The 2026 IPO calendar is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched in years. After SpaceX's landmark public debut reopened institutional appetite for large private company listings, attention has shifted to the next wave — and three names dominate the conversation: Anthropic, OpenAI, and Discord. Each has been the subject of sustained IPO speculation, each carries a distinct probability on Kalshi's live prediction market, and each tells a different story about where the market thinks the 2026 window actually closes.
Kalshi — the CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange — has active contracts on all three, with $1.7 million in total trading volume on the IPO series. The live prices as of today put Anthropic at 73%, Discord at 39%, and OpenAI at a perhaps surprising 22% — a hierarchy that looks nothing like conventional expectations and is worth understanding before placing any position.
Register with the Kalshi promo code ACTION, trade $25 on any IPO contract or any other eligible Kalshi predictions, and unlock up to $500 in bonus trading funds.
Latest IPO Market Kalshi Odds
The OpenAI number is the one that demands an explanation. The company has enormous public recognition, confidentially filed for an IPO in June, and has blue-chip underwriters attached. So why does the crowd give it only a 22% chance of confirming a 2026 IPO when Anthropic — which filed around the same time — sits at 73%? The answer is in how the two companies have navigated the post-SpaceX IPO environment, and what their advisors have signaled about timing.
Anthropic — 73%: The Favorite
Anthropic filed confidentially in June and moved fast — Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs named as underwriters within weeks. Private market valuation has climbed steadily since, reaching approximately $1.11 trillion by July, up 15% from its May Series H-1 round. Secondary share price moved from $589 to a $676 implied price in roughly four weeks. The crowd is pricing confirmed momentum.
At 73¢, a user purchasing 35 contracts spends approximately $25.55 — clearing the qualifying threshold in one trade. A confirmed Anthropic IPO returns $35, roughly $9.45 in gross profit before fees.
Discord — 39%: The Value Play
Discord has been private for over a decade, last valued at roughly $15 billion, and has been IPO speculation fodder for years. The 39% price reflects a real but uncertain probability — more than a coin flip but far from a sure thing. What's changed is the broader IPO environment: SpaceX's listing has reopened institutional appetite for large private companies in a way that gives Discord's long-running speculation more credibility than it had in prior years.
At 39¢, a user purchasing 65 contracts spends approximately $25.35. A confirmed Discord IPO returns $65, roughly $39.65 in gross profit before fees — the best gross return available across the three YES contracts.
OpenAI — 22%: The Surprising Long Shot
OpenAI also filed confidentially in June. The low contract price isn't about doubt in the company — it's about timing. Reports suggest OpenAI's advisors have grown cautious after SpaceX's post-IPO performance, concerned retail investor appetite for mega-cap tech has softened. The crowd is pricing a meaningful probability that the listing slips into 2027.
At 22¢, the YES contract has the highest per-contract upside of the three — a confirmed IPO returns $1 on a 22¢ position. The NO contract at 78¢ is the complementary high-probability trade for users who believe the delay narrative holds.
Kalshi Promo Code ACTION — Quick Overview
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Promo Code | ACTION |
| New User Offer | Trade $25, Get Up to $500 Bonus |
| Qualifying Trade | $25 cumulative — any eligible Kalshi market |
| Bonus Delivery | Automatic once threshold is met |
| Winning Trade Required? | No |
| Eligibility | New users only · 18+ · Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, or OH |
The Kalshi promo code ACTION and Kalshi referral code ACTION are interchangeable — entering either at registration activates the same welcome offer. The $25 qualifying trade can go on any of the IPO contracts below, any other Kalshi market, or split across multiple positions. Among all prediction market promosavailable right now, the $500 ceiling makes this the most valuable new-user offer in the space.
How to Trade Contracts With the Kalshi Promo Code ACTION
Sample positions using the qualifying threshold:
| Position | Contracts | Approximate Cost | Return if Correct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic YES at 73¢ | 35 | $25.55 | $35 (+$9.45 profit) |
| Discord YES at 39¢ | 65 | $25.35 | $65 (+$39.65 profit) |
| OpenAI YES at 22¢ | 114 | $25.08 | $114 (+$88.92 profit) |
| OpenAI NO at 78¢ | 33 | $25.74 | $33 (+$7.26 profit) |
Contract prices subject to change. Verify on Kalshi before trading.
The most logical two-position spread using the Kalshi promo code ACTION bonus: Anthropic YES at 73¢ to clear the qualifying threshold on the highest-conviction position, then redirecting the bonus credit toward Discord YES at 39¢ for the higher-upside complementary trade. Both can be funded without additional capital beyond the initial deposit.
How to Claim the Kalshi Promo Code ACTION
- Tap any Kalshi link on this page or use the Kalshi promo code ACTION link directly.
- Download the Kalshi app on iOS or Android or register on the desktop site.
- Enter ACTION in the referral code field before completing registration.
- Complete the required identity-verification step.
- Fund your account via debit card, Apple Pay, or bank transfer.
- Complete at least $25 in qualifying trades on any of the IPO contracts above or any other available market.
- Collect your bonus automatically — no customer service contact needed.
Why Kalshi for IPO Prediction Markets
IPO contracts are one of the clearest use cases for Kalshi's peer-to-peer structure. Unlike sports betting on a game that resolves in three hours, IPO contracts can run for months — which means live repricing as new information enters the market is the entire point. An Anthropic underwriter update, an OpenAI S-1 filing, a Discord funding round that signals a longer private runway — each one moves contract prices immediately and gives traders who are already positioned the ability to react before the broader market catches up.
There are no analyst price targets for Anthropic stock, no consensus multiples for OpenAI equity, and no brokerage account where you can buy Discord shares today. What exists is the Kalshi contract board — and Kalshi is one of the best prediction market apps for exactly this kind of financial event trading, where the platform's CFTC-regulated structure and $1.7 million in total IPO series volume give institutional-grade pricing signals on events that have no other public market.
Kalshi IPO Markets FAQ
What is the "Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?" Kalshi market
It's a series of event contracts on Kalshi's KXIPO-26 market, each tracking whether a specific private company officially announces an IPO before January 1, 2027. Contract prices between 0¢ and 100¢ reflect the crowd's implied probability — winning contracts settle at $1 per share, losing ones expire at $0.
How does the KXIPO-26 contract resolve?
A contract resolves Yes if any of three events occur before December 31, 2026: the SEC declares the company's S-1 effective, the IPO is officially priced, or a securities exchange assigns the company a ticker. The company doesn't need to begin trading — confirmation alone is the trigger.
Can I trade both sides of the KXIPO-26 contracts?
Yes. Every contract in the series has a YES and NO side. If you think Anthropic, OpenAI, or Discord won't confirm an IPO before year-end, buying the NO contract at the current price is the way to position on that outcome.
What is the Kalshi promo code ACTION offer?
Enter ACTION at registration, complete $25 in qualifying trades on any eligible Kalshi market including the KXIPO-26 series, and Kalshi credits up to $500 in bonus trading funds automatically. No winning trade required.
Is Kalshi regulated?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market and the first event-contract exchange to receive full federal regulatory approval in the United States. You trade peer-to-peer contracts against other users, not against a house.
