The Mississippi Senate race 2026 is still uncalled on Monday, six days after Election Day, but Democrat Scott Colom leads by 2,574 votes on the latest Associated Press count and trades at 99¢ on Polymarket and 98.6¢ on Kalshi.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls had Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith ahead, yet the midterm results have moved one way since Tuesday, with Colom's lead widening each day while Hyde-Smith has slipped to 2¢ and 1.5¢.
The next catalyst arrives Tuesday, when the window to count affidavit ballots closes.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms heading into the final stretch of the count.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Scott Colom | YES (99¢) | $100.91 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (2¢) | $4,574.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (98.6¢) | $101.31 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (1.5¢) | $5,631.66 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices each Mississippi contract from 1¢ to 99¢, and because a "Yes" share settles at $1.00 for the winner and $0 for the loser, the price is the market's probability.
The market resolves on the winner of the Mississippi Senate election, which is decided by plurality with no runoff.
A methodology note: Polymarket's ticket now quotes only the Yes price on each candidate, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their opponent's quoted Yes price. Independent Ty Pinkins is also on the ballot, so treat those figures as approximations.
Scott Colom (YES 99¢ / NO 2¢, +1 pt)
Polymarket has Colom at 99¢, a 99% implied probability and a point above Friday's 98¢, and the board's 1.01x multiplier leaves almost no room for profit.
Its tracker shows him ahead 468,339 to 465,643 (49.1% to 48.8%) with 95% counted, a margin of about 2,700 votes that runs slightly ahead of the 2,574-vote Associated Press margin.
A $100 Yes ticket shows $100.91 to win, less than a dollar of upside on a position that still carries legal risk.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 2¢ / NO 99¢, -1 pt)
Hyde-Smith is at 2¢, a 2% implied chance, and a $100 Yes ticket shows $4,574.00 to win, in line with the board's 50.0x multiplier.
Her campaign says thousands of votes remain from dozens of Republican counties, but the Mississippi Free Press reports that most of what is left is affidavit ballots, and she would need a significant number of them to break her way.
So far they have not. In an early tally of 503 processed affidavit ballots, Colom took 401 and Hyde-Smith 96, and in Itawamba County, where she leads overall 81.4% to 15.6%, she won only 70.9% of the affidavit ballots to Colom's 24.9%.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's board is a regulated event contract that resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on each candidate.
Volume has climbed to more than $39.8 million, up from $33 million on Friday, and the feed shows 96.9% of the vote counted with Colom at 467,930 (49.1%) and Hyde-Smith at 465,356 (48.8%), matching the Associated Press tally.
Scott Colom (YES 98.6¢ / NO 1.6¢, +0.4 pts)
Kalshi has Colom at 98.6¢, and its Chance reading of 98.6% is up 0.4 points.
A $100 stake shows a max payout of $101.31, 40¢ more than Polymarket's $100.91.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 1.5¢ / NO 98.6¢, -0.4 pts)
Hyde-Smith trades at 1.5¢ with a 1.4% Chance reading, half a cent below Polymarket's 2¢ quote.
A $100 stake shows a max payout of $5,631.66, about $1,060 more than Polymarket's $4,574.00 and up from a gap of roughly $620 on Friday.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Mississippi Senate Race 2026
The exchanges agree on the outcome. Colom is YES 99¢ on Polymarket and YES 98.6¢ on Kalshi, while Hyde-Smith is YES 2¢ and YES 1.5¢, respectively.
The gap shows up on the longshot, where Kalshi's YES 1.5¢ is now 25% cheaper than Polymarket's YES 2¢, which is why the $100 payouts sit more than $1,000 apart.
The overround tells the same story. Polymarket's two Yes prices add up to 101¢, while Kalshi's add up to 100.1¢, and Kalshi's NO 1.6¢ on Colom and NO 98.6¢ on Hyde-Smith both undercut the derived Polymarket figures of NO 2¢ and NO 99¢.
The tallies are close but not identical, with Polymarket's tracker at about 2,700 votes and Kalshi's feed at 2,574, and neither price reacts to the difference. There is no combo board on either exchange for this race.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith Polls and Midterm Results Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls are old news, and the board is now trading the count. The Associated Press margin has grown from 43 votes on election night to 1,138 by Wednesday evening, 2,029 early Friday and 2,574 by Friday evening, and Colom has said it has widened every day since.
The midterm results also show how far the map moved. Harrison County on the Gulf Coast went from a 17-point Hyde-Smith margin in 2020 to about 4 points in the unofficial count, according to The Hill.
The affidavit pile is where Hyde-Smith needed ground to come back, and it has not. The Mississippi Free Press found that Colom outperformed his overall margin in affidavit ballots in several North Mississippi counties, though counties rejected a meaningful share, including 26.7% in Alcorn County and 34% in Itawamba County.
Tuesday is the key date. Affidavit ballots can be counted until November 10, and the state's deadline to certify the election is November 13.
Legal action is still possible. Mississippi Republican Party chair Mike Hurst has said the party is working hand-in-glove with Hyde-Smith's campaign to prepare, and MS NOW reports Mississippi is the only state with no recount law, so a recount would need a court order.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Scott Colom | YES (99¢) | $100.91 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (2¢) | $4,574.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (98.6¢) | $101.31 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (1.5¢) | $5,631.66 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Mississippi Senate Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
Few Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls ever pointed to this outcome, yet the Mississippi Senate race 2026 is now priced as close to a formality, with Hyde-Smith at 2¢ and 1.5¢ and the lead growing each day.
Tuesday's affidavit deadline, the November 13 certification date and any court action are the last catalysts, and a Colom win in the final midterm results would end a Democratic Senate drought in Mississippi that dates to 1982.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 FAQs
What are the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Scott Colom is trading at 99¢ on Polymarket and 98.6¢ on Kalshi, while Cindy Hyde-Smith sits at 2¢ on Polymarket and 1.5¢ on Kalshi.
Has the Mississippi Senate race 2026 been called?
No. As of Monday, November 9, no winner had been declared, with Colom ahead 467,930 to 465,356 on the Associated Press count, a margin of 2,574 votes.
What did the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls show before Election Day?
The polls had Hyde-Smith ahead by three to four points, including a 52-48 Wedgewood Polls survey and a 43-40 Change Research poll for the Democratic-aligned 365 Project, and the major raters called the race Likely Republican.
How do the midterm results compare with the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls?
The midterm results are well ahead of the polling for Colom, who trailed in the final surveys but now leads by 2,574 votes, which is why Hyde-Smith's YES price has dropped from 17¢ on Wednesday to 2¢ on Polymarket and 1.5¢ on Kalshi.
How are the remaining Mississippi affidavit ballots breaking?
Mostly toward Colom so far. The Mississippi Free Press reported that Colom took 401 of 503 affidavit ballots in an early tally, and he has beaten his overall margin in affidavit ballots even in Hyde-Smith-friendly counties, though counties have rejected roughly a quarter to a third of those ballots.
When will the Mississippi Senate race be certified?
Affidavit ballots can be counted through Tuesday, November 10, and November 13 is the state's deadline to certify the election.
Is there a recount in the Mississippi Senate race?
Mississippi has no recount law, so a recount would require a court order. There is also no runoff, because the top vote-getter wins.
How do I trade the Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the race is called.
