The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls called this a coin flip, and the live midterm results are proving it, with Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan trading the lead all through election night.
Polymarket and Kalshi still price Peltola as a heavy favorite at 87¢ and 88¢, because the ballots left to count are expected to lean her way.
Ranked-choice tabulation is not scheduled until November 18, so the Peltola vs Sullivan polls will be tested against a count that keeps moving for two more weeks.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Alaska Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both exchanges while the Alaska count continues.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (87¢) | $114.94 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (88¢) | $113.64 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (14¢) | $714.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's event contracts are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins the Alaska Senate election and $0 if not.
The market is titled Alaska Senate Election Winner, and traders can buy or sell shares at any point before it resolves, which may not happen until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against the opponent's quoted Yes price. Alaska's ballot also carries other candidates and ranked-choice tabulation, so those No prices are approximations rather than exact quotes.
Mary Peltola (YES 87¢ / NO 13¢, +16 pts)
On the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board, Peltola is trading at 87¢, implying an 87% chance, and she is up 16 points on the night.
That price came even though Polymarket's own tracker had Sullivan ahead with 68% counted, 100,747 votes (48.5%) to her 98,951 (47.7%), a lead of roughly 1,700.
Traders are looking past that margin because the uncounted vote skews her way. Many unreported precincts are rural communities expected to favor Peltola, and the vote-type breakdown reported by NBC News shows mail and early in-person ballots going 57% to 41% her way while Election Day ballots went 51% to 44% for Sullivan.
Dan Sullivan (YES 13¢ / NO 87¢, -16 pts)
Sullivan is priced at 13¢, a 13% chance, after giving back 16 points even while holding the early lead.
His case is the incumbent's: he led much of the first-choice count, told supporters he is confident the final tally will return him for six more years, and had Donald Trump campaigning with him at an October 13 rally in Wasilla.
His backers also point to 2020, when he won by 12.7 points, roughly triple his polling lead, as proof that Alaska surveys can understate him.
Kalshi Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the race as "Alaska Senate winner?" and resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on each side, so the board shows the full spread instead of a single implied number.
The market had $15,258,615 in volume at the time of the screenshot, a deep book for a single Senate race, and Kalshi's rules govern exactly when it settles, since Alaska's tabulation runs to November 18 and certification is targeted for November 25.
Democratic Party, Mary Peltola (YES 88¢ / NO 13¢, +18 pts)
Kalshi has the Democratic contract at 88¢, an 88% chance, up 18 points as the count turned her way.
With 74.3% of votes counted, Kalshi's tracker showed Peltola ahead 102,701 to 102,075, a margin of just 626 votes after Sullivan held the lead for part of the evening.
A lead that thin would not normally justify an 88¢ price, which tells you the market is pricing the absentee and rural ballots that were still outstanding, not the current margin.
Republican Party, Dan Sullivan (YES 14¢ / NO 87¢, -18 pts)
The Republican contract sits at 14¢ for Yes, though Kalshi's displayed chance reads 12%, down 18 points, so the 14¢ price is the actual cost to buy.
Sullivan's path runs through the first-choice numbers and the third names on the ballot. The 626-vote gap is far smaller than the 3,583 first-choice votes for independent Daniel J. Sullivan, who shares the senator's name on the ballot, or the 4,821 for Gerald Heikes.
If neither major candidate clears 50%, ranked-choice transfers from those roughly 8,400 ballots could decide who wins.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare as Peltola vs Sullivan Polls Tighten
The two boards agree on the favorite and nearly the exact price. Peltola sits at YES 87¢ on Polymarket and the Democratic Party at YES 88¢ on Kalshi, while Sullivan is at YES 13¢ and the Republican Party at YES 14¢.
The only daylight is in the spread. Kalshi's two Yes prices add up to 102¢, while Polymarket's add up to 100¢, and Kalshi's quoted No sides of NO 13¢ for the Democrat and NO 87¢ for the Republican match the numbers derived on Polymarket.
The movement figures are not like for like. Polymarket shows a 16-point move, while Kalshi's 18-point move is measured on its displayed chance rather than the Yes price.
The two trackers also captured different points in the count, 68% counted with Sullivan ahead on Polymarket and 74.3% counted with Peltola ahead on Kalshi, yet the Peltola price differs by only 1¢ between them.
That is the clearest signal in the data. Traders on the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board and on Kalshi are pricing the outstanding ballots and the ranked-choice calendar, not whichever candidate happened to lead the last batch.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Live Midterm Results: Market Price Influencers
Both exchanges repriced hard toward Peltola on election night, with Polymarket up 16 points and Kalshi up 18, even though neither tracker ever showed her with a comfortable lead. Kalshi's one-month chart had the Democratic contract mostly in the 70s through October before the jump.
The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls pointed to this finish. The final New York Times/Siena survey, fielded October 23 to 30, had Peltola ahead 48% to 46%, an earlier Times/Siena poll had her up 50% to 43%, and Quantus Insights found the race tied at 46% in early October.
Other Peltola vs Sullivan polls landed in between. Rasmussen had Peltola up 44% to 42% in mid-October, Public Policy Polling had her up 48% to 47%, and the PollCheck average on October 27 had her at 47.2% to Sullivan's 44.1%.
The live midterm results show why traders trust the direction of that polling, but the count itself is built to be slow. Alaska has 131 hand-count precincts, election night totals included early votes cast October 19 through 29, and absentee counts are scheduled for November 10 and November 13.
Domestic mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive by November 13, and overseas ballots count through November 18, the same day as the ranked-choice tabulation. Certification is targeted for November 25, and a federal judge has dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit over certification, though the department is appealing.
The next update to watch is the November 10 absentee count, since election officials plan to release raw ranking data with each scheduled update, giving traders an early look at how second choices are breaking before the official tabulation. Until then, the midterm results are first-choice votes only.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (87¢) | $114.94 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (88¢) | $113.64 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (14¢) | $714.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Alaska Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
This is a one-point race priced like a clear Peltola win, because the ballots still outstanding lean her way and the ranked-choice tabulation is two weeks off. The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board and Kalshi sit within a cent of each other, so the exchanges agree on the read even as the vote count swings.
The November 10 and November 13 absentee updates are the likeliest triggers for a repricing, and the November 18 tabulation is the date that can settle it.
Alaska Senate Race FAQs
What do the latest Alaska Senate race 2026 polls show?
The final Alaska Senate race 2026 polls pointed to a coin flip with a slight Peltola edge. The last New York Times/Siena survey, fielded October 23 to 30, had Peltola ahead 48% to 46%, and the PollCheck average on October 27 had her at 47.2% to Sullivan's 44.1%.
What do the latest Peltola vs Sullivan polls show?
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls ranged from a 46-46 tie in a Quantus Insights survey to a 50-43 Peltola lead in an earlier New York Times/Siena poll. Rasmussen had Peltola up 44-42 and Public Policy Polling had her up 48-47 in mid-October.
What does the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market show right now?
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Mary Peltola at 87¢ and Dan Sullivan at 13¢, a 16-point move toward Peltola. Polymarket's tracker showed Sullivan ahead 100,747 to 98,951 with 68% counted, so the price is built on the ballots still outstanding.
Where can I follow live midterm results for the Alaska Senate race?
The Alaska Division of Elections posts the unofficial count, and both Polymarket and Kalshi run live trackers on their Alaska Senate boards. For live midterm results here, remember that the early numbers show first-choice votes only.
When will the Alaska midterm results be final?
Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18, and the state is targeting November 25 for certification. Domestic mail ballots can arrive through November 13 and overseas ballots through November 18, so the midterm results will keep changing until then.
Why are Polymarket and Kalshi pricing Peltola as the favorite when Sullivan led the early count?
Both exchanges are pricing the ballots that have not been counted yet. Many unreported precincts are rural communities expected to favor Peltola, and early and mail ballots have broken for her in the vote-type breakdown, while Election Day votes favored Sullivan.
How does ranked-choice voting affect the Alaska Senate race?
If no candidate clears 50% of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to each voter's next choice until two remain. With independent Daniel J. Sullivan at 3,583 first-choice votes and Gerald Heikes at 4,821, those transfers are larger than the 626-vote gap on Kalshi's tracker.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the Alaska Senate race?
Polymarket lists the two candidates by name, while Kalshi resolves by winning party, but the prices are within a cent: Peltola at 87¢ versus the Democratic Party at 88¢, and Sullivan at 13¢ versus the Republican Party at 14¢.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate race on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the side you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the race is decided.
