The Mississippi Senate race 2026 is still uncalled, with Democrat Scott Colom and Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith separated by just 43 votes on the latest Kalshi count.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls had the incumbent ahead by three to four points, but the midterm results are telling a different story, and Colom's YES price jumped 69 points overnight to 84¢.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi now price Colom as the favorite, even though the race has not been called and votes are still being counted.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms while Mississippi finishes counting.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Scott Colom | YES (84¢) | $119.05 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (17¢) | $588.24 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (84¢) | $119.05 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (17¢) | $588.24 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Mississippi contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
The Mississippi Senate race 2026 market resolves on the winner of the November 3 general election, and because Mississippi has no runoff in federal general elections, the top vote-getter takes the seat.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their opponent's quoted Yes price. Independent Ty Pinkins is also on the ballot and has 2.1% of the count, so treat the No figures as approximations.
Scott Colom (YES 84¢ / NO 17¢, +69 pts)
Polymarket prices Colom at 84¢, an 84% implied probability, after a 69-point surge from roughly 15% before returns started coming in.
Its tracker shows him ahead 461,370 to 459,201 (49.1% to 48.8%) with 95% counted, a lead of about 2,100 votes on that feed.
Colom closed the gap late, when Hinds County reported and he led there 61,793 to 14,702, and he also won DeSoto County 51.9% to 45.7%, a county Donald Trump carried by 24 points in 2024.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 17¢ / NO 84¢, -70 pts)
Hyde-Smith led for most of Tuesday night, and a 17¢ Yes share implies a 17% chance that she holds on once the remaining ballots are added.
Her campaign says its internal numbers show she wins, while the Colom campaign estimates 10,000 to 15,000 affidavit ballots are still outstanding statewide.
A 17¢ Yes share returns about $5.88 for every $1 staked if she survives the count.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the Mississippi Senate race 2026 as a regulated event contract with Yes and No both tradable on each candidate, and the market resolves by winning party.
The Mississippi board has already traded more than $20.3 million in volume, and Kalshi's live feed showed 95.6% of the vote counted with Colom marked D +0.4.
Scott Colom (YES 84¢ / NO 17¢, +69 pts)
Kalshi matches Polymarket on Colom at 84¢, and the board's Chance reading of 84% moved up 69 points as well.
Its feed shows Colom with 462,821 votes and Hyde-Smith with 462,778, a 43-vote margin that is far thinner than Polymarket's tracker shows, which suggests traders are pricing the ballots still outstanding rather than the current gap.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 17¢ / NO 84¢, -69 pts)
Hyde-Smith's Chance reading sits at 16%, a cent below her 17¢ YES price, so YES is the figure to trade against.
An estimated 44,000 votes, roughly 4% of the expected total, were still uncounted on Wednesday morning, and her path runs through those ballots and the affidavit review.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Mississippi Senate Race 2026
The two boards are identical on both candidates. Colom sits at YES 84¢ on Polymarket and YES 84¢ on Kalshi, while Hyde-Smith sits at YES 17¢ on both.
Kalshi's quoted No prices land on the same numbers as Polymarket's derived ones, with NO 17¢ on Colom and NO 84¢ on Hyde-Smith, so the derivation note on Polymarket's side is not hiding a gap.
The one visible difference is in the live counts. Polymarket's tracker shows a lead of about 2,100 votes at 95% counted, while Kalshi's feed shows 43 votes at 95.6%, yet neither price moved off 84¢ and 17¢ because of it.
There is no combo board on either exchange for the Mississippi Senate race 2026, so the contract design is the same: a straight two-way bet on who wins the seat.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith Polls and Midterm Results Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The final Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls leaned toward the incumbent. Wedgewood Polls had Hyde-Smith up 52-48 on October 12-14 in a two-way test of 511 likely voters, and a Change Research survey for the Democratic-aligned 365 Project had her up 43-40 on October 21-22, with Pinkins at 6%.
Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rated the contest Likely Republican in the last week, and Trump held a rally for Hyde-Smith in Corinth on October 26. The midterm results blew past that consensus, which explains a 69-point swing in the market.
The gap between the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls and the live count is the story, and Pinkins is the wild card in a race this tight. The independent, who was the 2024 Democratic nominee, has 19,935 votes (2.1%), far more than the margin between the two major candidates.
The counting rules now drive the price. Mississippi has no runoff and no automatic recount, so a recount requires a court order, counties have five business days to count absentee and affidavit ballots, and affidavit voters have five business days to show ID. Hinds County paused its count shortly after midnight and planned to resume Wednesday morning.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Scott Colom | YES (84¢) | $119.05 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (17¢) | $588.24 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (84¢) | $119.05 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (17¢) | $588.24 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Mississippi Senate Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
This is a market that flipped from long shot to favorite in one night, with both exchanges at 84¢ on Colom while the count sits within 43 votes on one feed and about 2,100 on the other.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls pointed the other way, but a Colom win would make him the first Democrat to win a Mississippi Senate race since John Stennis in 1982, so the affidavit review, the remaining Hinds County and Delta ballots, and any court-ordered recount are the variables to watch before the race is called.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 FAQs
What are the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Scott Colom is trading at 84¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Cindy Hyde-Smith sits at 17¢ on both exchanges.
Has the Mississippi Senate race 2026 been called?
No. As of Wednesday, November 4, the race was too close to call, with Colom ahead by 43 votes on the Kalshi count and by about 2,100 votes on Polymarket's tracker, and thousands of absentee and affidavit ballots still to be counted.
What did the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls show before Election Day?
The polls had Hyde-Smith ahead. Wedgewood Polls had her up 52-48 in an October 12-14 survey of likely voters, and a Change Research poll for the 365 Project, a Democratic-aligned firm, had her up 43-40 on October 21-22, with independent Ty Pinkins at 6%.
How do the midterm results compare with the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls?
The midterm results are running well ahead of the polling for Colom, who trailed in every survey above but leads the count. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rated the race Likely Republican in the final week.
Is there a recount or runoff in the Mississippi Senate race?
There is no runoff, because the top vote-getter wins a federal general election. Mississippi also has no automatic recount, so one would require a court order.
How many ballots are left to count in Mississippi?
One local estimate put roughly 44,000 votes, about 4% of the expected total, still outstanding on Wednesday morning, and the Colom campaign estimated 10,000 to 15,000 affidavit ballots. Counties have five business days to count absentee and affidavit ballots.
Why do the Polymarket and Kalshi vote counts differ on the Mississippi Senate race?
The two boards show different live tallies, with Polymarket's tracker at 461,370 to 459,201 and Kalshi's at 462,821 to 462,778, but the prices are identical at 84¢ for Colom and 17¢ for Hyde-Smith.
How do I trade the Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the race is called.
