The Texas Senate race reaches Election Eve with Polymarket pricing Democrat James Talarico at 75¢ and Kalshi at 76¢, even as the final Talarico vs Paxton polls run from a 1-point Paxton lead to a 7-point Talarico edge.
Both the Polymarket Texas Senate board and the Texas Senate Kalshi board have swung hard toward Talarico since the last update, leaving Republican Ken Paxton at 25¢ on Polymarket and 26¢ on Kalshi.
Here is where the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket and Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi money sits before polls open on Tuesday, November 3.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Texas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (75¢) | $131.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (25¢) | $380.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (76¢) | $129.39 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (26¢) | $365.65 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Texas Senate Odds: Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and map directly to implied probability, so Talarico's 75¢ Yes share implies a 75% chance and pays $1.00 if he wins the Senate seat.
The contract resolves on the winner of the November 3 general election, and positions can be sold back to the market at any point before then.
Polymarket's trade tickets quote both sides directly, so each No price below comes from the ticket rather than being derived from the opposing candidate's Yes price.
James Talarico (YES 75¢ / NO 26¢, +4 pts)
Talarico gained 4 points on the Polymarket Texas Senate board, and the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market now treats him as a 3-to-1 favorite.
The closing Talarico vs Paxton polls are the main reason. The New York Times and Siena College survey of 5,708 likely voters, fielded through November 1, has him ahead 50-43, and AtlasIntel's October 28 to November 1 poll has him up 51.3% to 45.4%.
Turnout and money back that up. More than 7.6 million Texans have voted early, more than 94% of the state's 2022 total, and Harris County had 862,700 ballots through Wednesday against 564,500 at the same point four years ago. Talarico has also raised $146.3 million through October 14 to Paxton's $22.3 million, according to FEC filings cited by Newsweek.
Ken Paxton (YES 25¢ / NO 76¢, -7 pts)
Paxton lost 7 points, the steepest drop on either board, but a 25¢ price still implies a one-in-four chance, and the last stretch of polling has not been uniformly bad for him.
Trafalgar's October 31 to November 1 survey found the two tied at 48%, and Quantus Insights had Paxton ahead 48.7% to 47.6% in a poll fielded October 26 to 28.
His path runs through Election Day. Republican researchers cited by NBC DFW counted more than 1 million reliably Republican voters who had not yet voted as of Thursday, and Vice President JD Vance campaigned in Parker County that day to push them out. Both candidates held rallies in San Antonio on Sunday.
Texas Senate Kalshi Odds: Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the Texas race as a regulated event contract that resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on each candidate, so the board shows the full spread.
The Texas Senate Kalshi market has now drawn about $74.9 million in volume, up from $52.7 million at the last update, and Kalshi's own margin forecast has Democrats up 3.8 points on November 3, versus 2.5 points then.
James Talarico (YES 76¢ / NO 25¢, +6 pts)
Kalshi has Talarico a cent above Polymarket, and the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi board shows a 6-point gain, a 76% implied probability.
The 3.8-point forecast is wider than the polling average. RealClearPolling's average of surveys fielded October 15 to November 1 had Talarico ahead 49.0% to 46.5%, a 2.5-point margin.
Decision Desk HQ's forecast is more cautious than either exchange. NewsNation reported on October 31 that it gave Talarico a 59% chance of winning.
Ken Paxton (YES 26¢ / NO 75¢, -6 pts)
Paxton fell 6 points on Kalshi, though 26¢ is still better than a one-in-four price.
The extra cent over Polymarket is partly structural. Kalshi's two YES prices add up to 102¢, against 100¢ on Polymarket's board, so some of that gap is spread rather than a different view of the race.
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How Polymarket Texas Senate and Texas Senate Kalshi Prices Compare
The exchanges agree on the favorite and on the shape of the race. Talarico sits at YES 75¢ on Polymarket and YES 76¢ on Kalshi, while Paxton sits at YES 25¢ and YES 26¢, respectively.
The No sides line up within a cent as well. Talarico's No is NO 26¢ on Polymarket and NO 25¢ on Kalshi, and Paxton's is NO 76¢ and NO 75¢.
The real difference shows up on the trade tickets. A $100 Talarico ticket returns $131.00 on Polymarket and $129.39 on Kalshi, while a $100 Paxton ticket returns $380.00 on Polymarket and $365.65 on Kalshi, a gap of $14.35 on the underdog.
The bigger gap is between the exchanges and the surveys. The polling average has Talarico up 2.5 points and Decision Desk HQ has him at 59%, yet neither exchange prices him below YES 75¢.
Texas Senate Race Price Analysis: Talarico vs Paxton Polls and Market Price Influencers
Both exchanges moved sharply since the last update, when each had Talarico at 69¢ and Paxton at 32¢. Polymarket now has them at 75¢ and 25¢, and Kalshi at 76¢ and 26¢.
The closing Talarico vs Paxton polls mostly explain it. NYT/Siena has Talarico up 7, CNN/SSRS up 6, AtlasIntel up 5.9, YouGov up 4 and Texas Southern University up 2, and Newsweek noted that the NYT/Siena margin is roughly twice its margin of error.
The dissenters are why the Texas Senate race is not a lock. Trafalgar had a 48-48 tie and Quantus had Paxton up 1, and the RealClearPolling average of 2.5 points is narrower than a 75¢ price implies.
Republicans are not hiding their nerves. Senator Ted Cruz said on his podcast that Republicans could lose Texas, and that Democrats are turning out in far larger numbers, while Texas Comptroller Don Huffines warned on X that the party is losing the state.
Election Day is the counterweight. In Texas Politics Project polling, 40% of Republicans said they planned to vote on Election Day, and Rice University's Mark Jones has said Paxton will win rural counties by large margins but that they are not a big enough share of the electorate.
The next repricing trigger is Tuesday itself. Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m., and the first returns will show whether Republican Election Day turnout is enough to close the gap.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (75¢) | $131.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (25¢) | $380.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (76¢) | $129.39 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (26¢) | $365.65 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Texas Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Texas Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This Texas Senate race is one the exchanges now price as a 3-to-1 Talarico favorite, with Polymarket at 75¢ and Kalshi at 76¢, while the polling average says he leads by only 2.5 points.
Republican Election Day turnout is the variable most likely to close that gap before the results come in on November 3.
Texas Senate Race FAQs
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?
Democrat James Talarico is the favorite at 75¢ on Polymarket and 76¢ on Kalshi, while Republican Ken Paxton sits at 25¢ on Polymarket and 26¢ on Kalshi.
What do the latest Talarico vs Paxton polls show?
The final polls favor Talarico, with NYT/Siena at 50-43 and AtlasIntel at 51.3-45.4, but Trafalgar found a 48-48 tie and Quantus had Paxton ahead 48.7-47.6. The RealClearPolling average has Talarico up 2.5 points.
What are the current Polymarket Texas Senate odds?
The Polymarket Texas Senate board has Talarico at 75¢, up 4 points, and Paxton at 25¢, down 7 points.
Where can I trade the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market?
You can trade the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market on Polymarket's Texas Senate election event page, or use the switchboard links in this article to jump straight to the order book.
What are the Texas Senate Kalshi odds for Talarico and Paxton?
The Texas Senate Kalshi market has Talarico at 76¢ and Paxton at 26¢, with a margin forecast of Democrats +3.8 and about $74.9 million in volume.
How does the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi market differ from Polymarket?
The Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi prices sit within a cent of Polymarket. Kalshi quotes both Yes and No on each candidate and publishes a margin forecast, and its two Yes prices add up to 102¢ compared with 100¢ on Polymarket.
Why are the exchanges more confident than the Texas Senate race polls?
Traders are weighing record early turnout, Talarico's fundraising edge and the late polls from NYT/Siena and AtlasIntel, which is why both exchanges sit at 75¢ or higher on Talarico while the polling average shows a 2.5-point lead and Decision Desk HQ gives him 59%.
How many Texans voted early in the Texas Senate race?
More than 7.6 million Texans voted early, according to Newsweek's reporting on Secretary of State figures, which is more than 94% of the state's total 2022 turnout.
When do polls open and close in Texas on Election Day?
Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, November 3.
How do I trade the Texas Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a Yes or No share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
