The Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is perfect to use on tonight's college hoops slate, and these college basketball predictions today round up our best college basketball picks today from the live Polymarket board.
- Most of these teams are playing their first or second game of the season, so every number on the board rests on a very small sample.
- Every pick below is built on a real Polymarket trade ticket.
Here is our full picks table for tonight's NCAAB predictions, pulled from the best prediction markets board, before we break down every game.
| 🏀 Game (Start) | 🏷️ NCAAB Pick: Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDU vs BUT (7:00 PM ET) | BUT -27.5: Yes | 49¢ | $197.10 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| CSUN vs WICH (7:30 PM ET) | WICH -14.5: Yes | 54¢ | $179.44 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| NKU vs SDAK (8:00 PM ET) | SDAK ML: Yes | 43¢ | $223.69 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| RAD vs CAL (9:00 PM ET) | Under 157.5 (Over NO): No | 52.8¢ | $183.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| QUC vs LMU (10:00 PM ET) | LMU -8.5: Yes | 49¢ | $197.10 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
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College Basketball Predictions Today: Our Top Polymarket Picks for the November 4 Slate
Every pick below is a real trade we'd make on Polymarket, part of our best college basketball picks today. You can also compare platforms in our guide to the best prediction market apps and follow the full NCAAB board all season.
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Each game in these college basketball predictions today starts with its moneyline, spread and total, followed by our pick for that matchup.
Fairleigh Dickinson vs Butler Prediction
Butler opened the Ronald Nored era with a 96-60 win over Lafayette on Monday, and the Bulldogs now get a quick turnaround at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
Fairleigh Dickinson is 0-1 after a 120-45 loss at No. 3 Illinois in which the Knights shot 28% from the field. David Jevtic, last year's Northeast Conference Rookie of the Year, led them with 13 points and six rebounds.
Best Spread Pick Today: Butler -27.5
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUT -27.5 | Yes | 49¢ | $197.10 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Butler won its opener by 36 points, which is well clear of the 27.5 needed here. Fairleigh Dickinson just shot 28% in a 75-point loss at Illinois.
The caution is sample size. Butler's win came over Lafayette, a Patriot League team, and both teams have played exactly one game.
At 49 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 204 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Butler wins by 28 or more: Return of $197.10.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That's roughly 2x return on a number Butler cleared by more than eight points in its opener.
Fairleigh Dickinson vs Butler Moneyline
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDU ML | Yes | 3% | $3,333.33 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| BUT ML | Yes | 98% | $102.04 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Butler is priced at 98% to win outright and Fairleigh Dickinson at 3%, so the market treats the Knights' moneyline as a long shot after that 120-45 loss.
At 98 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 102 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Butler wins: Return of roughly $102.04.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is barely above a 1x return, so this price is about certainty rather than payout, and it is why we skip it.
Fairleigh Dickinson vs Butler Spread
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUT -27.5 | Yes | 49% | $197.10 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| FDU +27.5 (BUT -27.5 NO) | No | 52% | $192.31 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's spread is Butler -27.5, the same number posted in the odds column of ESPN's schedule. The board prices Butler -27.5 at 49% Yes and 52% No, close to a coin flip.
This is the line we're backing for this game, and the full breakdown is in our pick below.
Fairleigh Dickinson vs Butler Total
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 155.5 | Yes | 53% | $188.68 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| Under 155.5 (Over NO) | No | 50% | $200.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's total is 155.5, a point below the 156.5 shown on ESPN's schedule, and the board leans slightly toward the Over at 53% Yes against 50% on the Under.
Butler's opener finished with exactly 156 combined points, and Fairleigh Dickinson's loss at Illinois went for 165.
At 53 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 189 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If the game reaches 156 or more total points: Return of roughly $188.68.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is an estimated return of roughly 1.9x on a number Butler's own opener cleared by half a point.
Cal State Northridge vs Wichita State Prediction
Wichita State opens its season at Charles Koch Arena, and the American Conference's coaches picked the Shockers to win the league. Kenyon Giles is reportedly back for a fifth season after a court ruling, though that eligibility is reportedly being challenged by the NCAA.
Cal State Northridge also opens here, then visits Kansas State two days later. The Matadors reportedly brought in nine newcomers, and the school has not confirmed the status of last season's Big West Player of the Year, Josiah Davis.
Best Spread Pick Today: Wichita State -14.5
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| WICH -14.5 | Yes | 54¢ | $179.44 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Wichita State enters as the American Conference's preseason pick, with Giles reportedly back in the fold. Northridge is reportedly leaning on a roster with nine newcomers.
The risk is that this is a season opener for both teams, so there is no game film from this year. Giles's eligibility and Davis's status are both worth rechecking before tip.
At 54 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 185 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Wichita State wins by 15 or more: Return of $179.44.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
The return here is roughly 1.8x, the lowest multiple of our five picks, in line with the market's lean toward the Shockers.
Cal State Northridge vs Wichita State Moneyline
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSUN ML | Yes | 8% | $1,250.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| WICH ML | Yes | 93% | $107.53 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Wichita State is priced at 93% to win outright and Cal State Northridge at 8%.
At 8%, a Northridge moneyline buy would return roughly $1,250.00, showing how far the market is from the Matadors.
At 93 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 108 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Wichita State wins: Return of roughly $107.53.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is barely above a 1x return, so the moneyline is about safety here, not value.
Cal State Northridge vs Wichita State Spread
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| WICH -14.5 | Yes | 54% | $179.44 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| CSUN +14.5 (WICH -14.5 NO) | No | 48% | $208.33 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's spread is Wichita State -14.5, a point shorter than the -15.5 in ESPN's odds column. The board prices it at 54% Yes and 48% No.
This is the line we're backing, and the full breakdown is in our pick below.
Cal State Northridge vs Wichita State Total
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 161.5 | Yes | 50% | $200.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| Under 161.5 (Over NO) | No | 53% | $188.68 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's total is 161.5, a point above the 160.5 shown on ESPN's schedule. The Under, written as Over NO, is priced a little higher at 53% against 50% Yes on the Over.
With neither team having played yet, the number is a pure projection. A TheSpread preview describes Northridge as one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, which pushes against the Under.
At 50 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 200 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If the game reaches 162 or more total points: Return of roughly $200.00.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is an estimated 2x return at a true coin-flip price.
Northern Kentucky vs South Dakota Prediction
Northern Kentucky is 1-0 after an 84-76 win over UTEP in Sioux Falls on Monday, where Foster scored 24 points.
South Dakota is also 1-0 after a 95-57 win over Mount Marty, led by 17 points from Jahni Summers. Wednesday is the second of four straight home games to open the season in Vermillion.
Best Moneyline Pick Today: South Dakota
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDAK ML | Yes | 43¢ | $223.69 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
South Dakota is at home, where the Coyotes went 12-5 last season, and the board has the spread at just 2.5 points. A 43% price on the home side of a game that small is the kind of number we like to take.
The Coyotes' opener came against Mount Marty, so the 95-57 score says less about them than Northern Kentucky's win over UTEP says about the Norse, and the market currently sides with the Norse.
At 43 cents, a $100 buy gets you roughly 233 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If South Dakota wins outright: Return of $223.69.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is a return of roughly 2.2x, the largest multiple on tonight's pick slate.
Northern Kentucky vs South Dakota Moneyline
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKU ML | Yes | 59% | $169.49 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| SDAK ML | Yes | 43% | $223.69 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Northern Kentucky is priced at 59% and South Dakota at 43%, which is close enough to a pick'em that the board sees little separation between the two sides.
We're backing South Dakota's moneyline in this game, and the full breakdown is in our pick below.
Northern Kentucky vs South Dakota Spread
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKU -2.5 | Yes | 51% | $196.08 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| SDAK +2.5 (NKU -2.5 NO) | No | 52% | $192.31 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's spread is Northern Kentucky -2.5, matching the number in ESPN's odds column. The board prices the Norse at 51% Yes to cover and the Coyotes at 52% to stay within the number.
The Norse are favored on the road after beating UTEP by eight on a neutral floor.
At 51 cents, a $100 buy gets you roughly 196 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Northern Kentucky wins by three or more: Return of roughly $196.08.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is an estimated return of roughly 2x, nearly identical to the price on the other side of the spread.
Northern Kentucky vs South Dakota Total
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 162.5 | Yes | 52% | $192.31 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| Under 162.5 (Over NO) | No | 53% | $188.68 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's total is 162.5, the same number as ESPN's schedule. The Over sits at 52% Yes and the Under at 53%.
Northern Kentucky's opener went for 160 combined points, while South Dakota's blowout of Mount Marty finished at 152.
At 52 cents, a $100 buy gets you roughly 192 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If the game reaches 163 or more total points: Return of roughly $192.31.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is an estimated return of roughly 1.9x on a number both teams' openers finished under.
Radford vs California Prediction
Cal is 1-0 after a 115-86 win over Adams State in which Michael Cooper scored 24 points. The Golden Bears went 22-12 last season and 17-5 at home.
Radford is 0-1 after a 76-62 loss at San Francisco on Monday, in which the Highlanders turned the ball over 19 times against 14 assists. They were picked to finish sixth in the nine-team Big South preseason poll.
Best Total Pick Today: Under 157.5
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 157.5 (Over NO) | No | 52.8¢ | $183.38 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
The case for the Under starts with Radford's opener, which finished with 138 combined points and only 62 of them from the Highlanders, who took just 50 shots in the loss.
The risk is Cal's offense. The Golden Bears and Adams State combined for 201 points in that opener, so this is the pick on the board most exposed to a single hot shooting night.
At an average price of 52.8 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 189 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves No. Polymarket's board shows 52% on the No side, but the ticket fills at an average price of 52.8 cents, so we use the higher figure in the table.
- If the game finishes with 157 or fewer total points: Return of $183.38.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
The return here is roughly 1.8x, so size it accordingly.
Radford vs California Moneyline
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAD ML | Yes | 8% | $1,250.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| CAL ML | Yes | 94% | $106.38 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
California is priced at 94% to win outright and Radford at 8%.
At 8%, a Radford moneyline buy would estimate a return of roughly $1,250.00.
At 94 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 106 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Cal wins: Return of roughly $106.38.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is only a little more than 1x, so the moneyline offers safety rather than payout.
Radford vs California Spread
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL -16.5 | Yes | 51% | $196.08 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| RAD +16.5 (CAL -16.5 NO) | No | 52% | $192.31 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's spread is California -16.5, matching ESPN's odds column. The board prices Cal at 51% Yes to cover and Radford at 52% to stay within the number.
Cal's opener was a 29-point win, well past this number, though Radford's loss at San Francisco was a 14-point game.
At 51 cents, a $100 buy gets you roughly 196 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Cal wins by 17 or more: Return of roughly $196.08.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is an estimated return of roughly 2x on a number the market prices as a coin flip.
Radford vs California Total
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 157.5 | Yes | 50% | $200.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| Under 157.5 (Over NO) | No | 52.8% | $183.38 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's total is 157.5, matching ESPN's schedule, and the board prices the Over at 50% Yes. The Under, written as Over NO, shows 52% on the board.
This is the line we're backing for this game, and the full breakdown is in our pick below.
Queens vs Loyola Marymount Prediction
Loyola Marymount opens its season at Gersten Pavilion, coming off a 15-17 campaign and 10-8 at home last year.
Queens won the ASUN Tournament and made its first NCAA Tournament last season, and the Royals arrive off a 103-98 win over Winthrop in which Jordan Watford scored 26 points.
Best Spread Pick Today: Loyola Marymount -8.5
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMU -8.5 | Yes | 49¢ | $197.10 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Loyola Marymount went 10-8 at home last season, while Queens went 6-10 on the road. Queens also allowed 98 points in its opener, a worry for a team now playing on the road.
The caution is that Queens is the more recent winner and the reigning ASUN Tournament champion, and Loyola Marymount has not played yet this season.
At 49 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 204 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Loyola Marymount wins by nine or more: Return of $197.10.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That's roughly 2x return in tonight's nightcap.
Queens vs Loyola Marymount Moneyline
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| QUC ML | Yes | 26% | $384.62 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| LMU ML | Yes | 75% | $133.33 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Loyola Marymount is priced at 75% to win outright and Queens at 26%.
Queens' price carries a 10-point drop on Polymarket's board, which we cover in the market-movement section below.
At 75 cents, a $100 buy works out to roughly 133 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Loyola Marymount wins: Return of roughly $133.33.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is an estimated return of roughly 1.3x, a modest payout for a team opening its season.
Queens vs Loyola Marymount Spread
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMU -8.5 | Yes | 49% | $197.10 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| QUC +8.5 (LMU -8.5 NO) | No | 53% | $188.68 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's spread is Loyola Marymount -8.5, matching ESPN's odds column. The board prices LMU -8.5 at 49% Yes and 53% No.
This is the line we're backing, and the full breakdown is in our pick below.
Queens vs Loyola Marymount Total
| 🏀 NCAAB Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 160.5 | Yes | 53% | $188.68 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
| Under 160.5 (Over NO) | No | 50% | $200.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's total is 160.5, the same number as ESPN's schedule. The Over is priced at 53% Yes and the Under at 50%.
Queens' win over Winthrop finished with 201 combined points, and the Royals gave up 98 in it.
At 53 cents, a $100 buy gets you roughly 189 shares, each worth one dollar if the contract resolves Yes.
- If the game reaches 161 or more total points: Return of roughly $188.68.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That is an estimated return of roughly 1.9x on a number Queens' opener cleared easily.
What's Moving the Market for NCAAB Predictions
Prediction markets and prices move for many reasons, and Polymarket does not show the reason behind any move. These are the changes visible on tonight's boards.
The biggest visible move is Queens' moneyline, which is down 10 points to 26%, while Loyola Marymount's moneyline ticked up one point to 75%. Loyola Marymount's spread price is down two points to 49%.
In the Butler game, the Over on 155.5 is down 10 points to 53%, and Butler's spread price is down three points to 49%. Wichita State's spread price is down two points to 54%, and South Dakota's moneyline is down one point to 43%.
A few other markers on the boards, including some totals showing drops of 45% or more, look more like line changes than true price swings, so we are not treating them as signals. Always check the live board before you trade.
How to Trade These College Basketball Picks on Polymarket
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- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
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Final Thoughts: Best College Basketball Picks Today
Tonight's slate is a first look at several teams, so the best college basketball picks today lean on price and early results rather than a long track record. The Butler and Loyola Marymount spreads have the clearest recent-results case, while South Dakota's moneyline carries the largest return.
That wraps our college basketball predictions today, and every NCAAB predictions pick we'd make on the Polymarket board for November 4. Check the live prices before you trade, because early-season numbers can move quickly.
College Basketball Predictions Today FAQs
What are the best college basketball picks today?
Our five picks are Butler -27.5, Wichita State -14.5, South Dakota on the moneyline, Under 157.5 in Radford vs California, and Loyola Marymount -8.5, all priced on Polymarket.
What are today's college basketball predictions?
Today's college basketball predictions cover five games on Polymarket: Fairleigh Dickinson vs Butler, Cal State Northridge vs Wichita State, Northern Kentucky vs South Dakota, Radford vs California, and Queens vs Loyola Marymount.
What are the NCAAB predictions for November 4?
The NCAAB predictions for November 4 lean toward Butler, Wichita State and Loyola Marymount covering their spreads, South Dakota winning at home as an underdog, and the Under in Radford vs California.
Which college basketball game has the biggest favorite today?
Butler is the biggest favorite on our board, priced at 98% to win outright against Fairleigh Dickinson, with a spread of 27.5 points.
Which pick has the biggest return on this slate?
South Dakota's moneyline carries the largest return of our five picks, at roughly 2.2 times the stake based on the ticket shown.
Why do some Polymarket lines differ from ESPN's odds?
Polymarket sets its own spreads and totals, so a number can sit a point above or below the sportsbook line shown on ESPN. The Wichita State spread and the Butler total are two examples tonight.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
Create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and enter the promo code shown in this article to unlock the offer before you place a trade.
How do Polymarket college basketball contracts resolve?
A contract pays one dollar per share if the outcome happens and nothing if it does not, and it resolves once the game is final based on the official result.
