Adam Hamilton is now the clear favorite in the Kansas Senate race 2026, trading at 63¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi on the eve of the vote after Roger Marshall slid to 40¢ and 38¢.
The Kansas Governor race 2026 has tightened too, with Ty Masterson down to 69¢ on Polymarket and 70¢ on Kalshi as Masterson vs Holscher polls narrow.
- Adam Hamilton, Roger Marshall, Ty Masterson and Cindy Holscher all have live Kansas Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and each platform also lists a Governor-Senate combo market.
- A final YouGov survey had Hamilton ahead just 50-49, far closer than the 9-point lead in the Washington Post/Schar School poll, while Masterson vs Holscher polls show the Governor race no wider than five points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Kansas Governor election and Kansas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms with Election Day arriving tomorrow, Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (63¢) | $158.73 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (63¢) | $158.73 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (38¢) | $263.16 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Each Polymarket Kansas contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
The Senate market and the Governor market both resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and Polymarket's boards list results as expected tomorrow at 8 p.m.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. That is an approximation in the Senate race, where Libertarian David Graham is also on the ballot.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Polymarket has moved its Senate label to Lean D, and Hamilton leads the board at 63¢, a 63% implied probability, with Marshall at 40¢.
Adam Hamilton (YES 63¢ / NO 40¢, +10 pts)
Hamilton gained 10 points, up from 52¢ on Friday, and now holds a 23-point lead over Marshall on the board.
The newest Hamilton vs Marshall polls are closer than that price might suggest. YouGov's final survey, fielded Oct. 26 to 29 among 2,092 likely voters, had him ahead 50-49, the thinnest margin of the four late-October public polls.
Two former Republican governors, Bill Graves and Mike Hayden, have also endorsed Hamilton, an unusual crossover in a state Trump carried by about 16 points in 2024.
Roger Marshall (YES 40¢ / NO 63¢, -10 pts)
Marshall fell 10 points to 40¢, giving up the even-money price he held on Friday at 50¢.
His case is mostly structural, since Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Republicans have also treated the race as a real threat, with The Dispatch reporting that internal polling convinced them to spend tens of millions of dollars and send Trump to Kansas twice.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
Polymarket still tags the Governor race Lean R, with Masterson at 69¢, a 69% implied probability, and Holscher at 32¢.
Ty Masterson (YES 69¢ / NO 32¢, -6 pts)
Masterson lost 6 points and now sits 6 below the 75¢ he showed on Friday.
Masterson vs Holscher polls have narrowed since September, when Emerson had him up 7 points. Emerson's final survey cut that to 50-46, and CNN had him ahead 50-45.
Cindy Holscher (YES 32¢ / NO 69¢, +4 pts)
Holscher gained 4 points to 32¢, which leaves her priced at roughly 3 to 1 against.
Kansas has elected Democratic governors before, with Laura Kelly winning in 2018 and 2022, and Kelly is term-limited this year, so Holscher is running for an open seat.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi quotes both a Yes and a No price on every candidate, so its board shows the full spread instead of a single implied number, and both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3.
Kalshi's Governor market has traded $607,729 in volume, and its Governor-Senate combo market has traded $166,805.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket on the favorite, with Hamilton at 63¢, so both exchanges now put the Democrat's chance of winning at 63%.
Adam Hamilton (YES 63¢ / NO 38¢, +12 pts)
Hamilton is up 12 points on Kalshi's board, and he traded at just 40¢ last Wednesday, a 23-point climb in five days.
The RealClearPolling average of recent surveys has him ahead 48.6% to 46.3%, a 2.3-point edge that is much smaller than the 25-point gap between the two Kalshi prices.
Roger Marshall (YES 38¢ / NO 63¢, -12 pts)
Marshall dropped 12 points to 38¢, 2¢ below Polymarket, and he was priced at 61¢ on Kalshi last Wednesday.
The Libertarian vote is the swing factor in a margin this thin. David Graham drew 3% in Emerson's final poll and 4% in the Washington Post/Schar School poll, enough to matter if the race lands inside a point or two.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's margin forecast has the Republican up 3.8 points, narrower than the 4.6 it showed on Friday, and Masterson sits at 70¢.
Ty Masterson (YES 70¢ / NO 31¢, -6 pts)
Masterson is down 6 points on the board and trades a cent above Polymarket.
The Trump-endorsed Senate president still has the better numbers in the nonpartisan surveys, and Emerson had him at 53-48 once undecided voters were pushed to pick a side.
Cindy Holscher (YES 32¢ / NO 69¢, +6 pts)
Holscher is up 6 points, mirroring Masterson's drop, and trades level with Polymarket at 32¢.
The board has a small quirk. A Masterson No at 31¢ costs a cent less than a Holscher Yes at 32¢, even though a Holscher win is the main way a Masterson No pays, a gap that usually reflects spread and order-book depth.
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Kansas Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, with each contract pairing a Governor outcome and a Senate outcome.
A Republican sweep is still the top single outcome at 39¢ on Polymarket and 38¢ on Kalshi, but the two Hamilton pairings together add up to 61¢ and 62¢.
Both platforms price all four pairings, and the sweeps moved the most: Polymarket shows the Republican sweep down 5 points and the Democratic sweep up 4, while Kalshi shows them down 4 and up 4. The Masterson and Hamilton split is unchanged on both.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 39¢ | NO 62¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 33¢ | NO 68¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 28¢ | NO 73¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 38¢ | NO 63¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 33¢ | NO 68¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 29¢ | NO 72¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election
The two boards agree on the Senate favorite to the cent. Hamilton sits at YES 63¢ on both exchanges, while Marshall is at YES 40¢ on Polymarket and YES 38¢ on Kalshi, the widest gap on any standalone contract.
The Governor board is just as tight. Masterson is at YES 69¢ on Polymarket and YES 70¢ on Kalshi, and Holscher is at YES 32¢ on both.
The combo boards line up closely, with the Masterson and Hamilton split at YES 33¢ on both exchanges, the GOP sweep at YES 39¢ and YES 38¢, and the Democratic sweep at YES 28¢ and YES 29¢, respectively.
The bigger gap is between the Senate boards and the newest polling. Hamilton vs Marshall polls from YouGov, Emerson and CNN have him ahead by 1, 4 and 4 points, a lead that sits close to those surveys' margins of error, yet both exchanges price him at YES 63¢.
Masterson vs Holscher polls point the other way, with Emerson at 50-46 and CNN at 50-45 for Masterson, and both boards keep him at YES 69¢ or better.
Both platforms carry a combo market here, so the real difference in how the boards are quoted is that Kalshi shows explicit YES and NO prices on both standalone races, while Polymarket quotes only each candidate's own YES price, which is why its NO prices above are derived.
Kansas Governor Election and Kansas Senate Race 2026 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Kansas Senate race 2026 board kept moving through the final weekend. Hamilton went from 40¢ on Kalshi last Wednesday and 52¢ and 53¢ on Friday to 63¢ on both exchanges, while Marshall slid from 61¢ to 40¢ on Polymarket and 38¢ on Kalshi.
The polling does not fully explain it. YouGov's final survey had Hamilton up 50-49, Emerson had him up 49-45 and the Washington Post/Schar School poll had him up 52-43, so the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls point to a lead anywhere from 1 point to 9.
Turnout and money add to the picture. More than 135,000 Johnson County voters had cast ballots as of the latest report, about 50% ahead of 2022, and Democrats cast nearly half of the county's advance ballots as of Oct. 27 against about 38% for Republicans.
Trump's Sunday rally at the Salina airport, which he called his 30th and final of the midterms, was the closing Republican push, and Marshall, Masterson, Sen. Jerry Moran and Reps. Tracey Mann and Ron Estes all spoke.
Marshall's route back runs through the Election Day electorate. In Emerson's survey, voters who had not yet cast ballots favored him 48% to 45%, while those who had already voted backed Hamilton 66% to 32%.
The Kansas Governor race 2026 moved less than the Senate race but in the same direction. Masterson is down 6 points on both exchanges and Holscher is up 4 on Polymarket and 6 on Kalshi, even though Masterson vs Holscher polls from Emerson and CNN still have the Republican ahead by 4 and 5 points and YouGov's final survey has the race inside a point.
The combo board prices the split. Adding the Democratic sweep to the Masterson and Hamilton split gives 61¢ on Polymarket and 62¢ on Kalshi for a Hamilton win, a touch below his 63¢ standalone price, while the two Masterson pairings give 72¢ and 71¢, above his 69¢ and 70¢ Governor prices.
The four combo YES prices add up to 102¢ on both exchanges, so a few cents of gap is expected and worth discounting.
The next repricing trigger is the count itself, with Polymarket listing results as expected tomorrow at 8 p.m. and in-person early voting in Johnson County closing at noon today.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (63¢) | $158.73 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (63¢) | $158.73 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (38¢) | $263.16 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (69¢) | $144.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (70¢) | $142.86 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (32¢) | $312.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026: Final Thoughts
This is a Kansas Senate race 2026 that traders now treat as a Democratic-favored contest at 63¢ on both exchanges, even though the newest polls put Hamilton's lead anywhere from 1 point to 9, and a Kansas Governor election where Masterson is still a clear but shrinking favorite at 69¢ and 70¢.
The combo board gives the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Republican sweep at 39¢ and 38¢ is still the top single outcome, but the Hamilton pairings together are worth 61¢ and 62¢, and tomorrow's vote count is the only catalyst left.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election FAQs
What are the current Kansas Senate race 2026 odds?
Adam Hamilton is trading at 63¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Roger Marshall sits at 40¢ on Polymarket and 38¢ on Kalshi.
What are the current Kansas Governor race 2026 odds?
Ty Masterson is trading at 69¢ on Polymarket and 70¢ on Kalshi, while Cindy Holscher sits at 32¢ on both.
Why did the Kansas Senate odds move after the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls?
Hamilton rose from 52¢ on Polymarket and 53¢ on Kalshi on Friday to 63¢ on both, and Marshall fell from 50¢ and 49¢ to 40¢ and 38¢. The late polls disagree on the size of his lead, with YouGov at 50-49, Emerson at 49-45 and the Washington Post/Schar School poll at 52-43, but all three have him ahead.
What do the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls show?
Hamilton vs Marshall polls favor the Democrat, with the Washington Post/Schar School poll at 52-43, YouGov at 50-49, and Emerson College and CNN both at 49-45. InsiderAdvantage had Marshall up 48-47 on October 13 and 14.
What do the latest Masterson vs Holscher polls show?
Masterson vs Holscher polls still lean Republican, with Emerson College at 50-46 and CNN at 50-45, while YouGov's final survey has the race inside a point. A Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group poll released by Holscher's campaign showed a 47-47 tie.
Are Masterson vs Holscher polls tightening before Election Day?
Somewhat. Emerson's lead for Masterson fell from 7 points in September to 4, and he is down 6 points on both exchanges, though Emerson had him ahead 53-48 once undecided voters were pushed to choose a side.
Do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Kansas Governor election differently?
Barely. Masterson is 69¢ on Polymarket and 70¢ on Kalshi, and Holscher is 32¢ on both. In the Senate race, Hamilton is 63¢ on both exchanges, and Marshall is 2¢ lower on Kalshi at 38¢.
What do the Kansas Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Polymarket prices a Masterson and Marshall sweep at 39¢, a Masterson and Hamilton split at 33¢, a Holscher and Hamilton sweep at 28¢ and a Holscher and Marshall split at 2¢. Kalshi has the same four outcomes at 38¢, 33¢, 29¢ and 2¢.
When is Election Day for the Kansas Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and in-person early voting in Johnson County ends at noon on Monday, November 2. Polymarket lists results as expected at 8 p.m. on Election Day.
How do I trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the Kansas Senate race 2026 or Kansas Governor race 2026 contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the result is called.
