Adam Hamilton has flipped the Kansas Senate race 2026 into a Democratic-favored market, trading at 52¢ on Polymarket and 53¢ on Kalshi after Roger Marshall sat at 61¢ on both exchanges as recently as Wednesday.
The Kansas Governor race 2026 is moving the other way, with Ty Masterson at 75¢ on Polymarket and 73¢ on Kalshi even as the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls keep tilting toward the Democrat.
- Adam Hamilton, Roger Marshall, Ty Masterson and Cindy Holscher all have live Kansas Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and each platform also lists a Governor-Senate combo market.
- Friday's Emerson College poll had Hamilton ahead 49-45 and the Washington Post/Schar School poll had him up 52-43, while Masterson vs Holscher polls still show the Republican leading by four or five points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Kansas Governor election and Kansas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms with three days left before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (52¢) | $192.31 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (50¢) | $200.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (53¢) | $188.68 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (49¢) | $204.08 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (75¢) | $133.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Kansas contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Kansas Senate market and the Kansas Governor market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and traders can buy or sell positions at any point before then.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. That is an approximation in the Senate race, where Libertarian David Graham is also on the ballot.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Polymarket now labels the Senate race a Tossup and lists Hamilton first at 52¢, a 52% implied probability, with Marshall at 50¢ and the two prices adding up to more than 100¢.
Adam Hamilton (YES 52¢ / NO 50¢, +3 pts)
Hamilton gained 3 points and passed Marshall, an 11-point climb from the 41¢ he traded at on Wednesday.
Two polls released Friday morning gave traders the reason. Emerson College and Nexstar, polling 800 likely voters from Oct. 26 to 28, had him up 49-45 with Graham at 3%, and the Washington Post/Schar School poll had him ahead 52-43.
The internals favor him on timing. Emerson found voters who had already cast ballots backing Hamilton 66% to 32%, and independents breaking for him 59% to 25%, a 17-point improvement from September.
Roger Marshall (YES 50¢ / NO 52¢, -2 pts)
Marshall lost 2 points to 50¢, and he is now down 11 points since Wednesday.
His path runs through voters who haven't cast ballots yet. In the same Emerson poll, those voters favored him 48% to 45%, so a Marshall comeback depends on the Election Day vote.
Trump canceled a planned Saturday rally for Marshall in Salina on Thursday, then USA Today reported Friday that rallies in Kansas and Iowa are now set for Sunday. Emerson has Trump's approval at 45% among Kansas likely voters, with 51% disapproving.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
Polymarket tags the Kansas Governor race 2026 Likely R, a step firmer than Cook's Toss Up rating from Oct. 27, and prices Masterson at 75¢, a 75% implied probability.
Ty Masterson (YES 75¢ / NO 26¢, +2 pts)
Masterson gained 2 points while Hamilton surged, which shows the Governor board did not follow the Senate repricing.
The Masterson vs Holscher polls still point his way. Emerson had him ahead 50-46 and CNN had him up 50-45, though Emerson's September poll had his lead at 7 points.
Cindy Holscher (YES 26¢ / NO 75¢, -3 pts)
Holscher lost 3 points, giving back the ground she gained after Cook's rating change.
Her best number is the early vote. Emerson has voters who already cast ballots backing her 65% to 35%, but those who have not voted yet favor Masterson 53% to 43%, so she needs the banked lead to hold.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists both races as regulated event contracts with Yes and No sides tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Senate market has traded $6,850,482 in volume.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Kalshi's margin forecast flipped from Republican +1.2 on Thursday to Democrat +0.1, and Hamilton now leads the board at 53¢, a 53% implied probability.
Adam Hamilton (YES 53¢ / NO 48¢, +3 pts)
Hamilton gained 3 points and trades a cent above Polymarket, 13 points higher than the 40¢ he traded at on Wednesday.
Kalshi's price chart shows how long the climb has been, with Marshall priced near 90% for most of 2025 and the two lines crossing this week.
Graham is the wildcard at 3% in Emerson and 4% in the Post poll, a share close to Hamilton's four-point Emerson lead, so Libertarian votes matter in a margin this thin.
Roger Marshall (YES 49¢ / NO 52¢, -3 pts)
Marshall dropped 3 points to 49¢, 12 points below where he sat Wednesday, and now trades below Hamilton on both exchanges.
He still has structural arguments. Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in 2024, Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and Cook and Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race to Toss Up on Oct. 6 and Oct. 14 rather than to a Democratic lean.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's margin forecast has the Republican up 4.6 points, wider than the 4.1 it showed Thursday, and Masterson sits at 73¢.
Ty Masterson (YES 73¢ / NO 28¢, +2 pts)
Masterson gained 2 points on the board and trades 2¢ below Polymarket, the widest gap between the exchanges on any standalone contract.
The Trump-endorsed Senate president has a lead that has narrowed but held across the newest surveys, including a 53-48 Emerson edge once undecided voters are pushed to pick a side.
Cindy Holscher (YES 28¢ / NO 73¢, -2 pts)
Holscher slipped 2 points and trades 2¢ above Polymarket.
Her path depends on whether the early-vote advantage Emerson found holds up against an Election Day electorate that leans toward Masterson.
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Kansas Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Republican sweep is still the top outcome at 44¢ on Polymarket and 45¢ on Kalshi, with a Masterson win paired with a Hamilton win next at 33¢ on both and the Democratic sweep at 23¢ and 21¢.
Both platforms price all four pairings, and the sweep and the split moved the most: Polymarket shows the GOP sweep down 9 points and the Masterson and Hamilton split up 9, while Kalshi shows the sweep down 5 and the split up 7.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 44¢ | NO 57¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 33¢ | NO 69¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 23¢ | NO 78¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 4¢ | NO 97¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 45¢ | NO 56¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 33¢ | NO 68¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 21¢ | NO 80¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 3¢ | NO 98¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election
The two boards agree on the new Senate favorite to within a cent. Hamilton sits at YES 52¢ on Polymarket and YES 53¢ on Kalshi, while Marshall is at YES 50¢ and YES 49¢, respectively.
The Governor board shows the only 2¢ gaps. Masterson is at YES 75¢ on Polymarket and YES 73¢ on Kalshi, and Holscher is at YES 26¢ and YES 28¢, so Polymarket is the firmer exchange for the Republican.
The combo boards agree almost as closely, with the Masterson and Hamilton split at YES 33¢ on both exchanges, the GOP sweep at YES 44¢ and YES 45¢, and the Democratic sweep at YES 23¢ and YES 21¢.
The bigger gap is between the exchanges and the newest polling. Hamilton vs Marshall polls from CNN, Emerson and the Post have him ahead by 4, 4 and 9 points, yet neither board has him above YES 53¢.
Masterson vs Holscher polls tell a different story, with Emerson at 50-46 and CNN at 50-45 for Masterson, and both boards keep him at YES 73¢ or better.
Both platforms carry a combo market here, so the real difference in how the boards are quoted is that Kalshi shows explicit YES and NO prices on both standalone races, while Polymarket quotes only each candidate's own YES price, which is why its NO prices above are derived.
Kansas Governor Election and Kansas Senate Race 2026 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Kansas Senate race 2026 board repriced twice in three days. Marshall went from 61¢ on both exchanges Wednesday to 52¢ Thursday, then to 50¢ on Polymarket and 49¢ on Kalshi Friday, while Hamilton rose from 41¢ and 40¢ to 52¢ and 53¢ and took the lead on both boards.
Polls explain most of it. CNN's poll on Thursday and Emerson's on Friday both had Hamilton ahead 49-45, and the Washington Post/Schar School poll, also released Friday, had him up 52-43 with Graham at 4%, a nine-point margin that is the widest of the three.
The Emerson crosstabs explain why traders leaned in. Voters who had already cast ballots backed Hamilton 66% to 32%, while those who haven't voted split 48% for Marshall and 45% for Hamilton, so Hamilton has a banked lead and Marshall needs Election Day to deliver.
Turnout supports the early-vote story. More than 135,000 Johnson County voters had cast ballots as of Thursday, about 50% ahead of 2022 at the same stage, and the county's election commissioner expects 165,000 to 170,000 early votes before Election Day.
The politics added to the noise. Trump canceled a Saturday Kansas rally on Thursday, and the report that he will now hold a Kansas rally on Sunday landed the same morning as the Post poll.
The case for Marshall is still there. CNN's and Emerson's four-point leads sit close to their 4.5-point and 3.5-point error ranges, Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Kansas Senate race since 1932, which is why Marshall is still essentially a coin flip at 50¢ and 49¢.
The Kansas Governor election did not follow. Masterson gained 2 points on both boards and Holscher lost 3 on Polymarket and 2 on Kalshi, even though Masterson vs Holscher polls from Emerson and CNN put the Republican's lead at 4 and 5 points, narrower than the 7 Emerson showed in September.
The combo board prices that split. Adding the Democratic sweep to the Masterson and Hamilton split gives 56¢ on Polymarket and 54¢ on Kalshi for a Hamilton win, a touch above his 52¢ and 53¢ standalone prices, while the two Masterson pairings give 77¢ and 78¢, above his 75¢ and 73¢ Governor prices.
The four combo YES prices add up to 104¢ on Polymarket and 102¢ on Kalshi, so a few cents of gap is expected and worth discounting.
The next repricing triggers are close at hand: the final Hamilton vs Marshall polls, Sunday's Trump rally, and the last day of early voting on Monday, which ends at noon in Johnson County.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (52¢) | $192.31 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (50¢) | $200.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (53¢) | $188.68 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (49¢) | $204.08 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (75¢) | $133.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026: Final Thoughts
This is two boards pointing in different directions: the Kansas Senate race 2026, where Hamilton has taken a slim lead at 52¢ and 53¢ after three independent polls put him ahead, and the Kansas Governor election, where Masterson is still roughly a 3-to-1 favorite at 75¢ and 73¢.
Watch the combo board for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Republican sweep at 44¢ and 45¢ still leads, but a Masterson win paired with a Hamilton win at 33¢ is the clear second choice, and Sunday's Trump rally, Monday's last day of early voting and the final polls are the likeliest things to move the picture before November 3.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election FAQs
What are the current Kansas Senate race 2026 odds?
Adam Hamilton is trading at 52¢ on Polymarket and 53¢ on Kalshi, while Roger Marshall sits at 50¢ on Polymarket and 49¢ on Kalshi.
What are the current Kansas Governor race 2026 odds?
Ty Masterson is trading at 75¢ on Polymarket and 73¢ on Kalshi, while Cindy Holscher sits at 26¢ on Polymarket and 28¢ on Kalshi.
Why did the Kansas Senate odds move after the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls?
Emerson College and the Washington Post/Schar School released polls Friday with Hamilton ahead 49-45 and 52-43, a day after CNN also had him up 49-45. Marshall fell from 61¢ on Wednesday to 50¢ on Polymarket and 49¢ on Kalshi, and Hamilton rose from 41¢ and 40¢ to 52¢ and 53¢.
What do the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls show?
Hamilton vs Marshall polls now favor the Democrat. The Washington Post/Schar School poll has Hamilton up 52-43, Emerson College and CNN both have him up 49-45, and YouGov had him up 48-45 in early October, while InsiderAdvantage had Marshall up 48-47 on October 13 and 14.
What do the latest Masterson vs Holscher polls show?
Masterson vs Holscher polls still favor the Republican. Emerson College has Masterson ahead 50-46, down from a 51-44 lead in September, CNN has him up 50-45, and YouGov had him up 47-44 in early October.
Are Masterson vs Holscher polls tightening before Election Day?
Somewhat. Emerson's final poll cut Masterson's lead from 7 points to 4, and early voters in that poll back Holscher 65-35, but voters who haven't cast ballots yet favor Masterson 53-43. Polymarket moved Holscher down 3 points to 26¢ on Friday.
Do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Kansas Governor election differently?
Slightly. Masterson is 75¢ on Polymarket and 73¢ on Kalshi, and Holscher is 26¢ on Polymarket and 28¢ on Kalshi. In the Senate race, the boards are within a cent, with Hamilton at 52¢ and 53¢, which usually reflects different trader bases and order-book depth.
What do the Kansas Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Polymarket prices a Masterson and Marshall sweep at 44¢, a Masterson and Hamilton split at 33¢, a Holscher and Hamilton sweep at 23¢ and a Holscher and Marshall split at 4¢. Kalshi has the same four outcomes at 45¢, 33¢, 21¢ and 3¢.
When does early voting end for the Kansas Governor election?
In-person early voting in Johnson County ends at noon on Monday, November 2, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. More than 135,000 Johnson County voters had already cast ballots as of Thursday, October 29.
How do I trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the Kansas Senate race 2026 or Kansas Governor race 2026 contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
