The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers take on the Missouri State Bears in Springfield, MO. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Western Kentucky is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -190. The total is set at 61.5 points.
Here’s my Western Kentucky vs Missouri State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 27, 2025.
Western Kentucky vs Missouri State Prediction
- Western Kentucky vs Missouri State Pick: Western Kentucky -4.5 (Play to -6.5)
My Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky best bet is on Western Kentucky to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Kentucky vs Missouri State Odds
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
- Western Kentucky vs Missouri State point spread: Western Kentucky -4.5
- Western Kentucky vs Missouri State over/under: 61.5 points
- Western Kentucky vs Missouri State moneyline: Western Kentucky -190, Missouri State +160
Western Kentucky vs Missouri State Preview
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview: Hilltoppers to Get Right on Offense
Western Kentucky is coming off a misleading final last week in its home win against Nevada. The Toppers didn't play very well, and we saw the offense stall consistently against the Wolfpack defense, which bottled up Western Kentucky quarterback Maverick McIvor throughout.
Western Kentucky didn't score a touchdown in the first half and saw several mistakes, penalties and sloppy execution result in a first-half deficit at home against a team in Nevada that it should've been able to overmatch.
McIvor finished with 216 passing yards, but his three top targets finished with six combined catches and 37 receiving yards.
We saw Western Kentucky run the ball more last week, which was surprising, as the Toppers are averaging just 3.7 yards per rush and rank just 955h nationally in Rush Play Success Rate on offense.
There has been very little explosiveness from the ground attack, but I believe we'll see much more success through the air this week for Western Kentucky.
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview: Bears Blocking Woes to Continue
Missouri State has put together some impressive performances at home, including a respectable showing in a loss against SMU followed by a 42-10 victory over FCS UT Martin last week.
Jacob Clark and the Bears' passing attack have transitioned well to the FBS level this season, as Clark is completing 66.7% of his throws and has eight touchdown passes.
We saw the rushing attack get going for the first time this season, albeit against a weak FCS opponent, as the Bears rushed for 130 yards and three scores on the ground.
The concern for Missouri State has been its performance in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Bears rank 135th nationally in offensive havoc allowed, as Clark is consistently under duress every week.
Missouri State has given up 18 sacks and 39 tackles for loss this season, and the offense against FBS competition has been too reliant on big plays to keep it in games. The style is unreliable and will eventually lead to this team getting blown out.
Western Kentucky vs Missouri State Pick, Betting Analysis
Western Kentucky opens as a short road favorite here, but I don’t think the spread is high enough. I'm going to lay it with Western Kentucky.
This is a bad matchup for Missouri State on both sides. The way you attack the Western Kentucky defense is on the ground, where the Hilltoppers are surrendering 5.6 yards per carry and rank just 123rd defensively in Rush Play Explosiveness given up.
Missouri State’s inability to create running lanes for running back Shomari Lawrence is a concern here, as is the consistent propensity to give up negative plays.
Missouri State wants to throw the ball, and Western Kentucky has a fairly stout secondary, which has only given up 53% completions and 170 yards per game through the air this season.
I'm not confident in the Bears being able to block up front efficiently enough to give Clark time to throw, and Missouri State isn't successful enough in standard downs to avoid “third and long” here.
Missouri State is only converting 29% of its third-down attempts this season (15-51), and Western Kentucky has really played well defensively in the money downs.
The Toppers have allowed just 17-of-59 third-down conversions against them to be successful, and no team this season has converted on third down more than five times against them.
On the other side, I expect McIvor to have a major bounce-back game through the air.
The Western Kentucky offense wants to throw the ball around, and it has three really explosive receivers on the outside who should produce against a Bears defense that's just 133rd in Defensive Pass Play EPA allowed and 124th in Pass Play Success Rate.
We should see very little pass rush against McIvor, as the Bears have only registered five sacks and 18 tackles for loss all season. Plus, the Hilltoppers' offensive line has been excellent in pass protection this season.
We have a team that wants to throw it a ton against a defense that can't stop the pass or generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Pick: Western Kentucky -4.5 (Play up to -6.5)
