The Youngstown State Penguins take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington on Saturday, Sept. 5. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on SEC Network+.
Kentucky is favored by 21.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2300. Youngstown State, meanwhile, enters as a +21.5 underdog and is +1060 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 62.5 total points.
Here’s my Youngstown State vs. Kentucky prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 5.
Youngstown State vs Kentucky Prediction
- Youngstown State vs. Kentucky Pick: Kentucky Team Total 43.5 Under
My Kentucky vs. Youngstown State best bet is on the under of the Wildcats' lofty team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Youngstown State vs Kentucky Odds
| Youngstown St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -112 | 62.5 -108o / -112u | +1060 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -108 | 62.5 -108o / -112u | -2300 |
- Youngstown State vs Kentucky point spread: Kentucky -21.5 (-108), Youngstown State +21.5 (-112)
- Youngstown State vs Kentucky over/under: 62.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Youngstown State vs Kentucky moneyline: Youngstown State +1060, Kentucky -2300
Youngstown State vs Kentucky College Football Preview
Youngstown State Penguins Betting Preview: A Powerful FCS Foe
If you don't already know the name Beau Brungard, it's far past time to get familiar.
Last year's best-kept secret won the Walter Payton Award (FCS Heisman Trophy) thanks to an absurd 4,300 scrimmage yards, 48 combined touchdowns and just three credited turnovers.
Brungard returns to the Penguins and picked up where he left off in a 43-10 decimation of Mercyhurst to start the season. He combined for 351 yards and five touchdowns (two rushing) in the win.
Youngstown State is far from a pushover buy game for just about anybody in the country.
Its offensive line carries the size of an FBS offensive line, and four of its five starters from last year return. This team has both size and experience rare for an FCS roster.
Of course, we need to see better competition than Mercyhurst, and the difficulty turns up quite a bit this week at SEC foe Kentucky. Last year's offense fared well against Michigan State, finding 24 points.
While Brungard and the offense snatch headlines, the Youngstown State defense fixes to be a pretty good unit this year.
It suffered lapses in 2025 — namely in its November-onward schedule, when it allowed 36 points per game, capped by a second-half implosion against Yale in the playoffs — but other times it was pretty stout.
The stars really align for Youngstown State to make a run in 2026.
Its star quarterback, most of its offensive line, and a good chunk of its defense all return, and it might see an upgrade at defensive coordinator with the veteran hire of former Mercyhurst head coach Ryan Riemedio.
North Dakota State is no longer an obstacle in conference play or in the playoffs. Chips to the middle on the Penguins.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview: Stein Season
Mark Stoops had an objectively terrific run as head coach of Kentucky. But after the program hit a plateau — and even lost some footing with a 9-15 skid the last two years — Stoops and Kentucky decided to part ways.
In comes Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein, who made some aggressive hires and transfer portal moves.
Stein managed to poach Texas A&M defensive coordinator Jay Bateman, with a promise that he gets to call his own plays, and recently-let-go LSU offensive coordinator Joe Sloan.
In comes quarterback Kenny Minchey, who gave CJ Carr a run for his money at Notre Dame — a great sign if you're a Wildcat fan.
The skill corps is a collection of SEC transfers like running back CJ Baxter (Texas) and wide receiver Nic Anderson (Oklahoma). Stein did a nice job putting together a true power conference roster right away.
But in the SEC, you must hold up in the trenches, and I'm not convinced Kentucky does on either side.
That's a problem for Week 2, when UK hosts Alabama. The offensive line is physically massive; inbound transfers average 6-foot-5 and 340 pounds and have combined for 49 FBS starts.
Kentucky returns a bunch of defensive contributors and added 13 transfers to help with depth. The unit slowly improved throughout 2025, holding Auburn to three points and Florida to seven.
However, lapses were too frequent, leading to 30-plus points surrendered in six games in which UK went 0-6. Every defensive starter has Division I starting experience under their belt, and 10-of-11 have Power 4 starting experience.
The transition from Brad White (3-4) to Bateman (4-2-5) is pretty stark, however. Kentucky now needs to field another defensive lineman in a league where quality starters are scant.
Of course, the schedule is murderous, as Kentucky plays 10 power conference foes, plus a high-quality FCS opponent in Youngstown State.
It's one of the most difficult schedules in the country that could keep this otherwise quality roster from achieving some pretty impressive heights.
Youngstown State vs Kentucky Pick, Betting Analysis
Youngstown State was bet down heavily from +27.5 at open to +23.5; the over also moved significantly, from 56.5 to 62.5 points.
With moves this stark, it's worth looking at tangential markets to make sure the math checks out there (and that there weren't any overcorrections). Currently, the odds project Kentucky at 42.5 points and Youngstown State at 19.5.
The combination of Stein and Sloan with the offense projects for a plodding pace for the Wildcats. Last year, Oregon ran a play every 27.5 seconds (95th), and LSU ran one every 28.1 seconds (112th).
Kentucky likely takes the less-plays-means-healthier-team approach, especially against a team like Youngstown State and with Alabama on board. Despite it being his coaching debut, I wouldn't count out a lookahead spot for UK here, either.
On the other side, Youngstown's quality offensive line and playmaking quarterback means it has the potential to extend drives. The Penguins don't run a lightning-quick offense themselves.
Despite the talent, I'm not looking to play over their team total given the inflation from over bets and Youngstown bets.
Rather, this projects as a game with fewer possessions than the market might expect. Stein likely calls a pretty conservative game here with so much new and with two top opponents on deck in Alabama and Texas A&M.
It's Minchey's first game as a starter and, talented though he seems to be, I'm not flying over on totals for a first-time starting QB.
This is an under play for Kentucky's points, not because I'm confident in Youngstown State's defensive ability, but because Kentucky plays it safe and slow for Game 1.
Pick: Kentucky Team Total 43.5 Under
Youngstown State vs Kentucky Betting Trends
