The South Carolina Senate race 2026 and the SC Governor race both have Republicans as heavy favorites on Polymarket and Kalshi, even as the Senate polling has been far tighter than the prices suggest.
- Darline Graham, Annie Andrews, Alan Wilson and Jermaine Johnson all have live South Carolina Senate and Governor contracts on both exchanges, with Graham priced at 82¢ on each.
- Graham vs Andrews polls run from a one-point Graham edge to a four-point lead, while Johnson vs Wilson polls show Wilson up 8 to 10 points on the standard ballot.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current South Carolina Senate race 2026 and SC Governor race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (19¢) | $526.32 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (19¢) | $526.32 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (95¢) | $105.26 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (7¢) | $1428.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (93.6¢) | $106.84 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6.9¢) | $1449.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's South Carolina contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race market and the Governor market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Polymarket prices Graham as a better-than-4-to-1 favorite, and the gap between that number and the October polling is the central story in this race.
Darline Graham (YES 82¢ / NO 19¢)
Graham's price shows no change on the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board, even as the Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend $5 million to defend the seat and Trump has rallied for her.
She was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother, Lindsey Graham, and she beat Rep. Ralph Norman in the Republican runoff with Trump's endorsement.
Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, and Sabato's Crystal Ball also rates it Likely Republican.
Annie Andrews (YES 19¢ / NO 82¢, -1 pt)
Andrews slipped 1 point, though 19¢ is still a notable price in a state Trump carried by 18 points in 2024.
The Graham vs Andrews polls are the reason traders haven't written her off: Rasmussen's October 5-8 survey had Graham ahead 49-45, InsiderAdvantage found a 46-45 race and Trafalgar showed 43.4% to 42.3%.
Andrews, a pediatrician, is trying to become the first Democrat South Carolina has sent to the Senate since Fritz Hollings left office in 2005.
SC Governor Race 2026
The Governor board is far more lopsided, with Polymarket treating Alan Wilson as a near lock to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster.
Alan Wilson (YES 95¢ / NO 7¢, +1 pt)
Wilson gained 1 point, and the attorney general has the structural edge in a state that hasn't had a Democratic governor in more than 20 years.
He won the June 23 Republican runoff with roughly 68% of the vote over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, after Trump offered a co-endorsement to both candidates.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 7¢ / NO 95¢)
Johnson slipped less than a point, and the Johnson vs Wilson polls are the reason a 7¢ price isn't a zero.
Wilson led by 8 points in a July Public Policy Polling survey, and a Hart Research poll for the Johnson campaign in mid-August had it 50-42, narrowing to 48-46 after voters read candidate biographies.
Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race market has already topped $4.58 million in volume, against about $62,000 on the Governor board.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket on both Senate candidates to the cent, and its own margin forecast has the Republican up 4.6 points.
Darline Graham (YES 82¢ / NO 19¢, +1 pt)
Graham gained 1 point on the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board, the one board where her price ticked up, and a 4.6-point forecast sits closer to Rasmussen's four-point lead than to the one-point polls.
Trafalgar's sample was 59.1% Republican, a reminder that even the tightest Graham vs Andrews polls were built on a heavily Republican electorate.
Annie Andrews (YES 19¢ / NO 82¢, -1 pt)
Andrews dropped 1 point on Kalshi, mirroring the move on Polymarket.
Her case rests on the late-September surveys, including an InsiderAdvantage poll with her trailing 46-45, and on Trafalgar's finding that every age group under 50 broke her way.
She also used the October 11 debate in Columbia, which included Libertarian Kasie Whitener, to question Graham's qualifications.
SC Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Governor board sits within two cents of Polymarket on the favorite, and its margin forecast has the Republican up 10.5 points.
Alan Wilson (YES 93.6¢ / NO 6.5¢, -0.1 pts)
Wilson dipped 0.1 points on Kalshi, and 93.6¢ is the softer of his two prices, 1.4¢ below Polymarket's 95¢.
A 10.5-point forecast lines up with a Resonance Media poll showing Wilson ahead by 10, and his lead was already 8 points in both the July Public Policy Polling survey and the mid-August Hart Research poll.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 6.9¢ / NO 94¢, +0.1 pts)
Johnson gained 0.1 points, and the board shows a small quirk: a Wilson NO at 6.5¢ is cheaper than a Johnson YES at 6.9¢, even though a Johnson win is the main way that Wilson NO pays.
That gap is structural, since NO on the favorite pays on any other outcome, including a third-party winner, while Johnson's YES pays only if he wins and trades on a thin order book.
His pitch centers on affordability, health care and education, and he is hoping to become the first Democratic governor in South Carolina in more than two decades.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Graham sits at YES 82¢ on both exchanges, while Wilson is at YES 95¢ on Polymarket and YES 93.6¢ on Kalshi.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Andrews trades at YES 19¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, and Johnson is at YES 7¢ and YES 6.9¢, respectively.
Neither the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board nor the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board has an edge, and the largest gap on the Governor race is 1.4¢, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Three of the four Graham vs Andrews polls cited here sit within two points, yet neither board has Graham below YES 82¢.
Johnson vs Wilson polls show a similar gap, with Wilson's standard-ballot lead running 8 to 10 points while both markets still price him at YES 93.6¢ or better.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is liquidity: the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board has more than $4.5 million traded, while its Governor board is far thinner at about $62,000.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The two exchanges moved almost in lockstep on the South Carolina Senate race 2026, with Andrews down 1 point on both, Graham flat on Polymarket and Graham up 1 on Kalshi, a sign that traders are discounting the polling tightness a little.
That caution has history behind it. South Carolina polling has overstated Democrats before, most notably in 2020, when surveys showed a close race between Lindsey Graham and Jaime Harrison and Graham won by 10 points.
The Republican side is not taking the polls lightly either: the Senate Leadership Fund is committing $5 million, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to campaign in the state.
The SC Governor race has moved far less. Wilson is up 1 point on Polymarket and down 0.1 on Kalshi, and Johnson has barely budged, with Wilson's runoff win and a 10-point Resonance Media lead keeping the favorite's price high.
Johnson vs Wilson polls from Public Policy Polling, Hart Research and Resonance Media form a consistent 8-to-10-point band on the standard ballot, which helps explain why neither exchange has Johnson above 7¢.
The next round of Graham vs Andrews polls and early voting turnout are the likeliest triggers for a repricing. Early voting runs October 19 through October 31, and Election Day is November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (19¢) | $526.32 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (19¢) | $526.32 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (95¢) | $105.26 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (7¢) | $1428.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (93.6¢) | $106.84 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (6.9¢) | $1449.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
SC Governor Race and South Carolina Senate Race 2026: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with very different levels of risk: a South Carolina Senate race 2026 where the polls sit within a few points but both exchanges still hold Graham at 82¢, and an SC Governor race where Wilson's 8-to-10-point leads are priced as a near certainty.
Watch the latest Graham vs Andrews polls and early voting turnout for the clearest read on whether that 82¢ holds before November 3.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race FAQs
What are the current South Carolina Senate race 2026 odds?
Darline Graham is trading at 82¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Annie Andrews sits at 19¢ on both exchanges.
What are the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race odds?
Polymarket has Graham at 82¢ and Andrews at 19¢, with Andrews down 1 point on the board.
What are the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race odds?
Kalshi prices Graham at 82¢ to win and Andrews at 19¢, with the board's margin forecast sitting at Republican +4.6.
What are the current SC Governor race odds?
Alan Wilson is trading at 95¢ on Polymarket and 93.6¢ on Kalshi, while Jermaine Johnson sits at 7¢ on Polymarket and 6.9¢ on Kalshi.
What do the latest Graham vs Andrews polls show?
The polls are close. Rasmussen's October 5-8 survey has Graham ahead 49-45, InsiderAdvantage shows a 46-45 race, and Trafalgar has Graham up 43.4% to 42.3%.
What do the latest Johnson vs Wilson polls show?
Wilson leads on the standard ballot. Public Policy Polling had him up 8 points in July, a Hart Research poll for the Johnson campaign had it 50-42 in August, and Resonance Media shows a 10-point Wilson lead.
How do Graham vs Andrews polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling suggests, with both exchanges keeping Graham at 82¢ even though three of the four polls cited here show a margin of two points or less.
How do Johnson vs Wilson polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets treat a Wilson win as close to certain, with Johnson at 7¢ or below, even though the standard-ballot polls show an 8-to-10-point race.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the SC Governor race slightly differently?
The boards are within 1.4¢ of each other. Small gaps like Wilson at 95¢ versus 93.6¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race, and Kalshi's Governor board has only about $62,000 in volume.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate race and SC Governor race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
