Monday's five-game MLB slate on Polymarket gives traders a loaded board, from the Braves chasing another win in Atlanta to a marquee Yankees-Angels tilt out west.
Below you'll find our best MLB picks today across the moneylines, spreads, totals and home run props for all five games, along with one editor's pick locked in per matchup.
This is also the spot for the sharpest MLB predictions today if you're deciding which contracts to trade first.
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Giants vs Braves: Best MLB Picks Today
Atlanta is riding a hot streak and sits 82-55 on the year, while San Francisco has been unwatchable on the road at 56-81 with its season effectively over.
Bryce Elder (8-7, 3.95 ERA) gets the ball for the Braves, while the Giants turn to Anthony Molina as an opener in just his fifth big-league appearance.
Best Spread Pick Today – Braves -1.5 (Editor's Pick)
We're taking Atlanta to win by more than 1.5 runs, priced at 46¢ on the board.
The Braves are 25 games over .500 at home this season and have been one of the best clubs in baseball at Truist Park.
Elder has walked one batter or fewer in 11 of his 25 starts, and he should keep this Giants lineup from doing much early damage.
San Francisco is just 23-45 on the road all year, and Molina making his fifth career appearance as an opener is a soft matchup for a Braves club that's won seven straight.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at an average price of 46.5¢ works out to roughly 215 shares, with a listed payout of $208.36.
- If Atlanta wins by 2+ runs: the position pays out at $208.36, a profit of $108.36 on the $100 stake.
- If Atlanta wins by 1 or loses outright: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's not a coin-flip payout, but a Braves team this hot at home rarely needs much more than 1.5 runs of breathing room.
Moneyline
Atlanta is priced at 64¢ (64%) to win outright, while San Francisco sits at 36¢ (36%) after shedding 5 points on the day.
That gap reflects the seven-game winning streak on one side and a Giants club that shelved ace Logan Webb to save him for Tuesday's opener against Pittsburgh instead.
Spread
Atlanta to win by over 1.5 runs sits at 46% Yes and 54% No, a market that's shaded 4 points toward the Giants covering today.
Total
The over 7.5 runs is priced at 63% Yes, though that number has swung a huge 33 points on the day as the board settled in around Molina's uncertain workload.
Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Matt Olson and Rafael Devers sit atop the board as the two most likely home run hitters in this game.
- Matt Olson (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Olson has been Atlanta's most consistent power threat all year and draws a favorable matchup against an inexperienced opener.
- Rafael Devers (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Devers leads the Giants in homers this season and remains San Francisco's best shot at doing damage against Elder.
- Michael Harris II (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 84%): Harris has been a steady middle-of-the-order bat for a Braves lineup that's been clicking on all cylinders lately.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 84%): Acuña's price slid 5 points today but he's still a threat to run into one against a first-time opener.
- Drake Baldwin (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Baldwin has quietly provided pop from the catcher spot for Atlanta all season.
Strikeout Props
Bryce Elder's 5+ strikeouts contract sits at 41% Yes, while Molina's 3+ strikeouts prop for his short opener stint is priced at 48% Yes.
Elder has gone at least five strikeouts in a majority of his starts this season, making that number a reasonable floor against a fading Giants lineup.
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Tigers vs Twins: Best MLB Picks Today
Detroit (63-73) and Minnesota (65-72) are both fighting to stay relevant in a muddled AL Central race.
Jackson Jobe (1-1, 3.93 ERA) starts for the Tigers, coming off a Tuesday outing where he worked 4.1 innings and allowed just one earned run.
Best Home Run Prop Pick Today – Dillon Dingler (Editor's Pick)
We're buying Dillon Dingler's 1+ home run prop, priced at just 14¢ on the board.
Minnesota's pitching staff has a bloated 5.08 ERA over its last 10 games and has already given up nine home runs in that stretch.
Dingler has emerged as a legitimate power threat behind the plate for Detroit this season, and this is a longshot price on a soft Twins staff.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at an average price of 14¢ works out to roughly 714 shares, with a listed payout of $679.21.
- If Dingler homers: the position pays out at $679.21, a profit of $579.21 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's a true longshot swing, but the nearly 7x payout multiple makes it a small-stakes dart worth throwing on a leaky Twins staff.
Moneyline
Minnesota is favored at 54¢ (54%) at home, with Detroit sitting at 46¢ (46%) after gaining a point on the day.
Neither club has separated itself from the pack, and this line reflects a genuine toss-up between two .500-ish teams.
Spread
Minnesota to win by over 1.5 runs is priced at 36% Yes, down 9 points on the day as the market leans toward a tighter finish.
Total
The over 8.5 runs sits at a dead-even 50% Yes and 50% No, about as balanced a total as you'll find on the board today.
Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Kody Clemens and Royce Lewis lead the board as the most likely home run hitters in this one.
- Kody Clemens (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Clemens has carved out a role as a power bat off the bench for Detroit and tops this board.
- Royce Lewis (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 84%): Lewis remains one of Minnesota's most dangerous hitters when he's in the lineup.
- Dillon Dingler (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 87%): Dingler is our Editor's Pick above, and he's shown real over-the-fence pop from the catcher spot this year.
- Spencer Torkelson (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 87%): Torkelson's price barely budged today, a sign the market sees his form as steady rather than trending.
- Colt Keith (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 88%): Keith rounds out a Tigers lineup with several bats capable of hitting one out on any given night.
Strikeout Props
Jackson Jobe's 4+ strikeouts contract sits at 50% Yes, while Taj Bradley's 6+ strikeouts prop for Minnesota is priced at 48% Yes.
Jobe has punched out 15 batters over his first four starts this season, and a 4+ number is right in line with his usual workload.
Brewers vs Cubs: Best MLB Picks Today
Milwaukee owns the best record in baseball at 85-52 and is running away with the NL Central, while Chicago (77-59) is still holding a comfortable wild card spot.
Kyle Harrison (10-3, 2.79 ERA) takes the mound for the Brewers against Clay Holmes (5-6, 2.26 ERA) for the Cubs, one of the sharpest pitching matchups on the entire slate.
Best Total Pick Today – Under 9.5 Runs (Editor's Pick)
We're buying the No side on the over 9.5 total runs, priced at 52¢ on the board.
Milwaukee's pitching staff has been elite lately, posting a 2.30 ERA over its last 10 games.
Harrison has struck out 127 batters in just over 100 innings this season and is coming off five innings of one-run ball against the Mets.
Holmes has been just as sharp for Chicago, carrying a 2.26 ERA into this start despite an unlucky win-loss record.
Two front-line arms this good going head-to-head is exactly the kind of matchup that keeps a total from getting out of hand.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at an average price of 51.5¢ works out to roughly 194 shares, with a listed payout of $188.67.
- If the total finishes at 9 runs or fewer: the position pays out at $188.67, a profit of $88.67 on the $100 stake.
- If the game finishes at 10 runs or more: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This is a modest, near-coin-flip payout, but the pitching matchup gives it real analytical support beyond just the number on the board.
Moneyline
This one is split right down the middle, with Milwaukee at 50¢ (50%) and Chicago at 50¢ (50%) despite the Brewers holding a far superior record.
The tight line speaks to how good both starting pitchers are tonight, neutralizing most of the gap between these two rosters.
Spread
Milwaukee to win by over 1.5 runs sits at 39% Yes, suggesting the market expects a tighter finish even with Harrison on the mound.
Total
The over 9.5 runs is priced at 49% Yes, which lines up with our Editor's Pick above on the No side given the caliber of both starters.
Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki top the board as the most likely home run hitters tonight.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (1+ HR: Yes 24%, No 77%): Crow-Armstrong has been one of the Cubs' most dynamic bats all season and leads this board.
- Seiya Suzuki (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Suzuki's price ticked up a point today, a small sign of positive momentum heading in.
- Jake Bauers (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): Bauers has carved out a productive role in the middle of Chicago's lineup this year.
- Jackson Chourio (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 83%): Chourio remains one of Milwaukee's most explosive young bats even against a tough lefty.
- Alex Bregman (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Bregman gained a point today and continues to anchor the middle of the Brewers order.
Strikeout Props
Clay Holmes' 5+ strikeouts prop is priced at 41% Yes, while Kyle Harrison's 6+ strikeouts contract sits at 44% Yes.
Harrison is averaging over 11 strikeouts per nine innings this season, making that 6+ number very much in play.
Yankees vs Angels: Best MLB Picks Today
New York (78-59) just took three of four from Boston, while Los Angeles (52-85) is on pace for over 100 losses in what's been a chaotic season in Anaheim.
Rookie Elmer Rodríguez (0-2, 4.70 ERA) starts for the Yankees against Walbert Ureña (8-9, 2.94 ERA, 112 strikeouts), who's quietly had a strong year for a last-place Angels club.
Best Home Run Prop Pick Today – Ben Rice (Editor's Pick)
We're buying Ben Rice's 1+ home run prop, priced at 18¢ on the board.
Rice has developed into a real power threat in the middle of New York's lineup this season.
He's facing a rookie starter in Rodríguez who's making just his fifth career MLB appearance and carries a 4.70 ERA.
Angel Stadium has played as a fair park for home runs all year, and this Yankees lineup has plenty of thump top to bottom.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at an average price of 18¢ works out to roughly 556 shares, with a listed payout of $529.50.
- If Rice homers: the position pays out at $529.50, a profit of $429.50 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Roughly a 5.3x payout multiple against an inexperienced starter makes this one of the more appealing longshot prices on the slate.
Moneyline
New York is favored at 55¢ (55%) on the road, with Los Angeles at 46¢ (46%) after gaining 5 points today.
Even with the Angels well out of contention, Mike Trout and this lineup have kept games competitive more often than the win-loss record suggests.
Spread
New York to win by over 1.5 runs sits at 42% Yes, up 2 points on the day as confidence builds in a comfortable Yankees win.
Total
The over 7.5 runs is priced at 56% Yes, though it's swung a massive 40 points today as the market digests both bullpens.
Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Ben Rice and Mike Trout lead the board as the most likely home run hitters in this matchup.
- Ben Rice (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 83%): Rice is our Editor's Pick above and tops this board against a shaky rookie starter.
- Mike Trout (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Trout remains a threat every time he steps in the box, even in a lost Angels season.
- Trent Grisham (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 87%): Grisham has provided steady pop from the outfield for New York all year.
- Luis Garcia Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 89%): Garcia continues to be one of the lone bright spots in a difficult Angels season.
- Zach Neto (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): Neto rounds out a top five that leans slightly toward the home dugout tonight.
Strikeout Props
Elmer Rodríguez's 5+ strikeouts prop is priced at 47% Yes, while Walbert Ureña's 6+ strikeouts contract for the Angels also sits at 47% Yes.
Ureña has racked up 112 strikeouts already this season, making him one of the more underrated strikeout arms on a rebuilding roster.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks: Best MLB Picks Today
Philadelphia (77-60) sits second in the NL East and holds a wild card spot, while Arizona (73-65) opens a three-game set at home at Chase Field.
Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phillies against Brandon Pfaadt (7-1, 3.51 ERA), who's been one of the more reliable arms in Arizona's rotation this year.
Best Strikeout Prop Pick Today – Aaron Nola (Editor's Pick)
We're buying Aaron Nola's 5+ strikeouts prop, priced right at 50¢ on the board.
Nola's overall season line still isn't pretty, sitting at 5-10 with a 5.03 ERA across 27 starts.
But he's been a completely different pitcher lately, posting a 2.51 ERA over his last five starts.
Nola has racked up 66 strikeouts over his last 10 outings, and he's averaging 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings for the season.
His most recent start against Seattle saw him go six innings and allow just two earned runs, another sign the recent form is real.
Arizona's lineup doesn't strike out much as a team, but Nola's current strikeout stuff gives this number a real floor regardless of opponent tendencies.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at an average price of 50¢ works out to roughly 200 shares, with a listed payout of $194.18.
- If Nola strikes out 5 or more: the position pays out at $194.18, a profit of $94.18 on the $100 stake.
- If he strikes out 4 or fewer: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Close to a coin-flip payout, but Nola's recent strikeout surge gives this trade more analytical backing than the raw season ERA alone would suggest.
Moneyline
Philadelphia is favored at 54¢ (54%), up 4 points on the day, with Arizona sitting at 47¢ (47%) as the road favorite's edge softens slightly.
Both clubs are jockeying for playoff positioning down the stretch, which should make for a competitive series opener.
Spread
Philadelphia to win by over 1.5 runs sits at 40% Yes, up 10 points on the day as confidence grows in a potential Phillies cover.
Total
The over 8.5 runs is priced at 48% Yes, down a sharp 40 points today as the board reacts to two strong starting pitchers.
Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper top the board as the most likely home run hitters in this one.
- Kyle Schwarber (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Schwarber has been Philadelphia's premier power bat all season and leads this board comfortably.
- Bryce Harper (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): Harper remains one of the most dangerous middle-of-the-order threats in the league.
- Corbin Carroll (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 88%): Carroll gives Arizona a legitimate top-of-the-order power threat tonight.
- Lars Nootbaar (1+ HR: Yes 12%, No 89%): Nootbaar gained 2 points today, a modest but notable bump for the Diamondbacks outfielder.
- Max Kepler (1+ HR: Yes 11%, No 90%): Kepler rounds out a top five that leans heavily toward the Phillies' lineup tonight.
Strikeout Props
Brandon Pfaadt's 4+ strikeouts prop is priced at 54% Yes, while Aaron Nola's 5+ strikeouts contract, our Editor's Pick above, sits at 50% Yes.
Pfaadt has settled into a groove for Arizona this year, and his 4+ number lines up comfortably with his season averages.
Polymarket has plenty of additional games on the board beyond these five, so it's worth checking the full slate before you're done trading tonight.
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Monday's MLB Slate: Final Thoughts
This is a night where the sharpest edges come from pitching matchups rather than pure records, with Milwaukee and Chicago's ace-on-ace duel standing out as the best MLB picks today for total-runs traders specifically.
The longshot home run props, like Dillon Dingler and Ben Rice, offer real value against shaky opposing starters if you're comfortable with lower hit rates for bigger payouts.
And Aaron Nola's strikeout prop is a good reminder that a rough season line doesn't always reflect current form, since his last five starts look nothing like his season ERA.
Whatever angle you're trading, these five games make up a solid slice of tonight's MLB predictions today across the exchange.
MLB Predictions Today FAQs
What is the Polymarket promo code today?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who sign up.
Who is favored on Monday's MLB slate?
Atlanta, Minnesota, Milwaukee, New York and Philadelphia are all priced as moneyline favorites in their respective games tonight.
What's the best home run prop on the board today?
Matt Olson, Rafael Devers and Pete Crow-Armstrong carry the highest implied probabilities of any home run contract across the five games covered here.
How do Polymarket contracts work?
Each contract represents a Yes or No outcome, priced in cents between 0 and 100, where the price roughly reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome happening.
Shares that resolve correctly pay out $1 each, while shares on the losing side pay out nothing.
What is the Editor's Pick for the Phillies vs Diamondbacks game?
The Editor's Pick is Aaron Nola's 5+ strikeouts prop, built around his recent form rather than his season-long numbers.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
New users can enter ACTION during signup to unlock the $50 trading bonus before placing their first trade.
When do these MLB markets resolve?
Each market resolves once its underlying game reaches a final, official result according to MLB's box score.
Are there more MLB games available on Polymarket tonight?
Yes, Polymarket lists additional games beyond the five covered in this piece, so it's worth browsing the full board for more MLB predictions today.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
