The Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race both lean Democratic on Polymarket and Kalshi the day before Election Day, with Jocelyn Benson near 94¢ on both exchanges and Abdul El-Sayed at 79¢ on Polymarket and 78¢ on Kalshi.
- Benson, James, El-Sayed and Rogers all have live Michigan Governor election and Senate contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi, and both exchanges also list a Governor-Senate combo market.
- The latest El Sayed vs Rogers polls run from a 1-point race to a 7-point El-Sayed lead, while the newest Benson vs James polls have Benson ahead in every survey, by 3 to 12 points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls open on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (7¢) | $1,428.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (93.9¢) | $106.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (6.4¢) | $1,562.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (79¢) | $126.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (22¢) | $454.55 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (78¢) | $128.21 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (22¢) | $454.55 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Michigan Governor Election and Michigan Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Michigan contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Michigan Governor election market and the Senate market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and Polymarket lists both as expected to resolve with Tuesday night's results.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. They are approximations, since minor-party candidates also appear on Michigan's general election ballot.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Polymarket prices Benson as a heavy favorite for the seat Gretchen Whitmer is leaving, and the board's own label for the race reads Safe D.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 94¢ / NO 7¢)
Benson trades at 94¢, implying a 94% probability, a firmer call than the Lean D consensus rating that MultiState averages from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News.
The latest Benson vs James polls back the favorite without fully matching the price. The RealClearPolitics average has her ahead 51.1% to 43.3% across eight polls, with Rasmussen Reports showing a 10-point lead from October 28 to 29 and CBS News showing a 5-point lead from October 26 to 27.
John James (YES 7¢ / NO 94¢)
James slipped less than a point on Polymarket, and 7¢ is a 7% probability for a Trump-endorsed Republican in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since Rick Snyder's 2014 reelection.
His closing case rests on cost of living and a pledge to cut the state's 4.25% income tax by 25% in his first year, along with an effort in the October debates to separate himself from Trump on the Iran war and Canadian tariffs.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
The Senate board is the tighter of the two, and it is the one absorbing late news after Haley Stevens, the congresswoman El-Sayed beat in the August primary, endorsed Rogers on Sunday.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 79¢ / NO 22¢, +2 pts)
El-Sayed gained 2 points to 79¢, a 79% implied probability, and Polymarket labels the race Likely D even with the endorsement on the books.
The El Sayed vs Rogers polls have mostly moved his way over the past week. YouGov had him ahead 51% to 47% in an October 26 to 29 survey of 2,093 likely voters, and the RealClearPolitics average stands at 50.1% to 44.8%.
Mike Rogers (YES 22¢ / NO 79¢, -2 pts)
Rogers lost 2 points to 22¢, a 22% implied probability, even after picking up the endorsement of El-Sayed's former primary rival.
Stevens announced it after attending a Detroit church service with Rogers, saying El-Sayed's campaign had told her she was no longer welcome, and her top aide quit over the decision. El-Sayed brushed it off and said he is focused on the cost of living.
Rogers still needs independents and older voters to carry him. A Mitchell Research poll had El-Sayed ahead of him 52% to 38% among independents, but Rogers led 62% to 35% among voters 65 and older.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, and both Yes and No trade on every line, so its board quotes an actual price on each side rather than a derived one.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and the Senate market has traded more than $26.2 million in volume, far deeper than the $888,368 on the Governor board.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Kalshi quotes Benson to a tenth of a cent, and its margin forecast has the Democrat winning by 9.6 points, above the 7.8-point polling average.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 93.9¢ / NO 6.4¢, +1.1 pts)
Benson gained 1.1 points on Kalshi, where 93.9¢ implies a probability of roughly 94%, in line with Polymarket's 94¢.
That 9.6-point forecast matches Whitmer's winning margin in 2018 and sits a point under her 10.5-point reelection win in 2022. Democrats also held a $23 million to $1 million edge in future television reservations as of October 1.
John James (YES 6.4¢ / NO 93.9¢, -1.5 pts)
James lost 1.5 points on Kalshi, the largest move on either Governor board, and 6.4¢ prices him at roughly a 6% probability.
Benson hammered him over tariffs and the Iran war in their two October debates, and the Kalshi board still lists Mike Duggan at 0.3%, a leftover contract for the independent who ended his campaign on May 21.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
Kalshi's Senate board is the deepest of its three Michigan markets, and its margin forecast has the Democrat up 4.5 points, a shade under the 5.3-point polling average.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 78¢ / NO 23¢)
El-Sayed is priced at 78¢, implying a 78% probability, a cent below his Polymarket price.
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race to Leans Democratic in September, and the Detroit News reports that more than $400 million has been spent on the contest.
Mike Rogers (YES 22¢ / NO 79¢)
Rogers sits at 22¢, a 22% implied probability, and he lost the 2024 Senate race by roughly 19,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast.
He has framed the final days around faith, family and freedom and says he is making inroads with Black voters in Detroit, Flint and Pontiac.
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Michigan Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two Michigan races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Democratic sweep is the clear favorite on both boards, a Benson win paired with a Rogers win is the realistic split-ticket path, and both outcomes involving a James win trail far behind. Polymarket labels each line by party and Kalshi names the candidates, but the four pairings are the same.
Kalshi's combo board has traded $120,855 in volume, and all four of its lines quote both a YES and a NO price.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 78¢ | NO 23¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 19¢ | NO 82¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 6¢ | NO 95¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 77¢ | NO 24¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 20¢ | NO 81¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 6¢ | NO 95¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Benson sits at YES 94¢ on Polymarket and YES 93.9¢ on Kalshi, while El-Sayed is at YES 79¢ and YES 78¢, respectively.
The underdogs show almost no daylight either. James trades at YES 7¢ on Polymarket and YES 6.4¢ on Kalshi, and Rogers is at YES 22¢ on both.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the forecasters. In the Michigan Governor election, Benson vs James polls average a 7.8-point Benson lead and the consensus rating is Lean D, yet neither board has her below YES 93.9¢, while El Sayed vs Rogers polls average 5.3 points and both Senate boards price him at YES 78¢ or better.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in contract design. Kalshi's Governor board still lists Duggan at 0.3% despite his May exit, its Senate board has traded more than $26.2 million, and its combo market names candidates where Polymarket's combo board uses party labels.
Michigan Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Senate board did the moving. El-Sayed gained 2 points on Polymarket and Rogers lost 2, while the Michigan Governor election barely budged, with James down less than a point on Polymarket and 1.5 points on Kalshi and Benson up 1.1 on Kalshi.
The headline of the final weekend was Stevens' Sunday endorsement of Rogers. She had been uninvited from a joint event with El-Sayed the same day, and her top aide quit over the decision. As of Monday morning, Polymarket still has El-Sayed at 79¢, up 2 points.
El Sayed vs Rogers polls have leaned his way over the past week. YouGov (51-47), Glengariff (51.4-45.1) and Mitchell (51-44) put him up 4 to 7 points and CNN had him up 7, while InsiderAdvantage's 47-46 result is the low end of the range.
Benson vs James polls are steadier. CNN and Michigan State/YouGov each had Benson up 12, Rasmussen up 10 and CBS up 5, and the lowest recent number, YouGov's 3-point result from early October, still has her ahead, which leaves James little to work with before Tuesday.
Trump rallied in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday and scheduled his Monday closing speech for Washington rather than a battleground stop, after an October 25 rally in Port Huron.
Turnout is the other variable. The Detroit News reported more than 2 million Michigan ballots cast by the final weekend, and the state's Voting Dashboard showed 22.8% turnout in Detroit as of Monday morning, with the city clerk projecting 40% to 45% overall. Michigan has no party registration, so those totals show participation rather than who is ahead.
The combo boards add one more read. A Benson and El-Sayed sweep at 78¢ on Polymarket and 77¢ on Kalshi sits a cent below El-Sayed's standalone price on each exchange, which treats a Democratic Senate win as arriving with a Benson win nearly every time.
Michigan polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time on Tuesday, and absentee ballots must arrive by 8 p.m. The first results after the polls close are the likeliest trigger for a repricing.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (7¢) | $1,428.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (93.9¢) | $106.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (6.4¢) | $1,562.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (79¢) | $126.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (22¢) | $454.55 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (78¢) | $128.21 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (22¢) | $454.55 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Democratic-leaning races priced with different levels of risk: a Michigan Governor race where Benson trades near 94¢ on both exchanges and the polls point the same way, and a Michigan Senate race where El-Sayed holds a 78¢ to 79¢ price despite a high-profile Democratic endorsement of Rogers and polls that range from a 1-point race to a 7-point lead.
The combo boards tell the same story, with a Benson and El-Sayed sweep at 77¢ to 78¢ and a Benson and Rogers split ticket as the main alternative. Election Day turnout and the first results after the polls close are the last things left to move the board.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Michigan Governor race odds?
Jocelyn Benson is trading at 94¢ on Polymarket and 93.9¢ on Kalshi, while John James sits at 7¢ on Polymarket and 6.4¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed is the favorite at 79¢ on Polymarket and 78¢ on Kalshi, with Mike Rogers priced at 22¢ on both exchanges.
What do the latest Benson vs James polls show?
Every recent survey has Benson ahead. CNN and Michigan State/YouGov each had her up 12 points, Rasmussen Reports had her up 10 from October 28 to 29, and CBS News had her up 5 from October 26 to 27. The RealClearPolitics average is 51.1% to 43.3%.
What do the latest El Sayed vs Rogers polls show?
Mitchell Research has El-Sayed ahead 51% to 44%, Glengariff has him up 51.4% to 45.1%, YouGov has him up 51% to 47%, and InsiderAdvantage had a 47% to 46% race. The RealClearPolitics average is 50.1% to 44.8%.
How do Benson vs James polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling and the ratings suggest, with both exchanges keeping Benson at 93.9¢ or higher even though her average lead is 7.8 points and the consensus rating is Lean D.
Are El Sayed vs Rogers polls moving before Election Day?
The newest surveys mostly favor El-Sayed. Mitchell's lead grew from 4.2 points on October 1 to 7 points in late October and the RealClearPolitics average stands at 5.3 points, while InsiderAdvantage showed a 1-point race.
How did Haley Stevens' endorsement of Mike Rogers affect the Michigan Senate race odds?
Stevens, who lost the August Democratic primary to El-Sayed, endorsed Rogers on Sunday, November 1. As of Monday morning, El-Sayed is priced at 79¢ on Polymarket, up 2 points, and at 78¢ on Kalshi.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Michigan Governor election slightly differently?
The boards are within a cent on every favorite and match at 22¢ for Rogers. Small gaps like Benson at 94¢ versus 93.9¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Michigan Governor-Senate combo bets show?
A Benson and El-Sayed sweep trades at 78¢ on Polymarket and 77¢ on Kalshi, a Benson and Rogers split at 19¢ and 20¢, a James and Rogers sweep at 6¢ on both, and a James and El-Sayed split at 2¢ on both.
How do I trade the Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the result is final.
