Kansas Senate Race Polls & Odds | Major Movement in Hamilton vs Marshall Polls + Kansas Governor Race Predictions

The Kansas Senate race 2026 turned into a near coin flip on Thursday, with Roger Marshall sliding 9 points to 52¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi after a new CNN poll put Adam Hamilton ahead 49-45.

The Kansas Governor race 2026 moved far less, with Ty Masterson at 73¢ on both exchanges, while the Hamilton vs Marshall polls have tilted toward the Democrat.

• Roger Marshall, Adam Hamilton, Ty Masterson and Cindy Holscher all have live Kansas Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and both platforms also list a Governor-Senate combo market.
• CNN's SSRS poll of 838 likely voters had Hamilton ahead 49-45, inside its 4.5-point margin of error, while Masterson vs Holscher polls still show Masterson leading in the nonpartisan surveys.

Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Kansas Governor election and Kansas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.

Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms with five days left before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.

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Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts

Polymarket's Kansas contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.

Both the Kansas Senate market and the Kansas Governor market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and traders can buy or sell positions at any point before then.

Kansas Senate Race 2026

Polymarket changed its Senate label from Lean R to Tossup, and the board followed, with Marshall down to 52¢, a 52% implied probability, and Hamilton up to 49¢.

Roger Marshall (YES 52¢ / NO 49¢, -9 pts)

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Marshall lost 9 points, falling from 61¢ on Wednesday, after CNN published an SSRS poll of 838 likely voters (Oct. 20-26) that had Hamilton ahead 49-45.

The margin sits inside the poll's 4.5-point error range and CNN called it no clear leader, but it is a step beyond the 1-point Marshall edges in the last two surveys from InsiderAdvantage and Red Box Research.

Marshall still has real arguments left. Likely voters in the CNN poll said they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate, and at least six in ten of the Kansas voters who could still change their minds lean Republican.

Adam Hamilton (YES 49¢ / NO 52¢, +8 pts)

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Hamilton gained 8 points as the CNN poll gave traders a reason to price a true toss-up.

Most Kansas likely voters in the survey view Marshall negatively, 59% of Hamilton's supporters say opposition to Marshall is their main motivation, and about 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters back Hamilton, a broader crossover than for any other Democrat CNN tested.

Voters with no opinion of Hamilton, roughly a fifth of the electorate, still favored him over Marshall, though Kansas hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

Kansas Governor Race 2026

Polymarket still tags the Kansas Governor race 2026 Lean R, a step behind Cook's Toss Up rating from Tuesday, and prices Masterson at 73¢, a 73% implied probability.

Ty Masterson (YES 73¢ / NO 29¢, -2 pts)

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Masterson slipped from 75¢ on Wednesday and still leads the nonpartisan polling, with Emerson at 51-44, Times/Siena at 49-44 and YouGov at 47-44.

Those surveys were fielded in September or early October, before Cook's Toss Up call and the Senate repricing, so the Governor board is adjusting to a new environment.

Cindy Holscher (YES 29¢ / NO 73¢, +3 pts)

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Holscher gained 3 points, and her case rests on Cook's rating change and a Global Strategy Group poll, released by her campaign, that showed a 47-47 tie from October 18 to 21.

A strong Hamilton night does not automatically carry her, though. Emerson found independents backing Hamilton by 15 points in the Senate race but Masterson by 2 points in the Governor race.

Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts

Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.

Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Senate market has traded $5,813,640 in volume against $369,586 on the Governor market.

Kansas Senate Race 2026

Kalshi matches Polymarket on Marshall at 52¢, a 52% implied probability, and its margin forecast has narrowed to Republican +1.2.

Roger Marshall (YES 52¢ / NO 49¢, -9 pts)

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Marshall dropped 9 points on Kalshi, matching the move on Polymarket, and 52¢ is a long way from the nearly 83% Kalshi had on him in early September, according to Kalshi's own market analysis.

The slide has tracked the ratings and the polling. Cook moved the race to Toss Up on October 6, Sabato's Crystal Ball followed on October 14, and the CNN poll added a 4-point Hamilton lead.

Adam Hamilton (YES 50¢ / NO 51¢, +9 pts)

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Hamilton gained 9 points on Kalshi and now trades at 50¢, a true coin flip and a cent above Polymarket.

Part of the move is the market catching up to the polls. PollCheck's average, which includes a Hamilton campaign poll, already had Hamilton ahead 46.1% to 45.2% on October 28, before the CNN survey, while Marshall was still near 60¢ on Kalshi.

Graham, at 3.7% in that average, is a larger share than either candidate's lead, so the Libertarian vote remains the wildcard.

Kansas Governor Race 2026

Kalshi's margin forecast has the Republican up 4.1 points, in line with the roughly 4-point Masterson lead in PollCheck's October 27 average.

Ty Masterson (YES 73¢ / NO 28¢, -2 pts)

• Trade 'Yes' (73¢)
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Masterson dropped 2 points on Kalshi, matching Polymarket, and trades at the same 73¢.

He is leaning on a property tax relief plan he brands the Kansas Homeowners Bill of Rights, and he has toned down his pro-Trump messaging for the general election, according to Kansas City Public Radio.

Cindy Holscher (YES 29¢ / NO 72¢, +2 pts)

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• Trade 'No' (72¢)

Holscher gained 2 points on Kalshi, and her 29¢ price is identical to Polymarket's.

She is running hard against data centers and competing with Masterson for unaffiliated and moderate voters, the same group that is splitting its tickets between Hamilton and Masterson.

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Kansas Governor-Senate Combo Bets

Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.

A Republican sweep is still the favorite, but only just, at 53¢ on Polymarket and 51¢ on Kalshi, with the Democratic sweep at 25¢ and 22¢ and a Masterson win paired with a Hamilton win at 24¢ and 28¢.

Both platforms price all four pairings, and the sweeps moved the most: Polymarket shows the GOP sweep down 3 points and the Democratic sweep up 6, while Kalshi shows the GOP sweep down 5 and the Democratic sweep up 2, on a combo market that has traded $102,871.

How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election

The two boards now agree almost exactly on the standalone races. Marshall sits at YES 52¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, and Masterson is at YES 73¢ on both.

The underdogs match too. Hamilton trades at YES 49¢ on Polymarket and YES 50¢ on Kalshi, and Holscher is at YES 29¢ on both, so the only standalone gap is a single cent on Hamilton.

The combo boards are where the exchanges disagree. The Masterson and Hamilton split is YES 24¢ on Polymarket and YES 28¢ on Kalshi, the Democratic sweep is YES 25¢ against YES 22¢, and the GOP sweep is YES 53¢ against YES 51¢.

Polymarket's traders are leaning toward a full Democratic sweep, while Kalshi's are giving more weight to Hamilton winning and Masterson holding the Governor's office, a gap of a few cents that reads as a difference in trader bases rather than a signal.

The wider spread is in the polling itself. Hamilton vs Marshall polls now run from co/efficient's 5-point Marshall lead in September to CNN's 4-point Hamilton lead, and Masterson vs Holscher polls run from Emerson's 7-point Masterson lead to the 47-47 tie in the Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group survey.

Both platforms carry a combo market here, so the real difference in how the boards are quoted is that Kalshi shows explicit YES and NO prices on both standalone races, while Polymarket quotes only each candidate's own YES price, which is why its NO prices above are derived.

Kansas Governor Election and Kansas Senate Race 2026 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers

The Kansas Senate race 2026 board repriced in a single move. Marshall fell from 61¢ on Wednesday to 52¢ on both exchanges, and Hamilton rose from 41¢ to 49¢ on Polymarket and to 50¢ on Kalshi, after CNN's SSRS poll showed him ahead 49-45.

The reaction was sharp partly because some polling averages were already tilting his way. PollCheck, which includes a Hamilton campaign poll, had him up 46.1% to 45.2% on Wednesday, so the market was catching up as much as it was reacting.

The poll's internals explain why traders took it seriously. Marshall is viewed negatively by most likely voters, 59% of Hamilton's backers cite opposition to Marshall as their main reason, and Hamilton holds about 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters.

The same release had Democrats leading in Texas and Michigan and slightly ahead in Maine, which gave traders a wider read on the national environment the same morning.

The case for Marshall is still there. The CNN margin is inside its 4.5-point error range, likely voters said they prefer Republican control of the Senate, and Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, which is why he remains a slight favorite at 52¢.

The Kansas Governor election moved at a fraction of that size. Masterson fell 2 points on both exchanges and Holscher gained 3 on Polymarket and 2 on Kalshi, following Cook's Toss Up call, though a 73¢ price still treats Masterson as the clear favorite.

The combo board lines up with the Senate move. Adding the Democratic sweep to the Masterson and Hamilton split gives 49¢ on Polymarket and 50¢ on Kalshi for a Hamilton win, an exact match for his standalone prices, while the two Masterson pairings give 77¢ and 79¢, above his 73¢ Governor price.

The four combo YES prices add up to 106¢ on Polymarket and 104¢ on Kalshi, so a few cents of gap is expected and worth discounting.

The next batch of Hamilton vs Marshall polls and Masterson vs Holscher polls is the likeliest trigger for another repricing, along with turnout. More than 245,000 Kansans had voted early as of Tuesday, up about 80% from 2022, and in-person early voting in Johnson County ends at noon Monday.

How to Trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 on Prediction Markets

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026: Final Thoughts

Thursday's CNN poll turned the Kansas Senate race 2026 from a Marshall lean into a true toss-up on both exchanges, while the Kansas Governor election still has Masterson as a 73¢ favorite even with Cook calling it a toss-up.

Watch the combo board for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Republican sweep at 53¢ and 51¢ is still the top outcome, but a Democratic sweep at 25¢ and 22¢ and a Masterson and Hamilton split at 24¢ and 28¢ are now live, and the final polls and turnout are the likeliest things to move the board again before November 3.

Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election FAQs

What are the current Kansas Senate race 2026 odds?

Roger Marshall is trading at 52¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Adam Hamilton sits at 49¢ on Polymarket and 50¢ on Kalshi.

What are the current Kansas Governor race 2026 odds?

Ty Masterson is trading at 73¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Cindy Holscher sits at 29¢ on both.

Why did the Kansas Senate odds move after the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls?

A CNN poll conducted by SSRS from October 20 to 26 showed Hamilton ahead 49-45 among 838 likely voters, within its 4.5-point margin of error. Marshall fell 9 points to 52¢ on both exchanges, and Hamilton rose to 49¢ on Polymarket and 50¢ on Kalshi.

What do the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls show?

The polls are tight but have tilted toward Hamilton. CNN has him up 49-45, YouGov has him up 48-45 and Emerson has him up 45-43, Times/Siena and Trafalgar had ties, Red Box Research had Marshall up 46-45 from October 20 to 23, InsiderAdvantage had Marshall up 48-47 on October 13 and 14, and co/efficient had Marshall up 49-44 in September.

What do the latest Masterson vs Holscher polls show?

Emerson has Masterson ahead 51-44, Times/Siena has him up 49-44, YouGov has him up 47-44 and co/efficient had him up 51-43 in September, while a Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group poll released by Holscher's campaign shows a 47-47 tie from October 18 to 21.

Are Masterson vs Holscher polls tightening before Election Day?

The picture is mixed. Cook moved the race to a toss-up on Tuesday and Holscher gained 2 to 3 points on the exchanges to 29¢, but the Emerson, Times/Siena and YouGov polls that have Masterson ahead by 3 to 7 points were all fielded before that.

Do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Kansas Governor election differently?

No. Masterson is 73¢ on both exchanges and Holscher is 29¢ on both. The only standalone gap is Hamilton in the Senate race, at 49¢ on Polymarket and 50¢ on Kalshi, which usually reflects different trader bases and order-book depth.

What do the Kansas Governor-Senate combo bets show?

Polymarket prices a Masterson and Marshall sweep at 53¢, a Masterson and Hamilton split at 24¢, a Holscher and Hamilton sweep at 25¢ and a Holscher and Marshall split at 4¢. Kalshi has the same four outcomes at 51¢, 28¢, 22¢ and 3¢.

When does early voting end for the Kansas Governor election?

In-person early voting in Johnson County ends at noon on Monday, November 2, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. More than 245,000 Kansans had already voted early as of Tuesday, October 27.

How do I trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 odds?

Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the Kansas Senate race 2026 or Kansas Governor race 2026 contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.