Three marquee matchups anchor tonight's slate. The Brewers vs Cubs series at Wrigley Field, Orioles vs Red Sox in Baltimore, and Dodgers vs Cardinals out west all carry real playoff stakes tonight.
Home run props are the centerpiece of the board across all three games, and it's a good night to check out some of the best prediction markets available on Polymarket.
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Brewers vs Cubs: Home Run Props and Odds
The Brewers arrive at Wrigley Field at 87-53, still the best record in baseball, while the Cubs (78-62) are clinging to a Wild Card spot and just came off a historic power display against this same Milwaukee pitching staff.
Logan Henderson gets the ball for Milwaukee against Kevin Gausman, and after Chicago's 62-homer August, the Brewers vs Cubs series has turned into one of the better home run environments in baseball right now.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Alex Bregman (Editor's Pick)
We're taking Alex Bregman to go deep again tonight.
Bregman signed a five-year free agent deal with the Cubs over the winter and spent the first half of the season searching for his swing, carrying a .695 OPS into the All-Star break.
Since July 27, he's a different hitter entirely: .328/.388/.701 with 13 home runs in 33 games, second in all of MLB in homers over that stretch.
He already has two three-homer games in the last three weeks, including a three-homer night against this exact Brewers pitching staff on Monday that pushed his season total to 23 and helped Chicago set a franchise record with nine home runs in one game.
The board has him at 14% (14¢) to go deep again tonight, and given how hot his bat has been against this specific opponent, that price looks soft.
Our ticket buys Yes at 14% for a $100 stake.
The average fill lands closer to 14.7¢ once the order works through what is a thin home run prop book, turning that $100 into roughly 679.21 shares.
Each share is worth $1 if it resolves in our favor, which is where the $679.21 "to win" figure on the ticket comes from.
- If Bregman hits a home run: the shares pay out $1 each, a profit of $579.21 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's roughly a 6.8x payout multiple on a single-game power bet, a real swing given how streaky home run props can be even for a hitter this hot.
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Brewers (54%, Yes 54¢)
Milwaukee is priced as the moderate favorite on the road at 1.85x, and with baseball's best record, that number reflects a team that keeps finding ways to win close games.
Cubs (46%, Yes 46¢)
Chicago's 46% price is buoyed by an offense that just set a franchise record with nine home runs in one game against this same Milwaukee pitching staff, even as the Cubs remain the underdog by record.
Spread and Total
Milwaukee is priced at 41% to win by more than 1.5 runs, a shorter number than the moneyline gap alone would suggest.
The total sits at 49% for the over on 8.5 runs, which tracks with a Cubs lineup that has been running up scores all week and a Brewers offense that isn't shy either.
Home Run Props
Here's how the Brewers vs Cubs home run board shapes up tonight, ranked from most to least likely to go deep.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (1+ HR: 24%): The Cubs center fielder has been part of the best power month in franchise history and tops this board for a reason.
- Jackson Chourio (1+ HR: 19%): Milwaukee's young outfielder gives the Brewers their best individual home run price in the lineup tonight.
- Ian Happ (1+ HR: 18%): Happ's left-handed pop plays well in this ballpark and against this specific Milwaukee staff.
- Michael Busch (1+ HR: 17%): Busch has been a steady middle-of-the-order threat for Chicago all season.
- Seiya Suzuki (1+ HR: 17%): Suzuki went back-to-back with Bregman during Monday's blowout and remains a real threat every time he's at the plate.
- Jake Bauers (1+ HR: 17%): Bauers has carved out a role in Milwaukee's lineup and carries real pop for a complementary bat.
- William Contreras (1+ HR: 16%): Milwaukee's All-Star catcher remains one of the more dangerous power bats in this lineup even after a slightly cooler week.
- Alex Bregman (1+ HR: 14%): Covered above in the Editor's Pick, Bregman's price here matches the board number our ticket was built around.
- Michael Conforto (1+ HR: 14%): Conforto has quietly been a factor in the Cubs' recent power surge and sits right alongside Bregman on this board.
- Garrett Mitchell (1+ HR: 13%): Mitchell rounds out the top ten, giving Milwaukee's lineup a full complement of power threats.
Orioles vs Red Sox: Home Run Props and Odds
Boston (75-65) sits second in the AL Wild Card race, 4.5 games clear of Cleveland, while Baltimore (69-71) reached .500 for the first time since April just this week and is fighting for that same group of spots.
This four-game series is effectively a Wild Card skirmish in the Orioles vs Red Sox matchup, and it's made even more pointed by Adley Rutschman catching against his former team for the first time since Boston acquired him at the trade deadline.
Best Moneyline Pick Today – Red Sox (Editor's Pick)
We're backing the Red Sox on the moneyline tonight.
Boston's rotation has stumbled lately, allowing 22 runs over 18 and two-thirds innings across its last four games, after an eight-game run of a 2.43 ERA before that.
Jake Bennett gets the ball off his best start of the stretch, six shutout innings against the Yankees last time out, and he'll need something close to that again in Baltimore.
The Orioles counter with Brandon Young, who's been steady all year, and lean on a lineup fueled by trade-deadline addition Pete Alonso, currently Baltimore's power leader.
Even with Boston's rotation wobble, the board still makes the Red Sox clear favorites at 54% (54¢), and the roster gap between these two clubs still shows up in the price.
Our ticket buys Boston at 54% for a $100 stake.
The average fill comes in a touch above the quoted price, closer to 55¢ once the order works through the book, which turns that $100 into roughly 181.85 shares.
Each share pays out $1 if the Red Sox win, which is where the $181.85 "to win" figure comes from.
- If the Red Sox win: the shares pay out $1 each, a profit of $81.85 on the $100 stake.
- If the Orioles win instead: the full $100 stake is lost.
That's a modest 1.82x payout, a lower-variance play than the home run props elsewhere on this slate, reflecting Boston's status as the clear favorite.
Red Sox (54%, Yes 54¢)
Boston is priced as the moderate favorite on the road at 1.87x, a number that leans on the roster gap between these two clubs more than recent form.
Orioles (47%, Yes 47¢)
Baltimore's 47% price reflects a lineup built around real power, even if the pitching staff and overall record still trail Boston's.
Spread and Total
Boston is priced at 42% to win by more than 1.5 runs, giving up a chunk of its moneyline edge once the margin is factored in.
The total sits at 50% for the over on 8.5 runs, a near coin flip that fits a game between a finesse-leaning Red Sox staff and a Baltimore lineup built around the long ball.
Home Run Props
Here's the home run board for Orioles vs Red Sox tonight, ranked from most to least likely.
- Pete Alonso (1+ HR: 24%): Baltimore's trade-deadline slugger tops this board and remains the O's clearest single source of power.
- Wilyer Abreu (1+ HR: 21%): Abreu's power has been a steady presence in Boston's lineup all season.
- Coby Mayo (1+ HR: 21%): Mayo gives Baltimore a second real power threat right behind Alonso.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1+ HR: 17%): Encarnacion-Strand has settled into a middle-of-the-order power role since arriving in this lineup.
- Luis Robert Jr. (1+ HR: 17%): Robert's raw power still shows up on nights like this, even in a down offensive season overall.
- Roman Anthony (1+ HR: 16%): Boston's top prospect continues to flash real power at the big league level.
- Mickey Gasper (1+ HR: 15%): Gasper has carved out a surprising power role for Baltimore in a part-time role.
- Adley Rutschman (1+ HR: 15%): Rutschman's return to Camden Yards adds a real storyline on top of his usual power threat from behind the plate.
- Jarren Duran (1+ HR: 14%): Duran remains one of Boston's more dangerous everyday bats.
- Gunnar Henderson (1+ HR: 11%): Henderson's price is lower than his talent level might suggest, but he's still very much in play here.
Dodgers vs Cardinals: Home Run Props and Odds
Los Angeles (82-56) has a firm grip on the NL West and is going for a series sweep, while St. Louis (69-70) enters having just hung 13 runs and five home runs on this same Dodgers pitching staff on Tuesday.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the mound for the Dodgers against Quinn Mathews, and after that Tuesday shootout, the Dodgers vs Cardinals finale looks like another game that could turn on the long ball.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Shohei Ohtani (Editor's Pick)
We're taking Shohei Ohtani to go deep again tonight.
Ohtani leads the Dodgers with 30 home runs this season and remains the offense's clearest source of power on a nightly basis.
The Cardinals just hit five home runs off this pitching staff on Tuesday, including a pair from Thomas Saggese and one from Home Run Derby champion Jordan Walker, so the door is clearly open for more long balls in this series.
The board has Ohtani at 22% (22¢) to go deep tonight, the highest price on this game's home run board.
Our ticket buys Yes at 22% for a $100 stake.
The average fill lands a touch above the quoted price, closer to 23¢ once the order works through the book, turning that $100 into roughly 434.22 shares.
Each share is worth $1 if it resolves in our favor, which is where the $434.22 "to win" figure comes from.
- If Ohtani hits a home run: the shares pay out $1 each, a profit of $334.22 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.
That's roughly a 4.3x payout multiple, a reasonable middle-ground risk given Ohtani sits atop this specific home run board.
Dodgers (74%, Yes 74¢)
Los Angeles is priced as a heavy home favorite at 1.36x, reflecting both the NL West lead and a lineup that has an answer for most Cardinals rallies.
Cardinals (26%, Yes 26¢)
St. Louis sits at the other end of that number as the road underdog, though Tuesday's five-homer outburst is a reminder this club can still swing the bat.
Spread and Total
Los Angeles is priced at 57% to win by more than 1.5 runs, a real gap given how lopsided the moneyline number already is.
The total sits at 52% for the over on 7.5 runs, a fair number for two lineups that combined for 21 runs and seven home runs just two nights ago.
Home Run Props
Here's the home run board for Dodgers vs Cardinals tonight, ranked from most to least likely.
- Shohei Ohtani (1+ HR: 22%): Covered above in the Editor's Pick, Ohtani tops this board by a comfortable margin.
- Teoscar Hernández (1+ HR: 16%): Hernández gives the Dodgers a second legitimate power threat in the middle of the order.
- Jordan Walker (1+ HR: 15%): Walker's Home Run Derby pedigree and Tuesday's homer make him a real factor again tonight.
- Mookie Betts (1+ HR: 15%): Betts remains an everyday power threat even in a lineup built around Ohtani.
- Joshua Báez (1+ HR: 14%): Báez has become a steady part of the Cardinals' recent power surge.
- Tommy Edman (1+ HR: 14%): Edman adds a speed-power combination that keeps him on this list most nights.
- Freddie Freeman (1+ HR: 13%): Freeman's consistency keeps him firmly inside this game's top home run prices.
- Alec Burleson (1+ HR: 11%): Burleson leads the Cardinals in RBI this season and remains a real threat on any given pitch.
- Iván Herrera (1+ HR: 11%): Herrera rounds out a St. Louis lineup that has quietly found more power lately.
- Thomas Saggese (1+ HR: 10%): Saggese hit two home runs in Tuesday's blowout and gets a price bump as a result.
Tonight's board covers plenty of other games too, so check the platform's full Sports tab for additional matchups and prop markets beyond these three.
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Best Prediction Markets: Final Thoughts
Three very different flavors of contention are on display tonight: Milwaukee protecting the best record in baseball, Boston and Baltimore scrapping directly for a Wild Card seed, and Los Angeles trying to close out a series after St. Louis' power outburst two nights ago.
Home run props remain some of the best prediction markets on the board because they isolate a single swing rather than a full nine innings, and tonight's three games each have a board built around exactly that kind of variance.
For more matchups beyond tonight's slate, the broader prediction markets hub is worth bookmarking, and the list of platforms and current promo codes are good starting points if Polymarket isn't the only exchange in your rotation.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who sign up and fund an account.
Who's favored in the Brewers vs Cubs game tonight?
Milwaukee is priced at 54% on the moneyline in the Brewers vs Cubs matchup, though the Cubs' recent power surge has kept this number closer than the two teams' records alone would suggest.
Who's favored in the Orioles vs Red Sox game tonight?
Boston is priced at 54% on the moneyline in the Orioles vs Red Sox matchup, even with the Red Sox rotation having wobbled over its last four outings.
Who's favored in the Dodgers vs Cardinals game tonight?
Los Angeles is a heavy 74% favorite at home in the Dodgers vs Cardinals matchup, though the Cardinals' five-home-run outburst two nights ago is a reminder this Dodgers pitching staff has been vulnerable to the long ball lately.
What is the Editor's Pick tonight?
Three separate Editor's Picks are covered above: Alex Bregman's home run prop in the Brewers vs Cubs game, the Red Sox moneyline in the Orioles vs Red Sox game, and Shohei Ohtani's home run prop in the Dodgers vs Cardinals game.
How do Polymarket home run prop contracts work?
Each contract resolves based on whether the named player hits at least one home run in the game; a Yes share pays out $1 if the player connects, and $0 if they don't.
Are these among the best prediction markets available tonight?
Yes. Home run props on a three-game slate like this one, spanning a division leader, a Wild Card scrap, and a rematch after a five-homer outburst, are some of the best prediction markets on the board for bettors looking for isolated, single-swing variance.
Are there more games to trade beyond these three?
Yes, Polymarket's Sports tab covers the full MLB slate each night, along with other sports, well beyond the three games featured here.
