The Houston Astros (65-66) open a three-game set against the New York Yankees (74-56) Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium, with Will Warren taking the ball for New York against Houston's Ethan Pecko.
Among the best MLB predictions today, this Yankees vs Astros prediction leans on Polymarket's full event-contract board for the game, from the moneyline down to first-five-innings pricing, alongside the current Polymarket invite code: ACTION.
Yankees vs Astros Prediction: Polymarket Money Line Contracts
Polymarket's moneyline contracts pay out $1 if the named team wins outright, so each side's price reflects the market's current read on that team's win probability. With $16.5K in volume already traded, this is comfortably the most active market on the board for Tuesday's opener.
Houston Astros (43¢, 43% implied probability)
Houston sits as the road underdog, and the pricing lines up with a lineup that has cooled off lately. Over their last 10 games the Astros are batting just .218 as a team despite a .380 slugging mark built on 27 extra-base hits, a split that suggests power without much consistency. Isaac Paredes has carried a chunk of the offense in that stretch, hitting .314 with two homers and nine RBI, while Yordan Alvarez has been steady with nine hits and a .290/.450/.484 line over the same window.
New York Yankees (58¢, 58% implied probability)
New York is the home favorite, priced a full 15 cents above Houston. The Yankees have hit 10 home runs over their past 10 games, and Will Warren gets the ball after allowing just two earned runs in four innings his last time out against Baltimore. Warren carries an 8-6 record and a 4.43 ERA into the start, his 25th of the season, and the Yankees pitching staff overall has posted a 2.02 ERA over the last 10 games, a big reason the moneyline leans their way.
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Astros vs Yankees Spread and Total Predictions
Beyond the moneyline, Polymarket has run-line and total contracts priced for Tuesday's game, both trading at healthier volume than most of the prop board.
Houston Astros +1.5 (61¢, 61% implied probability)
Houston covering the 1.5-run spread is priced well above its outright moneyline number, which is standard for an underdog getting a run-and-a-half cushion. At $71 in volume, this line has drawn more action than most of the secondary markets on the board.
New York Yankees -1.5 (40¢, 40% implied probability)
The Yankees winning by two or more runs is priced under 50 cents even as the outright favorite, reflecting how tight recent games in this series have been rather than a signal that New York's win probability is in doubt.
Over 8.5 Runs (53¢, 53% implied probability)
The over carries a slight edge on a total that sits right at the league-average run environment. With Houston's offense slugging .380 over its last 10 games despite a low batting average, extra-base hits rather than a parade of singles could be what pushes this total past 8.5.
Under 8.5 Runs (48¢, 48% implied probability)
The under stays live given the Yankees' 2.02 staff ERA over the past 10 games and Warren's clean four-inning outing last time out, both of which point to a game closer to the total's midpoint than to a blowout on either side.
More Astros-Yankees Prop Markets: First Inning Run and Extra Innings
Two additional yes/no contracts round out the main game-lines board. Both are lightly traded relative to the moneyline, but they give traders a way to take a position on specific stretches of the game rather than the final result.
- Will there be a run in the first inning? (Yes 53¢, No 48¢): This contract is essentially a coin flip, with the yes side holding a slight edge. It's currently showing $0 in volume, so treat the pricing as a starting quote rather than a heavily traded consensus.
- Extra Innings (Yes 11¢, No 92¢): The market strongly favors this game wrapping up in nine innings, pricing extra frames as a longshot at just 11¢ on $11 in volume traded so far.
1st 5 Innings Betting: Astros vs Yankees Winner, Spread and Total
Polymarket also runs a full first-five-innings board for this matchup, letting traders take a position on the game before the bullpens get involved. All three first-five contracts are showing $0 in volume so far, so treat these as opening prices rather than a market that's already found its level.
- Houston Astros to Lead After 5 (39¢, 39% implied probability)
- Draw After 5 Innings (17¢, 17% implied probability)
- New York Yankees to Lead After 5 (49¢, 49% implied probability)
The Yankees hold a modest edge to lead through five, roughly in line with their full-game moneyline advantage, while the draw contract prices in the real chance of a tied score, given how often the first five innings end in a stalemate.
- Houston Astros +1.5 (1st 5 Innings) (67¢, 67% implied probability)
- New York Yankees -1.5 (1st 5 Innings) (36¢, 36% implied probability)
The first-five spread is priced more generously toward Houston than the full-game version, since a run-and-a-half cushion covers more relative ground across five innings than it does across nine.
- Over 4.5 (1st 5 Innings) (53¢, 53% implied probability)
- Under 4.5 (1st 5 Innings) (48¢, 48% implied probability)
The first-five total sits almost exactly at a coin flip, mirroring the full-game total's shape, which suggests the market expects scoring to be spread fairly evenly across the game rather than front-loaded or back-loaded.
Best MLB Predictions Today: Astros vs Yankees Price Analysis
Among the best MLB predictions today, the overall shape of this Yankees vs. Astros prediction points to a moderate Yankees favorite, with a run environment landing right around the total. New York's 15-cent edge on the moneyline is backed by a pitching staff that's held opponents to a 2.02 ERA over its last 10 games, while Houston's underdog price reflects a lineup that's been streaky, hitting for power in bursts but batting under .220 as a team over the same stretch.
The spread and total markets both show a tighter gap than the moneyline, which is typical when a favorite's edge is more about a stronger pitching staff than a clear talent gap on offense. The first-five-innings board tells a similar story to the full-game lines, just compressed, with Houston getting relatively more value on its spread across five innings than nine. Traders looking for background on how these contracts are priced and resolved can find more detail in Action Network's prediction markets hub.
Volume so far is concentrated almost entirely in the full-game moneyline, with the run-line, total, and first-five markets all trading lightly. Keep that in mind before treating any secondary prices as a settled consensus; they're more likely to move once the lineups are official and first pitch approaches.
Use Polymarket Invite Code 'ACTION' to Trade Yankees vs Astros
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use invite code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Polymarket Promo Codes vs Invite Codes vs Referral Codes vs Bonus Codes: What's the Difference?
New traders often run into four different labels for the exact same thing. A Polymarket promo code, a Polymarket invite code, a Polymarket referral code, and a Polymarket bonus code all refer to the identical signup code, ACTION, and all unlock the same trading bonus when entered at signup. There's no functional difference between them and no reason to search for one over another expecting a better deal.
The wording varies based on how different sites, affiliates, and search terms describe the same offer. Some outlets call it an "invite code" because it frames signup as joining an exchange; others use "referral code" to emphasize that it's a link between a new trader and the platform; and "bonus code" or "promo code" both lean on the incentive itself. Whichever term shows up, entering ACTION at signup triggers the bonus, not the label used to describe it.
For this piece, and anywhere else you see it phrased as a Polymarket invite code, know it points to the same ACTION code referenced throughout the moneyline, spread, and how-to-trade sections above.
Astros vs Yankees: Final Thoughts
Polymarket's board has the Yankees as modest favorites across the full game and the first five innings alike, with the moneyline, run-line, and total all reflecting a Yankees pitching edge rather than a lopsided talent gap. Out of today's best MLB predictions, that's the shape of this Yankees vs Astros prediction heading into Tuesday's 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Yankee Stadium. Traders can browse the full range of available markets and platforms through Action Network's prediction market apps guide before placing a position.
Yankees vs Astros Prediction: Polymarket Invite Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket invite code?
The current Polymarket invite code is ACTION, which unlocks a trading bonus when entered during signup. You can find the full offer details on Action Network's promo codes page.
Who is favored in the Astros vs Yankees game?
The New York Yankees are favored, trading at 58¢ (58% implied probability) on the Polymarket moneyline, with the Houston Astros priced at 43¢ (43% implied probability) as the road underdog.
What's the total for Tuesday's Astros-Yankees game?
Polymarket's total is set at 8.5 runs, with the over trading at 53¢ and the under at 48¢, both implying close to a coin-flip outcome.
Is there a notable prop market on the board?
The extra innings contract stands out, pricing a game that goes past nine innings as a longshot at just 11¢ against 92¢ for the game ending in regulation.
How do Polymarket's event contracts work?
Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome it describes occurs and $0 if it doesn't, so a contract's price in cents doubles as the market's implied probability for that outcome. Prices move continuously as new information and trades come in.
How do I use the Polymarket invite code?
Enter ACTION during the Polymarket signup process to unlock the trading bonus tied to the invite code. The same code works whether it's called a promo code, invite code, referral code, or bonus code.
Are a Polymarket promo code and a Polymarket invite code the same thing?
Yes. Promo code, invite code, referral code, and bonus code are all different names for the same ACTION signup code on Polymarket, and each delivers the identical bonus.
When does the Astros vs Yankees market resolve?
The moneyline, spread, and total contracts resolve based on the final score of Tuesday's game, while the first-five-innings contracts resolve based on the score after five completed innings.
