The 2028 presidential election odds on Polymarket and Kalshi have Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff in front at 21¢ and 19¢, even though he has said he has no interest in running.
With Democrats back in control of Congress and Republicans openly debating whether JD Vance should be their standard-bearer, who will be running for president in 2028 is a wide-open question.
No major candidate has formally declared for the presidential election 2028, so the market on who will be the next president is pricing a fragmented field on both exchanges.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current 2028 presidential election odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Jon Ossoff | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Jon Ossoff | YES (19¢) | $526.32 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | JD Vance | YES (15¢) | $666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | JD Vance | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Marco Rubio | YES (12¢) | $833.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | YES (10¢) | $1,000.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Gavin Newsom | YES (10¢) | $1,000.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | YES (9.9¢) | $1,010.10 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Marco Rubio | YES (9.5¢) | $1,052.63 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Gavin Newsom | YES (8.6¢) | $1,162.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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2028 Presidential Election Odds on Polymarket: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's 2028 presidential election winner board prices every candidate from 1¢ to 99¢, so each Yes price maps directly to an implied probability.
A "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if that person wins the election and $0 if anyone else does, and traders can sell at any point before then.
The market closes on November 7, 2028, and the winner is decided by electoral college votes, with a fallback to the person formally selected under the constitutional process if no candidate reaches a majority.
Polymarket quotes both Yes and No for every name in the screenshot, so the No prices below come straight from the board rather than being derived.
Jon Ossoff (YES 21¢ / NO 80¢, -2 pts)
Polymarket makes Ossoff the favorite for the 2028 presidential election at 21¢, a 21% implied probability, even with a 2-point dip on the board.
He won re-election in Georgia 59% to 41% over Mike Collins, an 18-point margin in a state Trump carried by 2.2 points in 2024, according to AP results reported by Newsweek.
Ossoff has said he has no interest in a presidential run and has pledged to serve out his full Senate term, so the price is a bet on electability rather than an announcement.
JD Vance (YES 15¢ / NO 86¢)
Vance trades at 15¢, a 15% implied probability, and is the highest-priced Republican on the board.
The Wall Street Journal reported on November 7 that Vance and his allies are privately debating whether he should run after the GOP's midterm losses, and a New York fundraiser heard from donors who said they could not back him.
Vance blamed the Iran war for the losses in a post on November 4, and Trump said the same day that he did not know whether his vice president would run.
Marco Rubio (YES 12¢ / NO 89¢, +<1 pts)
Rubio sits third at 12¢, a 12% implied probability, and ticked up by less than a point on the board.
Axios reported that his phone filled with messages from supporters urging him to reconsider during the White House election-night watch party, though he said in May that he would not run against Vance.
The State Department dismissed reports that he is weighing a departure from the administration as fabricated.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (YES 10¢ / NO 91¢)
Ocasio-Cortez trades at 10¢, a 10% implied probability, tied with Newsom for fourth on the board.
She told The New York Times in September that she will decide after the midterms between a presidential run and a challenge to Chuck Schumer's Senate seat, which is up in 2028.
She has also acknowledged that the question of her electability is part of that decision, which matters in a market that only pays if a candidate wins the general election.
Gavin Newsom (YES 10¢ / NO 91¢)
Newsom is priced at 10¢, a 10% implied probability, and his second term as California governor ends in January 2027.
He has said he will give a run serious thought after the midterms, and he campaigned in New Hampshire and toured Alabama, South Carolina and North Carolina this fall.
He also told CNN's Jake Tapper in September that he would not run if Kamala Harris launches another campaign, which ties his price to hers.
Other
Everyone else in the Polymarket screenshot is priced at 8¢ or lower, and only DeSantis and Trump are Republicans.
- Ron DeSantis (YES 8¢ / NO 93¢): The Washington Post reported on November 6 that DeSantis is preparing another presidential bid, which he denied, and his term as Florida governor ends in January.
- James Talarico (YES 5¢ / NO 96¢): Talarico flipped Texas' Senate seat on November 3, ending a three-decade Republican hold on statewide offices there, and Axios had already floated him as a possible 2028 running mate.
- Kamala Harris (YES 5¢ / NO 96¢, -<1 pts): Harris has said she goes back and forth on running again, and her decision looms over Newsom's.
- Andy Beshear (YES 4¢ / NO 97¢): The Kentucky governor's pitch is that a Democrat repeatedly elected in a strongly Republican state can win back voters the national party has lost.
- Josh Shapiro (YES 3¢ / NO 98¢): Shapiro won a second term in Pennsylvania 60.3% to 38.4%, according to AP results with 98% of the vote counted, and launched a federal PAC.
- Pete Buttigieg (YES 3¢ / NO 98¢): Emerson College's August poll had him leading both Vance and Rubio 49% to 44%, the strongest showing of any Democrat it tested.
- Donald Trump (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢): The 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice, which rules out a third Trump term.
Presidential Election 2028 Odds on Kalshi: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same presidential election 2028 winner market as a regulated event contract, with Yes and No both tradable on every line and prices quoted to a tenth of a cent.
A Yes contract pays $1.00 if that person wins the presidency and $0 otherwise, and the market has topped $97 million in volume.
Kalshi's displayed Chance percentage can differ slightly from the YES price, so this piece uses the YES price as the headline number and the Chance-based movement shown on the board.
Jon Ossoff (YES 19¢ / NO 82¢, -2 pts)
Kalshi has Ossoff at 19¢, a 19% implied probability, two cents below Polymarket and down 2 points, matching the move on Polymarket.
An Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters in August had him beating Vance 49% to 44% and Rubio 47% to 44%, one of the stronger general-election showings among the Democrats tested.
That poll predates the midterms, so it is a baseline rather than a read on how his Georgia win has landed.
JD Vance (YES 13¢ / NO 88¢)
Vance is priced at 13¢, a 13% implied probability, with no movement shown on the board.
Emerson's August survey had him trailing Buttigieg, Ossoff and Newsom by 5 points and Harris by 4, though he edged Ocasio-Cortez 46% to 44%.
He has also acknowledged a chance that he sits out the race, citing his four children and his wife's dislike of politics.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (YES 9.9¢ / NO 90.2¢, +0.2 pts)
Kalshi puts Ocasio-Cortez ahead of Rubio for third at 9.9¢, a 9.9% implied probability, and she gained 0.2 points.
She is the only Democrat who trailed both Vance and Rubio in Emerson's August head-to-head tests, losing 46% to 44% and 48% to 43%.
Axios reported in late September that she was test-running a Senate bid in upstate New York, which keeps the Schumer route alive alongside the White House.
Marco Rubio (YES 9.5¢ / NO 90.6¢, +0.2 pts)
Rubio trades at 9.5¢, a 9.5% implied probability, up 0.2 points and 2.5 cents below his Polymarket price.
In Emerson's August matchups he ran closer to the Democrats than Vance did, trailing Ossoff 47% to 44% and Newsom 48% to 46% while beating Harris and Ocasio-Cortez 48% to 43%.
That polling edge has not translated into a higher price because Rubio has said he would not run against Vance, so his number depends on whether Vance steps aside.
Gavin Newsom (YES 8.6¢ / NO 91.7¢, +0.2 pts)
Newsom is at 8.6¢, an 8.6% implied probability, up 0.2 points and the lowest-priced of the five names with their own sections here.
Emerson had him beating Vance 49% to 44% and Rubio 48% to 46% in August, and a September PPIC survey found that 51% of Californians approve of his job performance, including 76% of Democrats.
Other
Everyone else in the Kalshi screenshot is priced at 7.7¢ or lower, and Kalshi lists Mark Kelly, JB Pritzker and Raphael Warnock, who do not appear in the Polymarket screenshot.
- Ron DeSantis (YES 7.7¢ / NO 92.5¢, -0.5 pts): DeSantis is the only Republican besides Vance and Rubio above 2¢ on Kalshi, and the Washington Post's report noted that Florida was one of the few conservative strongholds to withstand the Democratic wave.
- Kamala Harris (YES 3.7¢ / NO 96.5¢): Emerson's August poll had her beating Vance 49% to 45% but losing to Rubio 48% to 43%, the largest swing between the two Republicans of any Democrat tested.
- Andy Beshear (YES 3.4¢ / NO 96.7¢): Beshear campaigned in Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin this fall as he builds a national profile.
- Pete Buttigieg (YES 2.8¢ / NO 97.3¢, -0.1 pts): He made a seven-state closing tour that included Georgia and Michigan, and he passed on Michigan's 2026 Senate race to keep 2028 open.
- Josh Shapiro (YES 2.6¢ / NO 97.5¢, +0.1 pts): His Pennsylvania win was a 23.6-point shift toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential vote, per an NBC News calculation, and the I-95 reopening in 12 days has become a symbol of his competence message.
- James Talarico (YES 2.6¢ / NO 97.7¢, -0.2 pts): Axios noted in May that a Talarico win would raise the question of whether he could help Democrats in Texas' 40 electoral votes in 2028, though one political scientist called the idea that running mates deliver states a myth.
- Mark Kelly (YES 2.5¢ / NO 97.6¢, +0.6 pts): Kelly posted the biggest gain among the names in the Kalshi screenshot, and he has said he will seriously consider a run and has a timeline he is not ready to share.
- JB Pritzker (YES 2.1¢ / NO 98¢, +0.1 pts): Pritzker won a third term 59.8% to 36.8% with 91% counted, but Newsweek noted that a big win in a safely Democratic state carries less electoral weight than one in Georgia or Pennsylvania.
- Raphael Warnock (YES 2¢ / NO 98.1¢, +0.1 pts): CNN reported in October that Warnock, unlike fellow Georgia senator Ossoff, has not shut down speculation, saying only that Democrats must get through the midterms first.
- Donald Trump (YES 1.9¢ / NO 98.5¢, +0.5 pts): Trump told a podcast host on November 1 that he would love to run again while acknowledging the constitutional limit, and his price gained 0.5 points.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the 2028 Presidential Election
The two boards agree on the top of the 2028 presidential election odds. Ossoff sits at YES 21¢ on Polymarket and YES 19¢ on Kalshi, while Vance is at YES 15¢ and YES 13¢, respectively.
Rubio is where the rankings split. Polymarket has him third at YES 12¢, while Kalshi has him fourth at YES 9.5¢ behind Ocasio-Cortez at YES 9.9¢, a 2.5¢ gap that is the widest among the five names with their own sections.
Talarico shows the biggest relative gap. He is at YES 5¢ on Polymarket and YES 2.6¢ on Kalshi, nearly double, while Harris is at YES 5¢ versus YES 3.7¢.
Polymarket prices every name that appears in both screenshots higher than Kalshi does. Its Yes and No quotes sum to 101¢ on every name shown, against roughly 100.1¢ to 100.4¢ on Kalshi below the top two, a wider spread that helps explain the pattern but cannot account for a gap as big as Talarico's.
The boards also differ on who appears. Kalshi's screenshot lists Kelly at YES 2.5¢, Pritzker at YES 2.1¢ and Warnock at YES 2¢, none of whom show up in the Polymarket screenshot, which ends with Trump at YES 2¢.
Presidential Election 2028 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The presidential election 2028 board is fragmented. The favorite is only 21¢ on Polymarket and 19¢ on Kalshi, and six names sit at 7.7¢ or higher on both exchanges.
Democrats hold the top slot on both exchanges and eight of the 12 names in the Polymarket screenshot, which fits an electorate that just handed them both chambers of Congress.
The Republican side is a question about the person. Vance blamed the Iran war for the losses, the Journal reported that he and his allies are weighing whether to run, DeSantis denied a Post report that he is preparing a bid, and Rubio has said he would defer to Vance.
That leaves who will be the next president tied to decisions that have not been made yet, and the price of any Republican reflects the odds that he runs as much as the odds that he wins.
Polling adds a counterweight. Emerson's August survey had Democrats beating Vance in four of the five matchups it tested, and Rubio ran better than Vance, yet both boards price Vance higher because a general-election price is also a bet on who wins the nomination.
None of this is settled by a midterm. Newsweek noted that Barack Obama won re-election after Democrats lost 63 House seats in 2010 and Ronald Reagan won in a landslide after Republicans lost 26 House seats in 1982, and midterm and presidential electorates differ.
The next catalysts are decisions. Newsom and DeSantis both leave the governor's office in January, Ocasio-Cortez has to choose between the White House and Schumer's seat, Kelly says he has a timeline, and Vance has said he will sit down with Trump about his plans, so who will be running for president in 2028 should come into focus soon.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Jon Ossoff | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Jon Ossoff | YES (19¢) | $526.32 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | JD Vance | YES (15¢) | $666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | JD Vance | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Marco Rubio | YES (12¢) | $833.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | YES (10¢) | $1,000.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Gavin Newsom | YES (10¢) | $1,000.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | YES (9.9¢) | $1,010.10 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Marco Rubio | YES (9.5¢) | $1,052.63 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Gavin Newsom | YES (8.6¢) | $1,162.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the 2028 Presidential Election on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Who Will Be the Next President? 2028 Presidential Election Odds: Final Thoughts
Ossoff leads a split field at 21¢ on Polymarket and 19¢ on Kalshi, with Vance at 15¢ and 13¢ and Rubio, Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom filling out the top five.
The exchanges agree on the order at the top and disagree on Rubio and Talarico, and the first formal announcements, plus any word from Vance, are the likeliest triggers to reprice who will be the next president.
Presidential Election 2028 FAQs
Who will be running for president in 2028?
Who will be running for president in 2028 is still unsettled, since no major candidate has formally declared. Ossoff, Vance, Rubio, Ocasio-Cortez, Newsom and DeSantis are the six highest-priced names on Polymarket, and Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez and Kelly have each said their decisions come after the midterms.
Who will be the next president according to Polymarket and Kalshi?
Who will be the next president is an open question on both exchanges, with no candidate above 21¢. Ossoff leads at 21¢ on Polymarket and 19¢ on Kalshi, followed by Vance at 15¢ and 13¢.
What are the 2028 presidential election odds right now?
Polymarket has Ossoff at 21¢, Vance at 15¢, Rubio at 12¢, Ocasio-Cortez at 10¢ and Newsom at 10¢. Kalshi has Ossoff at 19¢, Vance at 13¢, Ocasio-Cortez at 9.9¢, Rubio at 9.5¢ and Newsom at 8.6¢.
When is the presidential election 2028?
Election Day is November 7, 2028, and Polymarket's winner market closes at 11:59 PM Eastern that day.
Is Jon Ossoff running for president in 2028?
He has said he has no interest in running and has pledged to serve out his full Senate term, yet both exchanges price him as the favorite.
Can Donald Trump run in the 2028 presidential election?
No. The 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice, although Trump trades at 2¢ on Polymarket and 1.9¢ on Kalshi.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the 2028 presidential election odds?
Polymarket prices every name that appears on both boards higher, with the widest gaps on Talarico at 5¢ versus 2.6¢ and Rubio at 12¢ versus 9.5¢. Kalshi's screenshot also lists Kelly, Pritzker and Warnock, who do not appear in the Polymarket screenshot.
How does a Yes contract on the 2028 presidential election pay out?
A Yes contract pays $1.00 if that person wins the presidency and $0 if anyone else does, so a price of 21¢ implies a 21% chance.
How do I trade the presidential election 2028 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a Yes or No share on the candidate you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before Election Day.
