The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls called it a toss-up, and the live midterm results have sat frozen at a 637-vote Peltola lead since November 4, with Polymarket at 98¢ and Kalshi at 97.3¢ heading into Tuesday's count.
The Division of Elections is expected to post its biggest remaining batch Tuesday, covering almost all of the outstanding early vote and a large group of absentee ballots.
Newsweek's ranked-choice estimate has Sullivan narrowly ahead on the ballots counted so far, so the Peltola vs Sullivan polls will be tested by whether the remaining ballots tilt toward Peltola.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Alaska Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both exchanges on the eve of Alaska's next count.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (98¢) | $101.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (4¢) | $2,291.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (97.3¢) | $102.57 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (3¢) | $3,121.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's event contracts are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if that candidate wins the Alaska Senate election and $0 if not.
The market is titled Alaska Senate Election Winner, and with neither candidate near 50% of first-choice votes, the race cannot be formally decided until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18.
A methodology note: Polymarket's trade tickets only show each candidate's own odds, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against the opponent's quoted Yes price. Alaska's ballot also carries other candidates and ranked-choice tabulation, so those No prices are approximations rather than exact quotes.
Mary Peltola (YES 98¢ / NO 4¢, flat)
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Peltola at 98¢, implying a 98% chance, and a $100 ticket wins $101.00.
Polymarket's tracker still shows her ahead 102,962 votes (48.2%) to 102,325 (47.9%) with 70% counted, the same 637-vote margin that has stood since November 4, and the price has not budged from Friday.
The case for 98¢ is the shape of the uncounted vote. Alaska Public Media reports Tuesday's update should include almost all of the remaining early vote plus a large batch of absentee ballots, mostly from off the road system.
Dan Sullivan (YES 4¢ / NO 98¢, flat)
Sullivan is priced at 4¢, a 4% chance, and a $100 ticket would win $2,291.00.
His case is arithmetic. Newsweek estimates the senator would finish about 330 votes ahead after ranked-choice transfers on the ballots counted so far, roughly 105,290 to 104,960, and would stay narrowly ahead if the uncounted ballots split evenly.
Gov. Mike Dunleavy told WABC radio on Sunday that the batch due this week will determine who holds the lead, a reminder that a single update could erase Peltola's 637-vote edge in either direction.
Kalshi Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the race as "Alaska Senate winner?" and resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable, so the board shows the full spread instead of a single implied number.
Kalshi's tracker shows 74.1% of votes counted with the Democrat ahead 102,962 to 102,325, and volume has reached $38,239,409, up from $28.4 million on Friday.
Kalshi's rules govern exactly when the market settles, since Alaska's tabulation runs to November 18 and certification is targeted for November 25.
Democratic Party, Mary Peltola (YES 97.3¢ / NO 2.8¢, -0.1 pts)
Kalshi has the Democratic contract at 97.3¢, a 97.3% chance, though the displayed chance reads 97.2% and is down 0.1, and a $100 ticket pays $102.57.
The chart has flattened near 97% after the early-November climb, which fits a count that has not moved in five days.
The contract is effectively a bet on Tuesday's batch. The Sullivan campaign's own analysis left out 10,805 votes from rural precincts, which have strongly favored Peltola, according to the Anchorage Daily News.
Republican Party, Dan Sullivan (YES 3¢ / NO 97.3¢, +0.1 pts)
The Republican contract costs 3¢ for Yes, with Kalshi's displayed chance at 2.8%, up 0.1, and a $100 ticket shows 3% odds and a $3,121.33 payout.
Sullivan's path needs the remaining vote to split almost evenly. The senator's campaign memo says he needs about 49.5% of the two-way vote left to count, a threshold that sits just under a coin flip.
The political side is still unresolved. The Justice Department's appeal is pending, Fox News reported that Dunleavy has suggested he may not certify a Peltola victory, and the House Oversight Committee has opened its own probe.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare as the Peltola vs Sullivan Polls Await Tuesday's Count
Both boards sit above 97% for Peltola, with Polymarket a touch higher. Peltola is at YES 98¢ on Polymarket and the Democratic Party at YES 97.3¢ on Kalshi, while Sullivan is at YES 4¢ and the Republican Party at YES 3¢.
The gap is mostly spread. Polymarket's two Yes prices add up to 102¢, while Kalshi's YES 97.3¢ and YES 3¢ add up to 100.3¢, and the Peltola gap between the exchanges has narrowed to 0.7¢.
The payouts tell the sharper story. A $100 ticket on Peltola returns $102.57 on Kalshi against $101.00 on Polymarket, while a $100 ticket on Sullivan returns $3,121.33 against $2,291.00, a long-shot gap roughly double Friday's.
The movement figures are essentially flat. Polymarket shows no change, while Kalshi's displayed chance is down 0.1 for the Democrat and up 0.1 for the Republican.
Neither tracker has changed in five days, so both prices are a read on Tuesday's batch rather than on anything the exchanges can see in the numbers today.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Live Midterm Results: Market Price Influencers
The weekend produced almost no price movement because it produced no new votes, and the live midterm results are exactly where they stood on November 4. Kalshi's volume kept climbing anyway, from $28.4 million on Friday to more than $38.2 million, so traders are still adding positions into a frozen count.
The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up two to three points on first-choice votes, and the count has her up 0.3, which leaves the final margin to the ballots still sitting in state offices. Newsweek puts those at about 51,000 early and absentee ballots, plus 10,528 absentee ballots sent out but not yet returned.
The ranked-choice arithmetic is what keeps this from being a lock. Newsweek's Sunday estimate has Peltola needing about 50.3% of the remaining vote after transfers, and the Sullivan campaign's memo says the senator needs about 49.5% of the two-way vote, so both camps' math puts the threshold within a point of an even split.
That is why the composition of Tuesday's batch matters more than its size. Alaska Public Media expects it to include almost all of the outstanding early vote and a large group of absentee ballots from off the road system, and the Peltola vs Sullivan polls will finally meet a meaningful share of real ballots.
The Division of Elections plans to release raw ranking data with each update, so traders will get a fresh read on second choices Tuesday. Newsweek also reported that more of Sullivan Jr.'s supporters ranked Peltola next than ranked the senator, which is the main reason the transfer math has stayed so close.
The legal calendar adds a tail risk. A federal judge dismissed the Justice Department's suit, and the department's appeal could be moot if Sullivan wins or if Peltola's margin exceeds the roughly 3,600 votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a bar her 637-vote lead has not cleared.
After Tuesday, the next scheduled updates are Friday, November 13 and Wednesday, November 18, with certification targeted for November 25.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (98¢) | $101.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (4¢) | $2,291.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (97.3¢) | $102.57 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (3¢) | $3,121.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Alaska Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
This is a 637-vote race priced like a near lock, because the uncounted ballots are expected to lean toward Peltola even though ranked-choice math on the counted vote still tilts toward Sullivan. The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board and Kalshi sit less than a point apart, so the exchanges agree on the read.
Tuesday's count is the likeliest trigger for a repricing in either direction, since it is the biggest batch left to test the Peltola vs Sullivan polls, and the November 18 tabulation can settle it.
Alaska Senate Race FAQs
What do the latest Alaska Senate race 2026 polls show?
The final Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up about 2 to 3 points on first-choice votes, including a 48-46 New York Times/Siena survey. The count so far has her up 0.3 points, 48.2% to 47.9%, and it has not changed since November 4.
How do the Peltola vs Sullivan polls compare with the actual count?
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls pointed to a close race, and the count has matched that with a 637-vote first-choice gap. The remaining ballots will show whether the polls' small Peltola edge holds once ranked-choice tabulation arrives on November 18.
What does the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market show right now?
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Mary Peltola at 98¢ and Dan Sullivan at 4¢. Polymarket's tracker shows Peltola ahead 102,962 to 102,325 with 70% counted, a lead of 637 votes.
Where can I follow live midterm results for the Alaska Senate race?
The Alaska Division of Elections posts the unofficial count, and both Polymarket and Kalshi carry live trackers on their Alaska Senate boards. For live midterm results here, remember that every update before November 18 shows first-choice votes only.
When is the next Alaska Senate vote count?
The Division of Elections is scheduled to post results Tuesday, November 10, which is expected to be the most substantial update, followed by Friday, November 13 and Wednesday, November 18. The Tuesday batch should include almost all of the remaining early vote and a large group of absentee ballots from off the road system.
When will the Alaska midterm results be final?
Ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18, the deadline for overseas absentee ballots, and certification is targeted for November 25. Until then, the midterm results are first-choice votes only.
How many ballots are left to count in Alaska?
Newsweek reported that about 51,000 early and absentee ballots are in state hands but uncounted, on top of roughly 216,000 already tallied. Another 10,528 absentee ballots had been sent out but not yet returned.
What share of the remaining ballots does Peltola need to win?
Newsweek's estimate says Peltola needs about 50.3% of the remaining vote to win after ranked-choice transfers, and 58.3% to win outright. The Sullivan campaign's own memo says the senator needs about 49.5% of the two-way vote in what is left.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the Alaska Senate race?
Polymarket lists the two candidates by name, while Kalshi resolves by winning party. Peltola is at 98¢ on Polymarket versus 97.3¢ for the Democratic Party on Kalshi, and a $100 Peltola ticket pays $101.00 on Polymarket against $102.57 on Kalshi.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate race on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the side you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the race is decided.
