The top 10 Democratic presidential candidates 2028 are already priced on Polymarket and Kalshi, with Jon Ossoff leading both boards at 25¢ and 26¢ after winning re-election in Georgia.
Democrats retook both chambers of Congress on November 3, which turned the presidential election 2028 into the party's next big question.
No one has formally entered the race, but several of the Democratic presidential candidates on these boards have said their decisions come after the midterms.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Democratic presidential candidates 2028 odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Jon Ossoff | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Jon Ossoff | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | YES (14¢) | $714.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | YES (15¢) | $666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Gavin Newsom | YES (12¢) | $833.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Gavin Newsom | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Kamala Harris | YES (5.9¢) | $1,694.92 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Kamala Harris | YES (6¢) | $1,666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Pete Buttigieg | YES (5.3¢) | $1,886.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Pete Buttigieg | YES (6¢) | $1,666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
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Top 10 Democratic Presidential Candidates 2028 on Polymarket: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee board lists each potential candidate as a Yes/No contract priced from 1¢ to 99¢, so every price maps directly to an implied probability.
A "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if that person wins the Democratic presidential nomination and $0 if anyone else does, and traders can buy or sell at any point before the nomination is decided.
Polymarket quotes both sides for every name in the top 10, so the No prices below come straight from the board rather than being derived.
1. Jon Ossoff (YES 25¢ / NO 76¢, -1 pts)
Polymarket makes Ossoff the 2028 Democratic nomination favorite at 25¢, a 25% implied probability, even after a 1-point dip on the board.
He won re-election in Georgia 59% to 41% over Mike Collins, an 18-point margin in a state Trump carried by 2.2 points in 2024, and he has said he has no interest in a presidential run.
Traders are pricing the electability case, not an announcement.
2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (YES 15¢ / NO 86¢)
Ocasio-Cortez sits second at 15¢, a 15% implied probability, with her own decision split between a presidential run and a 2028 Senate challenge to Chuck Schumer.
She has said she will decide after the midterms, and she campaigned for Democrats in Maine, Michigan, Nevada and California this fall.
Abdul El-Sayed, a candidate she endorsed in the Michigan primary, won the state's open Senate seat on November 3, which supports her generational-change pitch.
3. Gavin Newsom (YES 13¢ / NO 88¢)
Newsom trades at 13¢, a 13% implied probability, and is the one top-three name who has set a public timeline, saying he will give a run serious thought after the midterms.
His Proposition 50 redistricting push helped California Democrats flip five House seats, and two days after the election he commuted the death sentences of every condemned inmate in the state.
He leaves office when Xavier Becerra is sworn in on January 4, 2027.
4. Kamala Harris (YES 6¢ / NO 95¢)
Harris is priced at 6¢, a 6% implied probability, far below her standing in surveys, where the RealClearPolling average through November 1 had her first at 24.2%.
She has said she goes back and forth on running again, and she campaigned in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and New Hampshire this fall.
The gap between the poll number and the price is the widest on the board.
5. Pete Buttigieg (YES 6¢ / NO 95¢, +<1 pts)
Buttigieg is also at 6¢, a 6% implied probability, after a seven-state closing tour that included stops in Georgia and Michigan.
He passed on Michigan's 2026 Senate race to keep 2028 open, and the RealClearPolling average through November 1 had him third at 13.1%, behind Harris and Newsom.
Michigan holds the fifth contest on the DNC's new early calendar.
6. Andy Beshear (YES 5¢ / NO 96¢)
Beshear trades at 5¢, a 5% implied probability. The Kentucky governor chairs the Democratic Governors Association and campaigned in Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin this fall.
His pitch is that a Democrat who has won statewide three times in a state Trump carried by more than 25 points can win back voters the party has lost, and he has said he will decide with his family after the midterms.
7. Josh Shapiro (YES 5¢ / NO 96¢)
Shapiro is at 5¢, a 5% implied probability, after winning a second term in Pennsylvania with 60.3% of the vote to Stacy Garrity's 38.4%.
He launched a federal PAC, but he had not visited an early-window state as of early October, so the board is paying for a swing-state record rather than a campaign in motion.
8. James Talarico (YES 4¢ / NO 97¢)
Talarico is priced at 4¢, a 4% implied probability, after flipping Texas' Senate seat from Ken Paxton and ending a 32-year Democratic losing streak in statewide Texas races.
He will not be sworn in until January, so the price reflects one historic night rather than any presidential groundwork.
9. Mark Kelly (YES 4¢ / NO 97¢)
Kelly sits at 4¢, a 4% implied probability. The Arizona senator told CNN he is seriously considering a run, and his legal fight with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over a Pentagon censure gave him a national profile and a fundraising pitch.
A federal judge blocked the Pentagon's punishment on First Amendment grounds in February.
10. Wes Moore (YES 3¢ / NO 98¢)
Moore trades at 3¢, a 3% implied probability, after cruising to re-election in Maryland over Republican Dan Cox.
He ruled out a 2028 run in 2025 and said he would serve a full term, so the price is a bet that he reverses course.
Democratic Presidential Candidate Longshots on Polymarket
Seven more names trade outside Polymarket's top 10, all at 2¢ or lower, and Dwayne Johnson, Jon Stewart and Stephen A. Smith have a YES side only.
- JB Pritzker (Polymarket YES 2¢ / NO 99¢): The Illinois governor won a third term by roughly 23 points, though a blowout in a safely Democratic state carries less weight than a win in a swing state.
- Rahm Emanuel (Polymarket YES 2¢ / NO 99¢): The former Chicago mayor and ambassador to Japan has published more national policy papers than any other prospect, though polls show few voters have noticed.
- Ro Khanna (Polymarket YES 2¢ / NO 99¢): Allies launched a draft committee called Run Ro on November 5, and Khanna has said he will decide on a bid after the midterms.
- Michelle Obama (Polymarket YES 2¢ / NO 99¢): The former first lady has the name recognition of a frontrunner, but she has repeatedly said she has no interest in running for office.
- Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (Polymarket YES 1¢): A celebrity wildcard with no political record. Polymarket offers only a YES side at 1¢.
- Jon Stewart (Polymarket YES 1¢): A pure name-recognition play at 1¢, with no NO side offered.
- Stephen A. Smith (Polymarket YES 1¢): The ESPN commentator said in April 2025 that he was weighing a run, and Polymarket lists only a YES side at 1¢.
Democratic Presidential Candidates on Kalshi: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same 2028 Democratic nomination field as a regulated event contract, with Yes and No both tradable on every line and prices quoted to a tenth of a cent.
The market resolves to whichever person wins the Democratic presidential nomination, and Kalshi's displayed Chance percentage can differ slightly from the YES price, so this piece uses the YES price as the headline number.
This section follows the same top 10 Democratic presidential candidates 2028 as Polymarket for a clean side-by-side read, and Raphael Warnock's 3.9¢ price on Kalshi is covered with the longshots below.
1. Jon Ossoff (YES 26¢ / NO 75¢, +1 pts)
Kalshi has Ossoff at 26¢, a 26% implied probability, a cent above Polymarket and up 1 point where Polymarket shows him down 1.
Georgia applied for an early-window slot and was not selected, so the board leader would be running from a state outside the first six contests.
2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (YES 14¢ / NO 87¢, +1 pts)
Ocasio-Cortez is at 14¢, a 14% implied probability, and gained 1 point. Axios reported in late September that she was test-running a Senate bid in upstate New York, which makes the Schumer route a live alternative.
ABC's Jonathan Karl noted in August that a New Hampshire poll showed her leading the prospective field.
3. Gavin Newsom (YES 12¢ / NO 89¢, -1 pts)
Newsom trades at 12¢, a 12% implied probability, down 1 point while Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez each gained 1.
CBS followed him across South Carolina in July 2025, and South Carolina now holds the first contest on the DNC calendar. San Francisco Chronicle analysis since the election notes that the field has only gotten more crowded.
4. Kamala Harris (YES 5.9¢ / NO 94.4¢, -0.2 pts)
Kalshi prices Harris at 5.9¢, a 5.9% implied probability, down 0.2 points.
She told Al Sharpton in April that she might run again, the most explicit comment from any of the leading names, but the board treats that as a long path from a poll lead to a nomination.
5. Pete Buttigieg (YES 5.3¢ / NO 94.8¢)
Buttigieg is at 5.3¢, a 5.3% implied probability, with no movement shown and seven-tenths of a cent below Polymarket.
He campaigned in South Carolina in August and helped stage a Michigan unity event after contested primaries, two states that matter early on the new calendar.
6. Andy Beshear (YES 4.7¢ / NO 95.4¢)
Beshear trades at 4.7¢, a 4.7% implied probability. He told Politico he has the best chance of beating JD Vance and has argued the party should nominate a governor.
His second term runs through December 2027, which gives him time that senators and House members do not have.
7. Josh Shapiro (YES 4.5¢ / NO 95.6¢, +0.2 pts)
Shapiro is at 4.5¢, a 4.5% implied probability, and is one of few names to gain on Kalshi's board, up 0.2 points.
His Pennsylvania result was a 23.6-point shift toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential vote, per an NBC News calculation, and the reopening of a collapsed I-95 section in 12 days has become a symbol of his competence message.
8. James Talarico (YES 3.7¢ / NO 96.5¢)
Talarico trades at 3.7¢, a 3.7% implied probability, three-tenths below Polymarket with no movement shown.
Paxton conceded the day after the election, and Texas will send its first Democratic senator in more than 30 years to Washington.
9. Mark Kelly (YES 3.6¢ / NO 96.5¢, +0.1 pts)
Kelly is at 3.6¢, a 3.6% implied probability, up 0.1 points.
He sued the Pentagon over the censure effort and won a preliminary injunction from Judge Richard Leon, and Hegseth said he would appeal.
10. Wes Moore (YES 2.6¢ / NO 97.5¢)
Moore is priced at 2.6¢, a 2.6% implied probability, four-tenths below Polymarket.
A comfortable re-election win gives him a record to point to, but his earlier statement that he would serve a full term keeps the price under 3¢.
Democratic Presidential Candidate Longshots on Kalshi
Kalshi lists nine names outside its top 10, all at 3.9¢ or lower, including five that do not appear on the Polymarket board used for this piece.
- Raphael Warnock (Kalshi YES 3.9¢ / NO 96.3¢, -0.3 pts): Georgia's other Democratic senator trades above Talarico on Kalshi, but he does not appear on the Polymarket board used for this piece. He has made trips to early-window states such as Nevada.
- JB Pritzker (Kalshi YES 2.4¢ / NO 97.7¢, +0.1 pts): Kalshi has the Illinois governor a few tenths above Polymarket after his third-term win.
- Abdul El-Sayed (Kalshi YES 2.2¢ / NO 97.9¢, -0.2 pts): He won Michigan's open Senate seat on November 3 after a primary victory backed by Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, and Kalshi is the only exchange here that lists him.
- Rahm Emanuel (Kalshi YES 2¢ / NO 98.1¢, -0.1 pts): The former Chicago mayor trades level with Polymarket's 2¢, and Kalshi shows him down 0.1 points.
- Ro Khanna (Kalshi YES 1.9¢ / NO 98.3¢, -0.1 pts): With a draft committee launched on November 5, Khanna is the longshot with the most concrete organizing behind him.
- Michelle Obama (Kalshi YES 1.3¢ / NO 99¢): Kalshi prices the former first lady well below Polymarket's 2¢, which fits her repeated statements that she has no interest in running.
- Chris Van Hollen (Kalshi YES 0.9¢ / NO 99.2¢, -0.1 pts): The Maryland senator appears on lists of potential 2028 contenders, but Kalshi prices him below 1¢.
- Mark Cuban (Kalshi YES 0.7¢ / NO 99.4¢, +0.1 pts): The billionaire told Axios he will not run for president, which makes his 0.7¢ price a speculative one.
- Bernie Sanders (Kalshi YES 0.6¢ / NO 99.5¢, +0.1 pts): Sanders would be 87 by the November 2028 election and has suggested he is not interested in another run.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Presidential Election 2028
The two boards agree on the shape of the presidential election 2028 field. Ossoff leads at YES 25¢ on Polymarket and YES 26¢ on Kalshi, Ocasio-Cortez is second at YES 15¢ and YES 14¢, and Newsom is third at YES 13¢ and YES 12¢.
Gaps in the middle of the board are mostly a matter of precision. Polymarket's board shows whole cents while Kalshi quotes tenths, so Harris at YES 6¢ versus YES 5.9¢ is barely a disagreement.
Where there is a real tilt, Polymarket runs richer. Buttigieg is YES 6¢ against YES 5.3¢, Shapiro is YES 5¢ against YES 4.5¢, and Moore is YES 3¢ against YES 2.6¢.
Direction is where the exchanges split. Ossoff is down 1 point on Polymarket and up 1 point on Kalshi, so the leader's price is moving in opposite directions across the two venues.
The boards also differ on who is listed. Kalshi prices Warnock at YES 3.9¢ and El-Sayed at YES 2.2¢, while Polymarket carries Johnson, Stewart and Smith at YES 1¢ with no NO side offered.
Presidential Election 2028 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The presidential election 2028 board is one clear leader and a crowded middle. Ossoff, Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom hold 25%, 15% and 13% on Polymarket and 26%, 14% and 12% on Kalshi, then the next name on either exchange drops to 6%.
The biggest gap is between polls and prices. The RealClearPolling average through November 1 had Harris first at 24.2%, ahead of Newsom at 14.2%, Buttigieg at 13.1% and Ocasio-Cortez at 11.8%, with Ossoff at 9.6%, yet traders price Harris near 6¢ and Ossoff near 25¢. Early surveys measure name recognition, and the market is pricing who it expects to actually be in the race.
The midterms rewired the argument. Ossoff, Shapiro, Pritzker and Moore all won new terms, Talarico flipped a Texas Senate seat, and El-Sayed won Michigan's open one, so the field now includes the winners of the party's best nights.
Decisions are the next catalyst. Newsom leaves office in January and has said he will weigh a run after the midterms, Ocasio-Cortez has to choose between a presidential bid and a Schumer challenge, Khanna's allies have a draft committee in place, and Harris is still going back and forth.
The calendar will also shape pricing once candidates declare. The DNC's early window starts with South Carolina, then Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia, which leaves Iowa and Georgia outside the first six.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Jon Ossoff | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Jon Ossoff | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | YES (14¢) | $714.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | YES (15¢) | $666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Gavin Newsom | YES (12¢) | $833.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Gavin Newsom | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Kamala Harris | YES (5.9¢) | $1,694.92 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Kamala Harris | YES (6¢) | $1,666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Pete Buttigieg | YES (5.3¢) | $1,886.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Pete Buttigieg | YES (6¢) | $1,666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
How to Trade the Democratic Presidential Candidates on Prediction Markets
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Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
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- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Top 10 Democratic Presidential Candidates 2028: Final Thoughts
This is a board with a favorite who says he is not running, a polling leader the market does not believe in, and a field that will not take shape until Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez and the rest decide.
Polymarket and Kalshi sit within about a point of each other on every name among the top 10 Democratic presidential candidates 2028, and the first formal announcements are the likeliest thing to reprice the Democratic presidential candidates board.
Presidential Election 2028 FAQs
Who are the top 10 Democratic presidential candidates 2028 on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, Josh Shapiro, James Talarico, Mark Kelly and Wes Moore are the ten highest-priced names on Polymarket's board, with Ossoff at 25¢ and Moore at 3¢.
Who is the favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination?
Ossoff is the favorite among the top 10 Democratic presidential candidates 2028 at 25¢ on Polymarket and 26¢ on Kalshi, even though he has said he has no interest in running.
Has anyone announced a run for the Presidential Election 2028?
No one has formally entered the presidential election 2028 race. Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez and Khanna have pointed to post-midterm decisions, and allies of Khanna launched a draft committee on November 5.
Which states vote first in the 2028 Democratic primary?
The DNC's early calendar starts with South Carolina, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia.
Why is Kamala Harris priced so low when she leads the polls?
Harris led the RealClearPolling average at 24.2% through November 1, but she trades at 6¢ on Polymarket and 5.9¢ on Kalshi because early polls mostly measure name recognition rather than the likely outcome of a primary that is years away.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the Democratic Presidential Candidates?
Both exchanges rank the top 10 in the same order and sit within about a point of each other, though Kalshi quotes tenths of a cent and lists names like Raphael Warnock and Abdul El-Sayed that Polymarket's board does not show.
Which Democratic presidential candidate longshots are on the board?
Warnock, JB Pritzker, El-Sayed, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, Michelle Obama, Dwayne Johnson, Jon Stewart, Stephen A. Smith, Chris Van Hollen, Mark Cuban and Bernie Sanders all trade at 3.9¢ or lower.
How does a YES contract on the Democratic nominee pay out?
A YES contract pays $1.00 if that person wins the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination and $0 otherwise, so a 25¢ price implies a 25% chance.
How do I trade the Presidential Election 2028 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a Yes or No share on the candidate you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the nomination is decided.
