The Arizona Diamondbacks sit just a single game back of the National League Wild Card cutoff as they open a series at Oracle Park.
The San Francisco Giants have little left to play for down the stretch, but Rafael Devers still gives their lineup a puncher's chance in any game.
Thursday's Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction centers on a rookie starter trying to survive his fifth career outing against a red-hot Arizona lineup.
Here's a look at the best MLB picks today for this NL West matchup, built around the current MLB odds on Polymarket.
We're also passing along the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!
Best MLB Picks Today: Total Bases Prop – Corbin Carroll (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Corbin Carroll going over 2+ total bases tonight.
Carroll was named NL Player of the Week for August 10-16, going 9-for-22 with seven extra-base hits during that stretch.
He already has 15 triples this season, more than double any other player in baseball, and he picked up his 100th career home run earlier this month.
Arizona's lineup has leaned on his blend of power and speed all year, and he's shown he can produce extra bases even in games where the average doesn't show it.
He's also facing a rookie starter making just his fifth big league appearance, which is exactly the kind of matchup that tends to produce well.
The board has this contract priced at 44¢ for Yes. We're buying $100 of Yes at an average price of 44.86¢, since a trade of this size moves the price slightly off the board's quoted rate. That works out to roughly 222.9 shares ($100 ÷ $0.4486), with each share worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Carroll records 2 or more total bases: the shares pay out $1 each, for a profit of roughly $115.77 on the $100 stake.
- If he falls short: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This is roughly a 2.16x payout on the stake, a reasonable risk/reward shape for a player riding this much recent momentum, though nothing on a baseball diamond is ever guaranteed.
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Best MLB Picks Today: Total Bases Prop – Rafael Devers (Editor's Pick)
We're also taking a position on Rafael Devers going over 2+ total bases tonight.
Devers has been San Francisco's one reliable power source all season, and he's chasing a milestone few Giants hitters have ever reached.
He crushed a three-run homer Monday against Cincinnati, his 27th of the year, and he's on pace to become just the second Giants player since 2005 to reach 30 home runs in a season.
San Francisco's lineup was gutted by injuries and trades this week, including the loss of Willy Adames, which means Devers is seeing a heavier share of the at-bats and the pitching staff's attention.
He's also facing a Diamondbacks starter who has struggled with a 5.60 ERA across his first four career starts.
The board has this contract priced at 43¢ for Yes. We're buying $100 of Yes at an average price of 43¢, which works out to roughly 232.6 shares ($100 ÷ $0.43), with each share worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Devers records 2 or more total bases: the shares pay out $1 each, for a profit of roughly $124.86 on the $100 stake.
- If he falls short: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This is roughly a 2.25x payout on the stake, in line with the risk/reward on Carroll's ticket above, and another example of how these total bases props reward hitters seeing extra volume right now.
Diamondbacks vs Giants MLB Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts
Polymarket's money line contracts resolve based simply on which team wins the game outright, with no run differential involved.
Right now the board has this game essentially even, which lines up with two teams playing very different types of baseball for very different stakes.
Diamondbacks (50%, Yes 50¢)
Arizona's price ticked up 4% today, likely tied to Carroll's recent surge and the extra motivation of the Wild Card race.
Giants (50%, Yes 50¢)
San Francisco's price slipped 4% in the same move, even with Devers still capable of deciding a game on one swing.
Diamondbacks vs Giants Spread and Total Predictions
Diamondbacks -1.5 (38%, Yes 38¢)
The market has this contract down 5% today, suggesting traders see tonight's MLB odds favoring a closer game than a comfortable Arizona win.
Over 7.5 Runs (55%, Yes 55¢)
The total slipped 3% but still leans toward a higher-scoring game, which tracks with a rookie starter on the mound for Arizona and a Giants lineup that has hit 13 home runs over its past 10 games.
Home Run Props Today: Top 10 Home Run Bets
Some contracts on this board only have one side actively priced, so we're only showing the side that's live.
- Rafael Devers (Home Run 1+: 17%): Devers leads the Giants in homers and is fresh off a three-run shot Monday, making him the clear top price on this board.
- Corbin Carroll (Home Run 1+: 13%): Carroll's power surge over the past two weeks, including his 100th career homer, keeps him near the top of this list.
- Grant McCray (Home Run 1+: 12%): McCray was recalled from Triple-A this week as part of San Francisco's shorthanded outfield mix.
- Drew Gilbert (Home Run 1+: 10%): Gilbert has settled into a regular outfield role for the Giants as the roster has thinned out.
- Max Kepler (Home Run 1+: 10%): Kepler's veteran left-handed power gives him a price bump against a rookie righty.
- Lars Nootbaar (Home Run 1+: 9%): Nootbaar's price ticked down 4% today after a quieter recent stretch at the plate.
- Nate Furman (Home Run 1+: 9%): Furman is one of the Triple-A call-ups filling in for San Francisco's injured regulars.
- Gabriel Moreno (Home Run 1+: 8%): Moreno remains Arizona's everyday catcher and a steady if unspectacular power threat.
- Nolan Arenado (Home Run 1+: 8%): Arenado's power has cooled from his peak seasons but he's still a threat in this park's dimensions.
- Geraldo Perdomo (Home Run 1+: 5%): Perdomo rounds out the board as more of a table-setter than a power threat.
Hits Props Today: Best Bets on Polymarket
Hits props tend to move less on any single day's news, so the board here mostly reflects each player's underlying season-long contact rate.
- Gabriel Moreno (Hit 1+: 72%): Moreno's contact-oriented approach behind the plate makes him the board's safest hits price.
- Corbin Carroll (Hit 1+: 67%): Carroll's current hot streak supports a price near the top of this list.
- Geraldo Perdomo (Hit 1+: 64%): Perdomo's high on-base skills carry over into a strong hits price even without much power.
- Rafael Devers (Hit 1+: 65%): Devers' price dipped 5% today, though his overall track record keeps him well inside the top half of this board.
- Lars Nootbaar (Hit 1+: 65%): Nootbaar holds steady here despite the dip in his home run number above.
- Drew Gilbert (Hit 1+: 63%): Gilbert's price slipped 5% but he remains a regular in San Francisco's lineup for now.
- Nate Furman (Hit 1+: 61%): Furman's price fell 5% as the market adjusts to a limited MLB track record.
- Max Kepler (Hit 1+: 60%): Kepler's price ticked down 4% but his contact skills keep him mid-board.
- Nolan Arenado (Hit 1+: 60%): Arenado's price dropped 2% but he remains a reliable bat in Arizona's lineup.
- Grant McCray (Hit 1+: 57%): McCray closes out the top 10 as the newest face in San Francisco's outfield rotation.
Total Bases Props Today: Best Bets on Polymarket
Total bases props reward hitters who can turn a single at-bat into extra bases, and this board leans toward the game's two biggest power threats.
- Corbin Carroll (Total Bases 2+: 44%): Carroll tops this board on the strength of his recent extra-base surge, as covered in the Editor's Pick above.
- Rafael Devers (Total Bases 2+: 43%): Devers sits right behind Carroll here, backed by his team-leading power numbers this season.
- Gabriel Moreno (Total Bases 2+: 42%): Moreno's contact skills give him a respectable total bases price even without much home run power.
- Drew Gilbert (Total Bases 2+: 39%): Gilbert's price dropped 2% but he remains a steady presence in San Francisco's order.
- Nate Furman (Total Bases 2+: 38%): Furman's price fell 1% as the market keeps pricing in his short MLB track record.
- Grant McCray (Total Bases 2+: 37%): McCray's price slipped 3% but he still profiles as a doubles threat in this ballpark.
- Geraldo Perdomo (Total Bases 2+: 37%): Perdomo's game is built more around getting on base than extra bases, which caps his price here.
- Max Kepler (Total Bases 2+: 37%): Kepler holds steady in the middle of this board.
- Nolan Arenado (Total Bases 2+: 31%): Arenado's price dipped 1% and sits at the bottom of this list.
Strikeout Props Today: Best Pitching Bets on Polymarket
Some contracts on this board only have one side actively priced, so we're only showing the side that's live, and we're including both threshold levels the board has offered for each pitcher today.
- Jose Cabrera (Strikeouts 3+: 67%): Cabrera's price fell 13% today, and the rookie righty carries a 5.60 ERA through his first four career starts.
- Jose Cabrera (Strikeouts 4+: 46%): The higher threshold drops well below coin-flip odds, reflecting how inconsistent Cabrera's swing-and-miss stuff has been so far.
- Landen Roupp (Strikeouts 4+: 65%): Roupp's price dipped 3% but he's still striking out 22.6% of batters faced on the season.
- Landen Roupp (Strikeouts 5+: 45%): Roupp has faded from an excellent start to the year into a rougher recent stretch, allowing 14 runs over his last 19.1 innings, which caps this higher threshold below 50%.
Diamondbacks vs Giants Price Analysis: What's Moving the Market
The biggest swing on the board is Jose Cabrera's strikeout price, down 13% on the lower threshold, as the market keeps recalibrating a rookie who has been up and down since his debut.
On the hitting side, Corbin Carroll and Rafael Devers sit atop nearly every category, which makes sense given how much recent production both have put up.
These are the kind of MLB odds shifts that reward following a lineup's usage patterns closely, not just season-long stats, and it's part of why these best MLB picks today lean so heavily on recent form.
For readers newer to this format, Action Network's prediction markets hub is a good starting point for understanding how these contracts are priced across sports.
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Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction: Final Thoughts
This is a game with two very different motivations sitting on either side of an even money line. Arizona is fighting for a Wild Card spot, while San Francisco is mostly playing out the string with a patchwork lineup.
That imbalance is exactly why the player prop board looks the way it does tonight, with Carroll and Devers priced well above the rest of both rosters. Anyone building a broader slate around today's prediction market apps should keep an eye on how these two hitters are trending in the days ahead.
The pitching matchup adds another layer of uncertainty, with a rookie making just his fifth career start opposite a Giants starter who has cooled off considerably from his hot start to the season.
Diamondbacks vs Giants Prediction FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, and it's available through the links in this article.
Who is favored in tonight's Diamondbacks vs Giants prediction?
Polymarket currently has this game priced as a true toss-up, with both the Diamondbacks and Giants sitting at 50%.
What is the current total for Diamondbacks vs Giants?
The over/under sits at 7.5 runs, with the over priced at 55% as of this writing.
What's the most notable player prop on the board?
Rafael Devers leads the home run and total bases boards, while Corbin Carroll's recent hot streak has pushed his prices near the top of nearly every hitting category.
How do Polymarket's event contracts work?
Each contract resolves to $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the traded price reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome.
What does the Polymarket promo code unlock?
New users who sign up with the promo code ACTION can unlock a $20 trading bonus to use on the platform.
When does tonight's market resolve?
These contracts resolve once the final score of tonight's Diamondbacks vs Giants game at Oracle Park is official.
What's the Editor's Pick for tonight's slate?
We're taking positions on both Corbin Carroll and Rafael Devers to each record 2 or more total bases, based on their recent power surges detailed above as part of these best MLB picks today.
