College Football Odds, Picks for Wyoming vs UNLV: Value on Favorite?

Wyoming hits the road for a late Friday night tilt with UNLV in Week 11.

The Cowboys picked up a much-needed win last Friday night, beating Colorado State, 25-14. The win propelled the Cowboys to bowl eligibility, and they're still very much alive for a berth in the Mountain West Championship game, though they need to win out and get some help.

At 7-2, UNLV may be one of the best stories in college football this season. For context, since 2001, the Rebels have had one winning season, and that was just a 7-6 campaign.

Now, they're neck and neck with Fresno State for second place in the conference.

Wyoming is built to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage. However, it hasn't done a great job of that this season. The Cowboys are 71st in Offensive Line Yards and 95th in Rushing Success Rate.

The big problem in this matchup is that's where UNLV is best, as the Rebels rank inside the top 50 in both of those categories defensively. That's bad news for a  Wyoming team that runs the ball on 59.8% of its offensive plays.

The key in this game will be Andrew Peasley and the Wyoming passing attack.

UNLV's secondary isn't good, but Peasley hasn't been that effective as a passer. He's very good in play action, which works well with Wyoming's rush-heavy offense, but Peasley has been terrible when the Cowboys get into obvious passing situations. On non-play action attempts this season, Peasley is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt and has a 57.1% completion percentage with a -0.126 EPA/Pass.

Wyoming's defensive metrics are average to below average on the season, but its home and road splits are almost night and day. The Cowboys are allowing 6.3 yards per play on the road compared to just 5.0 at home.

In this game, the Pokes are going to have to stop the run, as UNLV has one of the most rush-heavy offenses in the country. The Cowboys struggle in that aspect, ranking 94th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 118th in Defensive Line Yards.

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UNLV runs the ball 60.1% of the time and has been pretty successful doing so, averaging 4.5 yards per carry to rank 42nd in FBS.

The Rebels have a three-man backfield to constantly give the defense different looks. Vincent Davis Jr. has been the best running back by far, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and ranking top-30 in the country in EPA/Rush.

The key for UNLV's rushing attack is going to be dominating in the trenches because of how weak Wyoming has been up front.

Meanwhile, Jayden Maiava has been awesome during conference play, throwing nine touchdowns and averaging 9.5 yards per attempt. He has literally been one of the most effective and efficient passers in the entire country.

Just take a look at where he sits on the EPA leaderboard.

Image via Sports Info Solutions.

Over 40% of Maiava's pass attempts have gone over 10 yards in the air, and on those throws, he's averaging 13.9 yards per attempt.

The UNLV defense has been incredibly stout against the run and ranks 29th in EPA/Rush Allowed.

The Rebels haven't necessarily been dominant up front, but they aren't allowing opposing backs to break tackles. UNLV has the 26th-best tackling grade, per PFF, which is massive against Wyoming.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and UNLV match up statistically:

Wyoming Offense vs. UNLV Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	95	50
Line Yards	71	45
Pass Success	83	126
Havoc	49	24
Finishing Drives	73	92
Quality Drives	53	58

UNLV Offense vs. Wyoming Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	81	94
Line Yards	79	111
Pass Success	26	85
Havoc	59	50
Finishing Drives	40	61
Quality Drives	7	95

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	111	33
PFF Coverage	51	95
Special Teams SP+	59	15
Middle 8	96	39
Seconds per Play	30.4 (124)	25.2 (35)
Rush Rate	59.8% (24)	60.1% (17)

This is an unbelievable matchup for UNLV. Wyoming has been bad against both the run and the pass with almost all of its bad defensive performances coming on the road.

If UNLV gets out to an early lead and forces Wyoming to play at a fast tempo, this could get out of hand in a hurry.

Additionally, the best against-the-spread record in college football belongs to UNLV.

I have UNLV projected as a -9.1 favorite, so I love the value on them at home at -5 at DraftKings.

Pick: UNLV -5

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