The Mississippi Senate race 2026 is still uncalled on Thursday, but Democrat Scott Colom's lead has stretched to 1,138 votes on the latest Associated Press count, and prediction markets now treat him as a near lock.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls kept Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith ahead for months, yet the midterm results have pushed Colom's YES price up another 13 points to 97¢ on Polymarket and 12.2 points to 96.4¢ on Kalshi in about a day.
Hyde-Smith is down to 4¢ and 3.9¢, and her path now runs through a few thousand outstanding ballots and a possible court fight.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms as the count drags on.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Scott Colom | YES (97¢) | $102.87 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (4¢) | $2,343.70 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (96.4¢) | $103.46 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (3.9¢) | $2,402.30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Every Polymarket contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢, so the price doubles as an implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if that candidate wins the seat and $0 if not.
The market resolves on the winner of the Mississippi Senate election, and with no runoff in a federal general election, the top vote-getter takes the seat.
Scott Colom (YES 97¢ / NO 4¢, +13 pts)
Polymarket now has Colom at 97¢, a 97% implied probability and a 13-point jump from Wednesday's 84¢.
Its tracker shows him ahead 466,689 to 464,871 (49.0% to 48.9%) with 95% counted, a lead of about 1,800 votes that is wider than the 1,138-vote margin in the Associated Press tally.
A $100 Yes ticket at a 97¢ average price shows just $102.87 to win, which tells you the upside is thin and the only real risk is a late reversal.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 4¢ / NO 97¢, -13 pts)
Hyde-Smith has collapsed from 17¢ to 4¢, a 4% implied chance, and a $100 Yes ticket at a 4¢ average price shows $2,343.70 to win.
Her campaign says it expects to prevail once every legally cast vote is counted, and the remaining pool is small: Secretary of State Michael Watson said about 3,600 mail-in absentee ballots are outstanding, plus an unknown number of affidavit ballots.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's Mississippi Senate race 2026 board is a regulated event contract with Yes and No both tradable on each candidate, and it resolves by winning party.
Its live feed shows 95.6% of the vote counted, with Colom at 464,926 votes (49.0%) and Hyde-Smith at 463,788 (48.9%), and the header now reads D +0.7, up from D +0.4 on Wednesday.
Scott Colom (YES 96.4¢ / NO 3.8¢, +12.2 pts)
Kalshi quotes Colom at 96.4¢, and its Chance reading of 96.2% is up 12.2 points from Wednesday's 84%.
A $100 stake shows a max payout of $103.46, about 59¢ more than Polymarket's $102.87 for the same stake, a small edge that comes from Kalshi's tighter quotes.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 3.9¢ / NO 96.2¢, -12.2 pts)
Hyde-Smith's Chance reading is 3.8%, a tenth of a cent below her 3.9¢ YES price, and a $100 stake shows a max payout of $2,402.30.
She needs the remaining mail-in and affidavit ballots to break her way by more than a thousand votes, while Hinds County, which leans Democratic, still had votes outstanding when the lead reached 1,138.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Mississippi Senate Race 2026
The two boards agree on the favorite and sit within a cent of each other. Colom is YES 97¢ on Polymarket and YES 96.4¢ on Kalshi, while Hyde-Smith is YES 4¢ and YES 3.9¢, respectively.
The real difference is the spread. Polymarket's Yes and No quotes on each candidate add up to 101¢, while Kalshi's add up to roughly 100.1¢ to 100.2¢, so Kalshi charges less to take either side.
That shows up on both ends of the race: Kalshi's NO 3.8¢ on Colom undercuts Polymarket's NO 4¢, and its NO 96.2¢ on Hyde-Smith undercuts Polymarket's NO 97¢.
The live counts also differ. Polymarket's tracker shows a lead of about 1,800 votes at 95% counted, while Kalshi's feed shows 1,138 at 95.6%, and neither price reflects the gap. There is no combo board on either exchange for this race.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith Polls and Midterm Results Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The last Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls had the incumbent up three to four points, and the major raters called the race Likely Republican, so a slide from 17% to 4% for Hyde-Smith is a repricing off hard returns, not off surveys.
The midterm results moved in Colom's direction all day Wednesday. His lead grew from a few dozen votes early in the morning to 1,138 by Wednesday night as batches from Democratic-leaning areas were added, and CBS News reported it still sat just over 1,100 early Thursday.
What is left is small but not nothing. About 3,600 mail-in absentee ballots can be processed over five business days, affidavit ballots are still being reviewed, and Colom said his campaign has attorneys deployed across the state to watch the count.
A legal fight would be unfamiliar terrain. Mississippi's Secretary of State's office told ABC News the state has no formal recount process, so any challenge would run through the courts.
Independent Ty Pinkins, who drew about 2% of the vote, said he hopes Colom wins and that he pulled more votes from Hyde-Smith than from Colom.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Scott Colom | YES (97¢) | $102.87 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (4¢) | $2,343.70 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (96.4¢) | $103.46 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (3.9¢) | $2,402.30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Mississippi Senate Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls never had the Democrat in front, yet both exchanges now price him above 96¢ and treat the Mississippi Senate race 2026 as nearly decided, even though the margin is about a tenth of a percentage point and no outlet has called it.
The remaining mail-in and affidavit ballots, any court challenge and the final certified midterm results are what could still move the board, and a Colom win would make him the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Mississippi since 1982.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 FAQs
What are the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Scott Colom is trading at 97¢ on Polymarket and 96.4¢ on Kalshi, while Cindy Hyde-Smith sits at 4¢ on Polymarket and 3.9¢ on Kalshi.
Has the Mississippi Senate race 2026 been called?
No. As of Thursday, November 5, the Associated Press had not declared a winner, with Colom ahead by 1,138 votes on its count and by about 1,800 votes on Polymarket's tracker.
What did the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls show before Election Day?
The polls had Hyde-Smith ahead by three to four points, including a 52-48 Wedgewood Polls survey and a 43-40 Change Research poll for the Democratic-aligned 365 Project, and the major raters called the race Likely Republican.
How do the midterm results compare with the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls?
The midterm results are well ahead of the polling for Colom, who trailed in every public survey but leads the count, which is why Hyde-Smith's YES price fell from 17¢ to as low as 3.9¢ in about a day.
How many ballots are left to count in Mississippi?
Secretary of State Michael Watson said about 3,600 mail-in absentee ballots were outstanding and could be processed over five business days, along with an unknown number of affidavit ballots.
Is there a recount in the Mississippi Senate race?
Mississippi's Secretary of State's office told ABC News the state has no formal recount process, so any challenge to a razor-thin result would have to go through the courts. There is also no runoff, because the top vote-getter wins.
Why does Kalshi pay more than Polymarket on the Mississippi Senate race?
Kalshi's quotes are slightly tighter. A $100 stake on Colom shows a $103.46 max payout on Kalshi versus $102.87 on Polymarket, and a $100 stake on Hyde-Smith shows $2,402.30 versus $2,343.70.
How do I trade the Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the race is called.
