Meta spent last week getting punished for its AI spending and Monday getting forgiven for it. The stock rallied roughly 6.6% to close at $590.24 on August 3, its best session since the Q2 report, as easing capex fears across big tech pulled the whole complex higher.
Tuesday is the test of whether that rebound holds. Polymarket's daily "META Up or Down" market resolves on one question: does the Meta stock price finish above or below Monday's close when regular trading ends at 4:00 PM ET?
Meta Stock Price Today: Polymarket Odds and Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price is the implied probability. A contract at 65¢ means the market is assigning roughly a 65% chance to that outcome, with a winning share redeeming for $1.00 and a losing share going to zero.
Nothing is locked in until the bell. Traders can buy and sell positions throughout the day, which is why a daily equity market reprices continuously rather than sitting still.
The resolution rules leave no room for interpretation. This market settles "Up" if Meta's closing price on August 4 is higher than its close on the most recent prior trading day, and "Down" if it is lower. That makes $590.24 the number to clear. Exactly equal closes resolve 50-50.
Polymarket resolves off Pyth data, using the one-minute candle covering the final minute of regular trading, and only prices between 9:30 AM and 4:00 PM ET count. The market opened at 4:01 PM ET on August 3 and runs to Tuesday's close. Because the board moves all session, use the live odds table on this page rather than any fixed figure.
Down: Monday's Rebound Runs Into the Capex Question
Down held the favorite's role through the morning, and the logic is less about fresh bad news than about what Monday's move actually was. Meta rose about 6.5% on a day the broader Communication Services sector gained 2.93%, meaning the stock climbed on sector relief rather than anything company-specific.
Relief rallies of that size invite profit-taking. Anyone who bought the post-earnings washout was handed a fast double-digit bounce, and giving a piece of it back on the next session is the path of least resistance.
The structural picture also has not changed. As of Monday's close Meta was still trading below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day sitting under the 200-day in a pattern chart watchers call a death cross. Shares are down roughly 23.5% over the past 12 months, so the trend Monday interrupted is still pointing lower.
Up: A Beaten-Down Name With Room to Snap Back
The bull case is that Meta is now cheap enough that the AI spending story cuts the other way. The stock sits far below its August 2025 record close of $787.42, and Wall Street's consensus target of about $767.42 still implies significant upside even after post-earnings cuts.
Those cuts were also less severe than the price action suggested. UBS moved to $715, Goldman Sachs to $725, Baird to $750 and Roth Capital to $750 from $820, but each kept a bullish rating on the name. Jefferies has stayed at Buy, and Cathie Wood's ARK Invest funds bought into the selloff.
Momentum can matter more than the tape on a single session, and Monday established that buyers are willing to step in. If the AI infrastructure trade stays firm, Meta needs only a modest gain to clear the reference price.
Other META Markets Worth Watching
- Meta closes above ___ on August 5: A strike-based market for traders with a view on magnitude rather than pure direction.
- Meta Up or Down on August 5: Wednesday's daily window, already open and repricing off Tuesday's action.
- What will META hit in August 2026: A monthly market that ignores single-session noise and trades the post-earnings trend.
- SPY Up or Down on August 4: The tape check. Comparing this to the META board isolates how much of today's move is company-specific.
- S&P 500 closes above ___ on August 4: A broader index market for traders who think the macro backdrop is doing the work.
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META Stock Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
Everything on this board traces back to the July 29 earnings report, which split cleanly down the middle. Revenue of $60.8 billion rose 28% year over year and beat consensus, with ad impressions up 14% and average price per ad up 12%. The advertising engine is not the problem.
The problem is what the AI buildout is doing to the income statement. Diluted EPS came in at $6.18 against roughly $7.20 expected, a 13% decline, as total costs and expenses jumped 55% to $42.03 billion. That figure included $2.4 billion in legal charges and $1.18 billion in severance tied to an 8,000-person headcount reduction in May.
Cash flow is where investors flinched hardest. Free cash flow fell to $784 million from roughly $8.5 billion a year earlier and $12.4 billion in the prior quarter, while operating margin compressed to 31% from 43%. Meta also disclosed that future lease obligations, largely tied to AI data centers, have swelled to about $279 billion.
Full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance now sits at $130 billion to $145 billion, with the low end raised. That is close to double the $72.2 billion spent in 2025, and Q3 revenue guidance of $61 billion to $64 billion came in below the roughly $63.15 billion analysts wanted, which is the crux of the bear argument: the spending is outrunning the monetization.
Monday flipped the framing rather than the facts. Strong results from Amazon and Microsoft convinced the market that heavy AI capex is a competitive necessity rather than a red flag, and Meta caught the updraft. Nothing about its own numbers improved.
For the rest of the session, watch whether Meta tracks the broader tape or diverges from it. When mega-cap peers are green and this board still favors Down, the market is telling you the selling pressure is specific to Meta rather than macro. Only the regular-session close settles the contract, so late-day flows carry outsized weight.
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Meta Stock Price Today: Final Thoughts
This market is pricing a fade, not a collapse. A 6.6% one-day rebound in a stock still trading below every major moving average is the kind of move traders expect to give ground, and the board has reflected that from the open.
The variable is conviction. If the market has genuinely decided Meta's AI spending is an investment rather than a leak, Tuesday holds. If Monday was sector relief and nothing more, the reference price stays out of reach.
META Stock Price Polymarket FAQs
What does the META up or down market on Polymarket resolve on?
It resolves "Up" if Meta's closing price on August 4, 2026 is higher than its close on the most recent prior trading day, and "Down" if it is lower. Polymarket uses Pyth data for the one-minute candle at the end of regular trading hours.
What is the price to beat for the Meta stock price today?
Monday's close of $590.24. META has to finish Tuesday's regular session above that level for the market to resolve Up.
What is the META stock price doing today?
Meta was trading lower during Tuesday's session, giving back part of Monday's rebound, which is why the board favored Down. Intraday pricing moves constantly, so check the live odds table on this page for the current read.
Why did Meta stock jump on August 3?
Shares rose about 6.6% as fears over AI-related capital spending eased following strong quarterly results from Amazon and Microsoft. Meta outpaced its sector on the day without any company-specific catalyst.
Why did Meta stock fall after Q2 earnings?
Revenue of $60.8 billion beat expectations, but EPS of $6.18 missed by roughly 13%, free cash flow collapsed to $784 million and Q3 revenue guidance came in light. Shares dropped as much as 10.4% in the session after the report.
How much is Meta spending on AI in 2026?
Full-year capital expenditure guidance is $130 billion to $145 billion, with the low end raised from $125 billion. That is nearly double the $72.2 billion Meta spent in 2025.
Does pre-market or after-hours trading count for this market?
No. Only prices achieved during regular trading hours, typically 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET on the primary exchange, are considered for resolution.
What happens if META closes exactly flat?
If the two closing prices are exactly equal as published by Pyth, without rounding, the market resolves 50-50.
