The Mississippi Senate race 2026 is still uncalled on Friday, with Democrat Scott Colom's lead holding above 1,800 votes and both exchanges pricing him at roughly 98¢.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls are a distant memory after the midterm results, and the fight has shifted to thousands of affidavit ballots and a legal battle that both parties are already preparing for.
Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith now sits at 3¢ on Polymarket and 2.5¢ on Kalshi, even as her campaign insists the votes still to come will carry her to victory.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms as the count enters a fourth day.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Scott Colom | YES (98¢) | $101.89 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (3¢) | $3,122.70 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (97.9¢) | $101.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (2.5¢) | $3,744.40 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Mississippi contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, so each price reads as a probability, and a winning "Yes" share pays $1.00 while a losing one pays $0.
The market resolves on the winner of the Mississippi Senate election, and because there is no runoff, a plurality is enough to take the seat.
Scott Colom (YES 98¢ / NO 3¢, +1 pt)
Colom is at 98¢ on Polymarket, a 98% implied probability, up a point from Thursday and 14 points above Wednesday's 84¢.
Polymarket's tracker, which has followed the Decision Desk HQ tally, shows him ahead 467,233 to 465,146 (49.1% to 48.8%) with 95% counted, a margin of about 2,100 votes.
A $100 Yes ticket at a 98¢ average price shows $101.89 to win, so the trade is a bet that nothing in the affidavit pile erases a lead of around two thousand votes.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 3¢ / NO 98¢, -1 pt)
Hyde-Smith is down to 3¢, a 3% implied chance, and a $100 Yes ticket at a 3¢ average price shows $3,122.70 to win.
Her case rests on the ballots still to come. She posted on X that thousands of votes remain from dozens of Republican counties, and Mississippi GOP chair Mike Hurst has said the outstanding affidavit ballots sit in Republican-leaning areas, though he did not provide evidence.
Early affidavit returns have not helped her. In Lafayette County, a small sample of 207 affidavit ballots broke for Colom 69% to 29%, far beyond his 49% to 48% margin in the county overall.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's Mississippi board is a regulated event contract with Yes and No both tradable on each candidate, and it resolves by winning party.
The market has now traded more than $33 million, up from about $20.3 million on Wednesday, and its feed shows 95.7% of the vote counted with Colom at 466,775 (49.0%) and Hyde-Smith at 464,962 (48.9%).
Scott Colom (YES 97.9¢ / NO 2.4¢, +1 pt)
Kalshi has Colom at 97.9¢, and its Chance reading of 97.6% is up a point on the day.
A $100 stake shows a max payout of $101.99, 10¢ more than Polymarket's $101.89 for the same stake.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (YES 2.5¢ / NO 97.6¢, -1 pt)
Hyde-Smith is 2.5¢ on Kalshi with a 2.4% Chance reading, half a cent cheaper than Polymarket's 3¢ quote.
A $100 stake shows a max payout of $3,744.40, about $620 more than Polymarket's $3,122.70, which makes the longshot the one contract where the two exchanges are meaningfully apart.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Mississippi Senate Race 2026
Both exchanges agree on the favorite. Colom is YES 98¢ on Polymarket and YES 97.9¢ on Kalshi, while Hyde-Smith is YES 3¢ and YES 2.5¢, respectively.
The longshot is where they diverge. Kalshi's YES 2.5¢ on Hyde-Smith is roughly 17% cheaper than Polymarket's YES 3¢, and a cent or two of difference at these prices swings the payout by hundreds of dollars on a $100 stake.
The No side shows the same pattern. Kalshi's NO 2.4¢ on Colom undercuts Polymarket's NO 3¢, and its NO 97.6¢ on Hyde-Smith undercuts Polymarket's NO 98¢, since Polymarket's quotes add up to 101¢ while Kalshi's add up to roughly 100.1¢ to 100.3¢.
The vote feeds still differ, with Polymarket's tracker showing about 2,100 votes of cushion and Kalshi's showing 1,813, but neither price reacts to the gap. There is no combo board on either exchange for this race.
Colom vs Hyde-Smith Polls and Midterm Results Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The board is no longer trading on Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls. The midterm results have been rolling in since Tuesday night, and the price now reflects the count and the legal calendar, which is why movement slowed to a single point on both exchanges after the earlier surge.
Both parties are positioning for a fight. The NRSC and Hyde-Smith's campaign sent a letter to election officials in all 82 counties demanding that affidavit ballots be separated and preserved, Colom's campaign called it a "desperate stunt," and Elias Law Group sent its own letter arguing the demand violates state law.
The affidavit pile is the swing factor. The Colom campaign has estimated 10,000 to 15,000 affidavit ballots, with unconfirmed reports of up to 18,000, and about 2,100 remain in DeSoto County alone, where Colom led 52% to 46%.
The calendar is tight. Voters without ID have until November 10 to show it for their affidavit ballots to count, Harrison County will not begin counting its affidavit ballots until that day, and about 3,600 mail-in ballots can still arrive if postmarked by Election Day. Hinds County has 10 business days to certify but aims to finish its affidavit count within five.
Any dispute would be settled in court. Mississippi has no automatic recount provision and no method for a candidate to request one.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Scott Colom | YES (98¢) | $101.89 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (3¢) | $3,122.70 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Scott Colom | YES (97.9¢) | $101.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | YES (2.5¢) | $3,744.40 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Mississippi Senate Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls pointed to a Republican hold, but both exchanges now price Colom at roughly 98¢, which makes the Mississippi Senate race 2026 less a question of who is ahead and more a question of whether the affidavit review or a court fight can erase a lead of 1,800 to 2,100 votes.
The November 10 ID deadline, the remaining mail-in ballots, county certifications and any litigation are the next catalysts for the board, and a Colom win in the final midterm results would end a 44-year drought for Democrats in Mississippi Senate races.
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 FAQs
What are the current Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Scott Colom is trading at 98¢ on Polymarket and 97.9¢ on Kalshi, while Cindy Hyde-Smith sits at 3¢ on Polymarket and 2.5¢ on Kalshi.
Has the Mississippi Senate race 2026 been called?
No. As of Friday, November 6, no winner had been declared, with Colom ahead by 1,813 votes on Kalshi's feed and by about 2,100 votes on Polymarket's tracker.
What did the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls show before Election Day?
The polls had Hyde-Smith ahead by three to four points, including a 52-48 Wedgewood Polls survey and a 43-40 Change Research poll for the Democratic-aligned 365 Project, and the major raters called the race Likely Republican.
How do the midterm results compare with the Colom vs Hyde-Smith polls?
The midterm results are far ahead of the polling for Colom, who trailed in every public survey but now leads the count by roughly 1,800 to 2,100 votes, which is why Hyde-Smith's YES price has fallen from 17¢ on Wednesday to 3¢.
What is the NRSC demanding in the Mississippi Senate race?
The National Republican Senatorial Committee and Hyde-Smith's campaign sent a letter to election officials in all 82 counties demanding that affidavit ballots be separated and preserved, a step toward possible litigation. Colom's campaign called the move a desperate stunt and sent its own letter saying the demand violates state law.
When are the remaining Mississippi ballots due?
Voters who cast an affidavit ballot because they lacked photo ID have until November 10 to show ID at their circuit clerk's office, and mail-in absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive within five business days. About 3,600 mail-in ballots were still outstanding.
Is there a recount in the Mississippi Senate race?
Mississippi has no automatic recount and no method for a candidate to request one, so any challenge would have to go through the courts. There is also no runoff, because the top vote-getter wins.
How do I trade the Mississippi Senate race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the race is called.
