College Football Odds, Picks for West Virginia vs UCF: Value on Underdog?

Both West Virginia and UCF enter this matchup on a cold spell. The UCF Knights have lost four straight, and two of their losses have come with star quarterback John Rhys Plumlee at the helm.

The West Virginia Mountaineers have dropped consecutive straight games in crushing fashion after blowing two leads while allowing 89 points across the two matchups.

This matchup has the potential to be explosive, and while the total is high, there is value on the spread.

Find my betting prediction, preview and pick for West Virginia vs. UCF on Saturday, October 28th below.

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The Mountaineers have an excellent opportunity to get back on track against the Knights because they will be able to take advantage of their strengths offensively.

West Virginia runs the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the country and is 63rd in Rush Success Rate. The Mountaineer rushing attack will face a Knights defense that ranks 110th in yards per rush allowed, 125th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 120th in defensive Line Yards.

We will see a lot of running back CJ Donaldson Jr., who's averaging 16.5 carries per game. Quarterback Garrett Greene is also a big part of the ground game through designed runs and scrambles.

UCF got thrashed by a rush-heavy Kansas offense two weeks ago when it allowed 399 yards on the ground, which led to 51 points. While that volume is tough to match, the Mountaineers could have similar success.

The Knights have come crashing down after a hot start as they've struggled to keep it going after the injury to John Rhys Plumlee. However, Plumlee was at the helm for the entire game against Oklahoma and had a decent performance as a passer as the Knights came up two points short. Plumlee completed 16 of 30 passes for 248 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a 66.6 QBR in Norman.

However, Plumlee being back under center has not been the boost we expected because he is not as mobile with the brace on his knee. As a result, RJ Harvey has carried the load on the ground and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry.

Harvey will be a big part of the game plan, as the Mountaineers are 105th in yards per rush allowed and are 62nd in Rush Success Rate allowed. If they can get a consistent push up front, the Knights' tempo will combine to create scoring chances.

In the back end, West Virginia's secondary will be up to the task against Plumlee on passing downs. The Mountaineers are 29th in completion percentage allowed, 37th in yards per pass allowed and are 21st in generating Havoc.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and UCF match up statistically:

West Virginia Offense vs. UCF Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	63	125
Line Yards	77	120
Pass Success	65	44
Havoc	14	102
Finishing Drives	67	104
Quality Drives	72	94

UCF Offense vs. West Virginia Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	24	62
Line Yards	35	56
Pass Success	48	51
Havoc	51	21
Finishing Drives	78	98
Quality Drives	20	74

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	72	55
PFF Coverage	114	84
Special Teams SP+	41	66
Middle 8	27	37
Seconds per Play	28.4 (95)	24.5 (25)
Rush Rate	63.4% (6)	59.6% (21)

While this would seem like a buy-low spot on the Knights after losing four straight, they are still overvalued in the market. West Virginia should move the ball at will on the ground and stay in this game.

If the Mountaineers can get some stops, the Knights could be on upset alert yet again. Back West Virginia to cover the spread at +7 or better.