The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls said it would be close, and the live midterm results have delivered, with Mary Peltola ahead of Dan Sullivan by just 637 first-choice votes with 70% counted.
Polymarket has Peltola at 95¢ and Kalshi has her at 93.8¢, even though early ranked-choice estimates on the ballots counted so far have Sullivan narrowly ahead.
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls are now being tested by tens of thousands of uncounted early and absentee ballots, with the next scheduled count on November 10.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Alaska Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both exchanges while Alaska keeps counting.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (95¢) | $104.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (7¢) | $1,341.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (93.8¢) | $106.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (6.4¢) | $1,466.40 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's event contracts are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if that candidate wins the Alaska Senate election and $0 if not.
The market is titled Alaska Senate Election Winner, and with neither candidate near 50% of first-choice votes, the race cannot be formally decided until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18.
Mary Peltola (YES 95¢ / NO 7¢, +7 pts)
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Peltola at 95¢, implying a 95% chance, up 7 points on the board.
Polymarket's tracker shows her ahead 102,962 votes (48.2%) to 102,325 (47.9%) with 70% counted, a lead of 637, and Decision Desk HQ had her beating its benchmarks in 26 of 40 state house districts on Wednesday.
The outstanding vote is the real driver. Districts where Peltola leads had reported an average of 68.6% of their expected vote, compared with 73.2% where Sullivan leads, which means more of her territory is still uncounted.
Dan Sullivan (YES 7¢ / NO 95¢, -6 pts)
Sullivan is priced at 7¢, a 7% chance, after losing 6 points on the board.
His case is ranked-choice math. A Sullivan campaign memo claims he would win 105,037 to 104,709 if the ballots in hand were tabulated today, and an independent estimate from Alaska News puts him ahead by about 340 votes.
The Alaska Beacon's analysis of the preliminary cast vote record found Sullivan gaining 2,728 votes and Peltola 1,868 once Republican Gerald Heikes and independent Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. are eliminated, a net gain of 860 for the incumbent that more than erases a 637-vote deficit.
Kalshi Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the race as "Alaska Senate winner?" and resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on each side, so the board shows the full spread instead of a single implied number.
That spread is tight here, with the Democratic contract's Yes and No prices adding up to 100.1¢, and Kalshi's rules govern exactly when the market settles, since Alaska's tabulation runs to November 18 and certification is targeted for November 25.
Democratic Party, Mary Peltola (YES 93.8¢ / NO 6.3¢, +5.8 pts)
Kalshi has the Democratic contract at 93.8¢, a 93.8% chance, up 5.8 points, and a $100 ticket shows 94% odds.
The Division of Elections said Wednesday morning that 20,000 early votes and as many as 40,000 absentee ballots were still uncounted on top of the 215,341 already recorded, so the market is pricing a pool larger than a quarter of the count to date.
Alaska News calculates that Peltola finishes ahead if she wins about 50.3% of the remaining vote cast for her or Sullivan, and she has drawn about 58% of the early and absentee ballots counted so far. At 52%, she would finish roughly 2,500 votes ahead.
Republican Party, Dan Sullivan (YES 6.4¢ / NO 93.7¢, -5.8 pts)
The Republican contract costs 6.4¢ for Yes, though Kalshi's displayed chance reads 6.2% and a $100 ticket shows 7%, so the 6.4¢ price is the actual cost to buy.
Sullivan's route is an even split. Alaska News says that if the remaining ballots divide evenly between the two, the senator keeps a narrow lead after ranked-choice transfers, which is why the contract is not priced closer to zero.
A second path runs through the courts. Peltola's 637-vote margin is smaller than the roughly 3,600 first-choice votes for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., the scenario at the center of a Justice Department lawsuit that a federal judge dismissed and the department is appealing, though Sullivan said on CNN that he would accept the results if he loses.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare Against the Peltola vs Sullivan Polls
The two boards agree on the favorite. Peltola sits at YES 95¢ on Polymarket and the Democratic Party at YES 93.8¢ on Kalshi, while Sullivan is at YES 7¢ and the Republican Party at YES 6.4¢.
The gap is mostly spread. Polymarket's ticket shows YES 95¢ and NO 7¢ on Peltola, which adds up to 102¢, while Kalshi's YES 93.8¢ and NO 6.3¢ add up to 100.1¢, so Kalshi's tighter book explains most of the difference.
That spread shows up in the payouts. A $100 ticket on Sullivan returns $1,466.40 on Kalshi against $1,341.00 on Polymarket, while a $100 ticket on Peltola returns $106.14 on Kalshi against $104.00 on Polymarket.
The movement figures are not like for like. Polymarket shows Peltola up 7 and Sullivan down 6, while Kalshi shows 5.8 points in each direction on its displayed chance rather than the Yes price.
Both exchanges are now reading the same count, with Polymarket's tracker showing a 637-vote Peltola lead at 70% counted. Neither board is treating that margin as the story, and both are betting on how the remaining ballots break.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Live Midterm Results: Market Price Influencers
Both exchanges firmed up for Peltola after Wednesday's count, even though her first-choice lead is only 0.3 points. That is a calculated bet on ballots that have not been counted, not on the margin the live midterm results show today.
The final Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had her up 2 to 3 points on first-choice votes, including a 48-46 New York Times/Siena survey and a 47.2-44.1 PollCheck average, so the count so far has run a couple of points tighter. Alaska Survey Research's ranked-choice polling had her at 51-49 in the final round, and she won the August primary by about 8 points.
The transfer math is the counterweight. Alaska News found about 44% of Heikes ballots landing with the senator against 16% for Peltola, while ballots for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. went about 33% to Peltola and 23% to Sullivan.
That analysis comes with a caveat. The preliminary cast vote record leaves out about 11,000 counted ballots and the Election Day ballots from Alaska's 131 hand-count precincts, so the ranked-choice picture can still move.
Election night results typically make up about 70% of the final vote, and consultant Burke Croft told Alaska Public Media that past Alaska counts have shifted by as much as four points. CNN Sightline favors the Democrat, and a Peltola win would be another Democratic pickup in a night when Democrats are projected to win both chambers of Congress.
The calendar is the next catalyst. The state is not required to report more votes until November 10, when most of the remaining early and mail ballots will be counted, with further updates on November 13 and November 18 and certification targeted for November 25.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (95¢) | $104.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (7¢) | $1,341.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (93.8¢) | $106.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (6.4¢) | $1,466.40 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Alaska Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
This is a 637-vote first-choice race priced like a near lock, because the uncounted ballots have leaned toward Peltola and she needs only about half of them to hold the lead through ranked-choice tabulation. The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board and Kalshi sit within about a point of each other, so the exchanges agree on the read even as the count runs tighter than the Peltola vs Sullivan polls.
The November 10 count is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, and the November 18 tabulation is the date that can settle it.
Alaska Senate Race FAQs
What do the latest Alaska Senate race 2026 polls show?
The final Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up about 2 to 3 points on first-choice votes, including a 48-46 New York Times/Siena survey and a 47.2-44.1 PollCheck average. The count so far has her up 0.3 points, 48.2% to 47.9%, with 70% of the vote in.
How do the Peltola vs Sullivan polls compare with the actual count?
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls pointed to a close race and the count is closer than most of them, with a 637-vote first-choice gap. Alaska Survey Research's ranked-choice polling had Peltola ahead 51-49 in the final round, a result the remaining ballots will have to confirm.
What does the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market show right now?
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Mary Peltola at 95¢ and Dan Sullivan at 7¢. Polymarket's tracker shows Peltola ahead 102,962 to 102,325 with 70% counted, a lead of 637 votes.
Where can I follow live midterm results for the Alaska Senate race?
The Alaska Division of Elections posts the unofficial count, and both Polymarket and Kalshi carry live trackers on their Alaska Senate boards. For live midterm results here, the state does not have to report more votes until November 10, though some places may report sooner.
When will the Alaska midterm results be final?
The state plans count updates on November 10, November 13 and November 18, with ranked-choice tabulation on November 18 and certification targeted for November 25. Until then, the midterm results are first-choice votes only.
How many ballots are left to count in Alaska?
The Division of Elections said Wednesday morning that 20,000 early votes remained uncounted and as many as 40,000 absentee ballots could still be added to the 215,341 votes recorded by then. Election night results typically make up about 70% of the final vote.
How does ranked-choice voting affect the Alaska Senate race?
Neither candidate is near 50%, so Republican Gerald Heikes and independent Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. are eliminated and their ballots move to second choices. The Alaska Beacon found Sullivan gaining 2,728 of those votes to Peltola's 1,868 in the ballots counted so far, which is why the remaining vote matters.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the Alaska Senate race?
Polymarket lists the two candidates by name, while Kalshi resolves by winning party. Peltola is at 95¢ on Polymarket versus 93.8¢ for the Democratic Party on Kalshi, and most of that gap is Polymarket's wider spread.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate race on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the side you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the race is decided.
