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Two top-six teams head on the road as part of the Week 5 college football night slate, and one of those games (Miami/Clemson) will be included in my seven spots for this window.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 5, here's the full piece. So, here's my NCAAF picks and predictions for Week 5.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 22-9-1 (71.0%)
- Overall: 245-187-4 (56.7%)
NCAAF Picks for Week 5 Night Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | TCU +6.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Texas A&M -13.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Clemson +17.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Colorado +13.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Temple +6.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Louisiana Tech +2 |
  | 11 p.m. | Arizona -7 |
TCU +6.5 vs. BYU
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
I have had this spot circled since the summer, as I tend to fancy home pups who got embarrassed on the road against their opponent in the previous season.
Well, TCU certainly fits that bill. The Cougars absolutely laid a beat down (44-13) last year in Provo. I'm sure this very experienced Frogs bunch has not forgotten.
TCU has certainly not lived up to some of the preseason hype so far, having already lost two games as a favorite against UNC and UCF.
However, there's still reason for optimism. The Horned Frogs did install a brand-new offensive scheme this summer under new coordinator Gordon Sammis, so it's no surprise to see some early-season inconsistencies.
I'm still very bullish on the hire and believe the offense will continue to improve on a weekly basis, especially with a now fully healthy wide receiver room.
Getting stud No. 1 wideout Jordan Dwyer back last week substantially raises the ceiling of this unit, especially since quarterback Jaden Craig's biggest strength is his ability to throw the deep ball. Last season on 20-plus yard throws, Craig had a sparkling 29:3 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play ratio.
Yes, that came against FCS competition at Harvard, but he's off to a great start in that department this season despite some early-season wide receiver injuries in a new offense.
To date, Craig actually leads the nation in big-time throws on deep passes with 10 (with only one turnover-worthy play).
TCU's defense also profiles as a much stiffer run-stopping unit, which is critical against BYU's potent rushing attack, led by LJ Martin and the elusive Bear Bachmeier.
I'm still not sold on the Cougars' passing attack, and now they will have to deal with the loss of stud starting right tackle Andrew Gentry.
This looks like a prime buy-low/sell-high spot on a conference home 'dog I show value on in a game that won't be played with much pace.
BYU has looked good so far this season, but it has certainly benefited from a few bounces and opponent injuries across a very favorable schedule.
Plus, the Cougars have only really played one quality opponent in Arizona, which looked like the better team for most of that contest.
I expect this one to go right down to the wire.
TCU vs. BYU Trend
Sonny Dykes has gone 15-7 ATS (68.2%) at TCU in home games, covering by an average of over five points per game. That includes a 2-0 ATS mark as a home pup with an average cover margin north of 23 points.
Pick: TCU +6.5 (Play to +6)
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Texas A&M -13.5 vs. Arkansas
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
Coming into the season, I was a major seller of Texas A&M, with its under 8.5 wins being my favorite win total this summer. I just thought the losses in the trenches on both sides of the ball would lead to a major decline in production.
Well, it's been even uglier than I had anticipated, with the Aggies losing outright as a 17-point home favorite to Kentucky, then following that up with an absolute stinker in a 35-6 loss at LSU.
With a rebuilt offensive line failing to pave the way for the run, Marcel Reed has predictably struggled in known passing situations.
He simply needs a complementary rushing attack to set up play-action where he thrives (17 TDs to one INT last season when throwing with play-action).
Well, similar to its matchup vs. Missouri State (a 50-0 victory), Texas A&M can just completely gash the Razorbacks on the ground. So far this season, Arkansas ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in both Rush EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed.
The Hogs have also been very vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks and play-action, which all sets up beautifully for a bounce-back performance from Reed.
Yes, Arkansas looked more competent last week in an easy cover vs. Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane started a backup quarterback in a tough spot.
This is still a very bad Hogs team that simply isn't built to play from behind. I trust Mike Elko to have his team ready, especially on defense, where the Aggies basically just need to focus on taking away wide receiver Chris Marshall.
If they can do that, I'm not sure how Arkansas (which can't run the ball at all) keeps this within two scores against an Aggies squad that's probably itching to flex a little bit in front of a home crowd that can't be happy with the start to this season.
I was leading the fire sale of this Aggies bunch in the offseason, but I believe the market has sold Texas A&M a bit too much.
Hopefully, wide receiver Mario Craver (questionable) is good to go health-wise, but even if not, the Aggies can still win this going away if they show up with a focused effort.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Trend
Mike Elko is 8-2-1 ATS as a home favorite of under two touchdowns.
Pick: Texas A&M -13.5 (Play to -14)
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Clemson +17.5 vs. Miami
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Since getting embarrassed at LSU in the opener, Clemson has figured some things out on both sides of the ball during its three-game winning streak.
The secondary has played particularly well, with the Tigers now ranking in the top 15 in both EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed. That's critical against the potent Miami passing attack, led by Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney.
The Clemson run defense remains a bit vulnerable, but you want this Miami offense running the ball as much as possible. The Hurricanes still have Mark Fletcher toting the rock, but the run offense has been much less efficient than when Mensah drops back.
The Clemson offense is still a major work in progress even after making a quarterback change.
True freshman Tait Reynolds has struggled mightily as a passer, but he has at least helped unlock the rushing attack, which Clemson has relied on in recent weeks.
The wide receiver room still oozes with talent, so we'll see if Reynolds can connect on a deep shot or two against a wounded Miami secondary.
That's all it might take in what I project as a lower-scoring game, which obviously makes the large home underdog more appealing.
Miami has also played a laughable schedule to date (124th vs. Clemson's 17th strength of schedule) with a pair of scrimmages against Central Michigan and Florida A&M.
And if a few bounces and calls didn't go against Wake Forest in the second half, that game could have gotten very dicey late.
Plus, Mario Cristobal teams have struggled in the past as large favorites, as his teams can overlook overmatched opponents, while he also tends to get a bit too conservative with leads at times.
Simply put, I just can't get to this number, especially when you account for the injuries Miami is dealing with on both sides of the ball.
I believe Clemson can ugly this game up in front of what should be a raucous atmosphere at night in Death Valley.
And there's a chance we see some inclement weather, which would obviously provide a boost to the home team that has the exponentially worse passing attack.
I don't think the Tigers have the offensive firepower to threaten Miami, but they can keep this within two scores as long as they don't get too far behind early on.
Notable Nugget
Amazingly, Clemson has only been a home 'dog once (+5 vs. Florida State back in 2012) in the Dabo Swinney era.
Pick: Clemson +17.5 (Play to +17)
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Colorado +13.5 vs. Texas Tech
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
This looks like a perfect time to buy low on the Buffs, who come back to Boulder for their first home game of the season vs. an FBS foe following two straight road losses by a combined 44 points.
Colorado will turn to a new starting quarterback in Isaac Wilson, who relieved the now-benched JuJu Lewis in the second half last week.
Wilson is certainly not a world beater, but he at least will throw the ball downfield (25% higher aDOT than Lewis, who just seemed afraid to take any chances).
If you remove the Weber State game, Lewis had no big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays. That's less than ideal.
Colorado does have some nice weapons on the outside, led by Joseph Williams, and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion seems to be figuring out the run game in his Go-Go offense, which usually takes a few games to get rolling in the first year of installation.
I also like some of the additions Colorado made on the defense in the offseason. It would significantly benefit from any help from the offense.
With that said, this is more about fading Texas Tech, which I believe the market has soured out enough on.
The Red Raiders finally did get a cover last week against Sam Houston by a half-point, but it took two pick-sixes and a miraculous touchdown late to get there.
Prior to that victory, they were a couple of bounces away from losing to both Oregon State and Houston.
The offense just doesn't have the same explosiveness, and Will Hammond (who still might not be 100%) has been extremely underwhelming at quarterback. On the season, he has two big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays when kept clean.
Additionally, I expected a drop-off on defense after Tech saw a whopping six players on that side of the ball get drafted, including four along the defensive line. However, I didn't think it would look this poor.
The pass rush just isn't anywhere close to as potent, which has exposed some issues in the secondary.
Last year, Texas Tech led the nation in yards per play allowed at 3.9. That number has plummeted to 5.5 yards so far this season, which ranks outside the top 70.
Colorado can hang around in this game at home, where it has historically played much better, especially under head coach Deion Sanders. Meanwhile, Texas Tech hasn't traveled all that effectively under head coach Joey McGuire in recent seasons.
Colorado vs. Texas Tech Trend
Since 2005, Colorado has gone 18-10 ATS (64.3%) as a home 'dog of more than a touchdown. Head coach Deion Sanders has personally gone 3-0 ATS in that role, covering by 8.5 points per game on average.
Pick: Colorado +13.5 (Play to +13)
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Temple +6.5 at USF
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
I'm going back to the well with another South Florida fade after lowly Bowling Green got an easy cover for us last week.
I'd argue South Florida comes into this week as one of the more overrated teams in the nation. Yes, the Bulls own a perfect 4-0 record, but they easily could have lost all three of their games vs. FBS foes:
- outgained, 381-208, by FIU, which went 3-of-7 on fourth downs
- trailed Army by 10 with a few minutes to go before scoring a pair of late touchdowns, including one on fourth down in the final seconds
- Bowling Green led, 6-0, in the fourth quarter last week and finished with only seven fewer yards (214-207)
It has not looked pretty despite an extremely favorable schedule.
Conversely, Temple comes into this game with a 1-3 record but easily could have two more wins.
Toledo somehow pulled off a miraculous win in overtime after facing fourth-and-8 from its own 19-yard line, trailing by 14 with two minutes to go. That will go down as one of the most improbable wins of the entire season.
The Owls also lost last week by four against Army in a game they dominated statistically (459-315 yardage edge) despite finding themselves in a brutal situational spot with the Knights coming off a bye and Temple playing on a short week against a unique offense following a heartbreaking road loss.
Temple has also played the much more difficult schedule (51st vs. 169th, per Sagarin) so far this season.
The Owls also own a massive coaching edge on the sidelines with K.C. Keeler, who has won multiple FCS national titles, vs. Brian Hartline, who will coach just his fifth career game. The Owls will also benefit from an extra day of rest and prep here.
USF is playing much slower this season, and the offense completely lacks explosiveness, which makes it much more difficult to build margin in the favorite role. Temple should have a very good chance of pulling off this upset.
For what it's worth, I haven't bet this game yet since I'm waiting to see if a +7 pops first.
Temple vs. USF Trend
K.C. Keeler is 17-8-2 ATS (65.4%) as an underdog vs. FBS competition.
Pick: Temple +6.5 (Play to +6)
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Louisiana Tech +2 vs. Army
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I just mentioned Army's fortunate victory over Temple last week in a dream situational spot.
Well, the opposite holds true this week for the Black Knights, who find themselves in a much more disadvantageous spot this week, heading out on the road for a second straight game in a nonconference game against a Louisiana Tech team that had a bye last week.
The Bulldogs not only have extra time to prepare for Army's unique offensive scheme, but they should also benefit from facing Army two years ago in a bowl game.
Louisiana Tech accepted that bowl invite very late in the process after Marshall had to pull out due to roster limitations once Charles Huff darted for Southern Miss.
As a result, the Bulldogs ended up playing an abundance of defensive backups who didn't really see any action throughout the regular season. As you might imagine, it didn't look pretty, but a handful of those players are now primary contributors for this underrated LA Tech defense. That experience should pay dividends here.
This matchup also marks one of the largest strength of schedule disparities on the Week 5 slate.
Louisiana Tech has played the sixth-toughest schedule in the country (with road games at Baylor and LSU in a pair of covers), per Sagarin, while Army comes in at 126th.
The Bulldogs could also be close to full strength with the potential return of starting quarterback Blake Baker and one of its best defensive linemen from injury.
Despite the brutal schedule, Louisiana Tech rates very highly in Defensive Line Yards, which is always a positive signal when facing Army. Meanwhile, the Army defense hasn't done anything very well outside of limiting explosive plays.
Louisiana Tech shouldn't have any issues moving the ball against a defense that ranks 135th in Success Rate allowed despite facing an easy schedule and benefiting from the best starting field position in the country.
Louisiana Tech vs. Army Trend
Louisiana Tech head coach Sonny Cumbie has gone 5-1 ATS as a home 'dog during his tenure at Louisiana Tech, covering by nearly a touchdown per game on average.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +2 (Play to PK)
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Arizona -7 vs. Cincinnati
11 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
The market disagrees with me on this one, but I'm selling high on the undefeated Bearcats, who will travel out west (for a very late kick, which has historically been a detriment to Eastern Time Zone teams) for their first road game of the season.
Yes, Cincy has started out 4-0, but it has been far from straightforward despite facing a very favorable schedule to start the season (118th, per Sagarin).
In the opener, the Bearcats beat lowly Boston College by 19 but were actually outgained, 388-339. The Eagles just couldn't get out of their own way with a pair of failed fourth-down attempts and a -2 turnover margin.
Cincinnati also had one of the most improbable comebacks of the season vs. Miami (OH). The RedHawks (who are way down this year) led by 21 at the half before completely imploding in the second half with two giveaways and a pair of missed field goals.
Cincy did have an impressive four-point victory over Kansas State last week, although the Wildcats finished with more yards and led at half.
Bottom line, they're a few bounces away from a 2-2 record, in which case this line would sit closer to 10, in my opinion.
The Bearcats do have a very potent rushing attack behind one of the league's best offensive lines, but Arizona's defense is much stronger against the run.
After losing five defensive backs to the NFL, the Wildcats are vulnerable on the back end, but I don't think Cincy has the pieces in the passing game to fully take advantage.
On the other side of the ball, Cincy has plenty of holes on defense that Noah Fifita can exploit, especially if receiver Giovanni Richardson can return from injury (I expect him to suit up).
He got hurt early in Arizona's close loss at BYU after hauling in five catches in the first quarter. If he doesn't go down with an injury, Arizona would have had a very good chance of pulling off that road upset in a game that still flipped on a late failed fourth-down attempt deep in BYU territory by an inch or two.
I think we're getting the 0-4 ATS Wildcats on the cheap here in a favorable situational spot and on-field matchup.
Arizona vs. Cincinnati Trend
As an underdog in conference games at Louisville and Cincinnati, Scott Satterfield is just 12-23-2 ATS (34.3%), including 0-6 against the close when catching a touchdown-plus.
Pick: Arizona -7 or Better
