Dancing with the Stars heads to Disney Night on Monday, Nov. 2, a one-time schedule change because Tuesday is election coverage. Eight couples remain after last week's double elimination, and scores are not in yet, so both elimination markets are pricing last week's results and this week's dance assignments. Julia Stiles and Tatyana Ali sit at the top of both boards, though Kalshi and Polymarket disagree sharply on how likely each is to go home.
Who's Already Left the Ballroom: Season 35 Elimination Recap
- Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman (premiere, Sept. 15)
- Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills (premiere, Sept. 16)
- Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten (Week 2)
- Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart (Week 3)
- Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong (Week 4)
- Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson (Week 5)
- Week 6 Dedication Night: no elimination
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (Week 7, double elimination)
- Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess (Week 7, double elimination)
Cynthia Erivo joins Carrie Ann Inaba, Bruno Tonioli and Derek Hough as guest judge for Disney Night, and the team dance round returns. Live viewer votes are combined with the judges' scores to decide who lands in jeopardy.
DWTS Week 8 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and each price doubles as the market's implied probability. A "Yes" contract pays $1 if that celebrity is eliminated on the Week 8 results show, which Kalshi lists as Episode 9 because the premiere ran two nights. The market has $205,220 in total volume and includes a "None" contract for a night with no elimination.
Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (56%, Yes 58¢ / No 45¢, +11 pts)
Stiles is now the favorite to go home after an 11-point jump. Her 26/40 for an Argentine tango last week tied for the lowest score of the night, and the judges felt she held back. She takes on a paso doble to "Satisfied" from Hamilton.
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (35%, Yes 35¢ / No 66¢, +1 pt)
Ali and Ravnik scored 28/40 last week, one of the three lowest marks of the night. They draw a contemporary to "Easy as Life" from Aida, and the 35¢ price makes them the clear second choice on the board. Stiles and Ali together account for 91% of the market.
Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (11%, Yes 12¢ / No 89¢, -4 pts)
Wood lost 4 points after a 37/40 contemporary inspired by Annabelle: Creation that tied for second-best on Horror Movie Night. He gets a waltz to "I See the Light" from Tangled.
- Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (10%, -1 pt): A 37/40 last week and a 74/80 combined total tie her for second on the leaderboard, and she draws a quickstep to "Be Our Guest" from Beauty and the Beast.
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (8%, unchanged): A 32/40 left her at 67/80 combined, and she takes on a jive to "You Can Fly!" from Peter Pan.
- Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (2%, unchanged): A 36/40 and 74/80 combined keep her safe, with a quickstep to "A Star Is Born" from Hercules.
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (2%, unchanged): The season's first perfect 40 gave them the top combined score at 76/80, and they now dance a jazz to "Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious" from Mary Poppins.
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (1%, -1 pt): A 35/40 and 72/80 combined, plus a samba to "Under the Sea" from The Little Mermaid, make him the safest couple on the board.
- None (<1%, Yes 1¢): Traders see almost no chance of a night without an elimination.
Here is what a $100 position on each elimination contract would return in profit if it settles "Yes," before any fees.
| Couple | Pick | Profit on $100 | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Julia Stiles | Eliminated Yes (58¢) | $72.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Eliminated Yes (35¢) | $185.71 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Eliminated Yes (12¢) | $733.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Jenna Dewan | Eliminated Yes (10¢) | $900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Maura Higgins | Eliminated Yes (9¢) | $1,011.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Amber Glenn | Eliminated Yes (3¢) | $3,233.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Harry Shum Jr. | Eliminated Yes (3¢) | $3,233.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Ezra Frech | Eliminated Yes (2¢) | $4,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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DWTS Week 8 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket uses the same 1¢ to 99¢ structure, and each "Yes" share pays $1 if that celebrity is eliminated in Week 8. The board is thin, with roughly $8,300 traded across the eight contracts, so headline percentages and buy prices can sit well apart.
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (21%, Yes 36¢ / No 95¢, -9 pts)
Polymarket is far less convinced than Kalshi, with Ali down 9 points to 21% after her 28/40 last week. The 36¢ Yes price sits well above the headline percentage, which points to a thin book. Her contract has traded $1,862.
Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (no headline %, Yes 93¢ / No 62¢, -8 pts)
Polymarket shows no headline percentage for Stiles, and her 93¢ Yes and 62¢ No quotes add up to far more than $1, a sign of a one-sided order book. Hers is the busiest contract on the board at $2,525, yet it fell 8 points while Kalshi pushed her up 11. This price is best treated as unreliable until the book tightens.
Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (10%, Yes 12¢ / No 93¢, -2 pts)
Dewan slipped 2 points to 10%, matching Kalshi's number. Her 37/40 Argentine tango to "Uninvited" last week put her at 74/80 combined. This week she and Chmerkovskiy draw a quickstep to "Be Our Guest" from Beauty and the Beast.
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (10%, Yes 15¢, unchanged): His contract shows $0 in volume, so the price is an untraded quote, and he follows a 37/40 with a waltz to "I See the Light."
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (8%, Yes 10¢, +2 pts): A 32/40 last week and a jive to "You Can Fly!" come with $2,032 in volume.
- Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (3%, Yes 4.7¢, unchanged): A 36/40 and 74/80 combined keep her near the bottom of the board.
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (2%, Yes 3.6¢, unchanged): The perfect 40 and 76/80 combined total lead the leaderboard.
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (1%, Yes 2.1¢, unchanged): A 35/40 and 72/80 combined make him the safest contract on the board.
Here is what a $100 position on each elimination contract would return in profit if it settles "Yes," before any fees.
| Couple | Pick | Profit on $100 | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Julia Stiles | Eliminated Yes (93¢) | $7.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Eliminated Yes (36¢) | $177.78 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Eliminated Yes (15¢) | $566.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Jenna Dewan | Eliminated Yes (12¢) | $733.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Maura Higgins | Eliminated Yes (10¢) | $900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Amber Glenn | Eliminated Yes (4.7¢) | $2,027.66 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Harry Shum Jr. | Eliminated Yes (3.6¢) | $2,677.78 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Ezra Frech | Eliminated Yes (2.1¢) | $4,661.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on DWTS Week 8
The exchanges agree on the shape of the board. Frech is at 1% and Shum Jr. at 2% on both, and Dewan (10%) and Higgins (8%) match exactly.
The disagreement is at the top. Kalshi has Ali at 35% and Polymarket has her at 21%, a 14-point gap, and the two exchanges moved Stiles in opposite directions, +11 on Kalshi and -8 on Polymarket.
Liquidity explains most of it. Kalshi's $205,220 is roughly 25 times what Polymarket's contracts have traded, so its prices are the sturdier read. Polymarket's zero-volume Wood quote and Stiles's mismatched Yes and No prices look like noise on a thin board. Kalshi's "None" contract has no Polymarket counterpart, so it is not a gap.
DWTS Week 8 Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
The biggest swing on either board is Stiles on Kalshi. Her 26/40 tied for the lowest score of the night, and an 11-point jump made her the favorite to go home.
The favorite and second choice on Kalshi account for 91% of the market, so traders are treating this as close to a two-couple race. Shum Jr., Glenn and Frech are priced at 3% or less, which matches their spots at 76/80, 74/80 and 72/80 on the combined leaderboard.
Disney Night scores have not posted, and a viewer vote is part of the result, so this board can still shift. A strong paso doble from Stiles or a weak contemporary from Ali could swap the top two.
How to Trade DWTS Week 8 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION55when signing up to Trade $25, Get $55!
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTIONwhen signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
