Late Downs
Louisville has leaned heavily on its defense this season, and the numbers show just how effective it's been at shutting down opponents.
The Cardinals are among the nation’s best against the pass, ranking third in EPA/Pass allowed, and they allow opponents to gain just 30.2% of available yards (15th nationally).
Louisville is also elite on late downs, allowing conversions on only 31.8% of attempts (12th).
Its run defense is more average, sitting at 42nd in EPA/Rush allowed, which still makes it solid overall but leaves some opportunities for Virginia’s balanced ground attack.
On offense, however, Louisville has struggled with consistency. The Cards rank 73rd in EPA/Pass and 71st in EPA/Rush, numbers that reflect an average unit in both instances.
The Cardinals are inefficient on early downs, ranking just 72nd in EPA/Play, often forcing them into unfavorable third-down situations with an average distance of 7.7 yards to gain (109th).
As a result, Louisville gains only 47.6% of available yards (70th), a sign that its drives often stall before reaching scoring range.
I'm not in love with how this offense looks right now, and it was lucky to escape Pittsburgh with a win last week.
Virginia vs Louisville Pick, Betting Analysis
It's scary after such a massive upset, but I'm rolling with Virginia catching nearly a touchdown again this week.
The Cavaliers' balanced offense gives them multiple ways to attack Louisville, and their ability to run the ball effectively could be the difference against a Cardinals defense that's better against the pass than the run.
Louisville has relied on its defense to win games, but Virginia’s offensive versatility uniquely equips it to challenge that strength. On the other side, Louisville’s offensive inefficiency plays directly into Virginia’s defensive strengths.
The Cavaliers may give up yards on early downs, but their defense ranks top-12 in third-down conversion rate, which should frustrate a Louisville team that struggles to extend drives.
The injuries also favor Virginia, as Louisville is missing a key defensive leader in linebacker Stanquan Clark and may not be at full strength in the backfield. Meanwhile, Virginia’s injuries are more about depth than primary playmakers.
This means the Cavaliers should still be able to execute their offensive game plan effectively.
When combining Virginia’s efficiency on offense, Louisville’s inconsistency moving the ball, and the injury context, this game should be closer than the spread suggests.
Louisville may still win at home, but asking it to cover a full touchdown against an offense as steady as Virginia’s is a tall order.
Pick: Virginia +6
Virginia vs Louisville Betting Trends
