The South Carolina Senate race 2026 reaches its final weekend as a genuine contest, with Darline Graham at 73¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi after a New York Times/Siena survey found her tied with Annie Andrews at 48%.
- Graham, Andrews, Alan Wilson and Jermaine Johnson all have live contracts on both exchanges, and the two Senate boards match to the cent while the SC governor race shows Wilson near 93¢ on each.
- Graham vs Andrews polls now run from a 1-point Graham edge to a 48-48 tie, while Johnson vs Wilson polls show Wilson up 10.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current South Carolina Senate race 2026 and SC governor race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's where the money sits on both platforms with two days to go before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (9¢) | $1,111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (92.9¢) | $107.64 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (7.8¢) | $1,282.05 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's South Carolina contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race and the governor's market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. That is an approximation here, since Libertarian Kasie Whitener and the Constitution Party's Mark Hackett are also on the Senate ballot and a Green Party candidate appears in the governor's race.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Polymarket now tags the race Lean R, a more competitive label than the Likely R tag it carried earlier this week.
Darline Graham (YES 73¢ / NO 28¢)
The price follows a week of Graham vs Andrews polls that treated the seat as a coin flip. The Times/Siena survey released Wednesday had Graham and Andrews level at 48%, and 51% of voters in it said Graham lacks the experience to be an effective senator.
Her cushion is name recognition. She is the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's sister, was appointed after his death in July and has Trump's backing, which was on display Thursday when he held his second South Carolina rally of the month in Rock Hill.
Annie Andrews (YES 28¢ / NO 73¢)
Andrews is a physician who has run as a moderate, and the Siena numbers show why traders are paying attention: she had 57% of independents and drew 7% of Republicans. Voters in that poll also said she would handle the economy and cost of living better.
Turnout adds to the uncertainty. According to the state election commission, 363,566 South Carolinians voted in the first four days of early voting, up 110% from the same stretch in 2022.
SC Governor Race 2026
The governor's board is far less competitive, and Polymarket tags the race Safe R.
Alan Wilson (YES 93¢ / NO 9¢, +2 pts)
Wilson is the Republican nominee and the state attorney general, and he appeared alongside Graham in Rock Hill on Thursday. His lead in the South Carolina Policy Council survey of Oct. 16-25 was 51% to 41%.
He is running to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster, and no Democrat has won a South Carolina governor's race since 1998.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 9¢ / NO 93¢, -1 pts)
Johnson, a state representative, trades at 9¢, roughly a 1-in-11 shot. The Johnson vs Wilson polls haven't given him much to work with, since Wilson also led by 8 points in a July Public Policy Polling survey.
His path runs through the same independent and crossover voters that are lifting Andrews, but he has not shown similar numbers in public polling.
Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race and SC Governor Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a derived number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and the Kalshi South Carolina Senate race has already traded $7.84 million in volume.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026
Kalshi's margin forecast for the South Carolina Senate race 2026 is Republican +3.4, down from +3.8 earlier this week.
Darline Graham (YES 73¢ / NO 28¢)
Kalshi displays Graham at a 72% chance, and the chart shows a steep slide at the right edge of the line after most of the cycle spent in the 80s.
The Senate Leadership Fund has planned $5 million for South Carolina on her behalf, and Republican speakers in Rock Hill pressed voters to unite behind her amid a grassroots write-in effort for Ralph Norman in the Upstate.
Annie Andrews (YES 28¢ / NO 73¢)
Andrews is priced at 28¢, the same as on Polymarket. The South Carolina Policy Council poll had her one point back at 46% to 47%, and a poll commissioned by a super PAC backing her put her ahead 45-44.
Former governors David Beasley, a Republican, and Jim Hodges, a Democrat, endorsed her on Monday, Oct. 26, which gives her a bipartisan talking point in the final days.
SC Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's governor forecast is Republican +11.7, and its board shows both candidates moving about 2 points.
Alan Wilson (YES 92.9¢ / NO 7.6¢, +2.1 pts)
Kalshi shows Wilson with a 92.2% chance, up 2.1 points, and his Yes price of 92.9¢ lands within a tenth of a cent of Polymarket's 93¢.
The 11.7-point forecast is a touch wider than the 10-point lead in the Policy Council survey, which fits a market that weighs the state's partisan lean heavily.
Jermaine Johnson (YES 7.8¢ / NO 93¢, -2.1 pts)
Johnson is down 2.1 points to a 7.8% chance, and Kalshi prices him 1.2¢ below Polymarket's 9¢, the only gap between the exchanges larger than a tenth of a cent in this piece.
Polymarket is the friendlier platform for the Democratic underdog here, and the difference probably reflects different trader bases rather than new information.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race
The boards for the South Carolina Senate race 2026 are identical. Graham is at YES 73¢ and Andrews is at YES 28¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
The governor boards are a hair apart. Wilson trades at YES 93¢ on Polymarket and YES 92.9¢ on Kalshi, while Johnson is at YES 9¢ and YES 7.8¢, respectively.
That makes the SC governor race the only place where the exchanges disagree at all, and a 1.2¢ gap on a long shot is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The more interesting gap is between the exchanges and the surveys. A 48-48 tie in the Siena poll and a 47-46 Graham lead in the Policy Council poll are being priced as roughly a 3-in-4 Republican hold, at YES 73¢ on both boards.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in what they publish. Kalshi shows margin forecasts of Republican +3.4 in the Senate race and +11.7 in the governor's race, while Polymarket tags the races Lean R and Safe R.
Graham vs Andrews Polls and Johnson vs Wilson Polls: What Is Moving the Boards
The polling picture shifted in the last week. Graham led 46-45 in a late-September Insider Advantage survey, and by one point in the Policy Council poll that ended Oct. 25, but the Siena result moved the conversation from a close Republican hold to a level race.
Not every pollster agrees on the size of the move, and sponsorship matters. The 45-44 Andrews lead came from a survey paid for by a pro-Andrews super PAC, so the Siena and Policy Council numbers carry more weight in how traders read the Graham vs Andrews polls and the race overall.
Republican consolidation is the counterweight. Trump's Thursday stop in Rock Hill followed his Oct. 21 rally in Pendleton, and speakers there warned that any vote for someone other than Graham could flip the seat and affect control of the Senate.
Early voting ended Saturday, and it ran far ahead of 2022. With 363,566 ballots cast in the first four days alone, both campaigns can argue the surge helps them, and neither side can be sure who benefits.
The governor's race is quieter. Wilson's 51-41 lead is the latest of the Johnson vs Wilson polls, and the boards show Wilson up 2 points on Polymarket and 2.1 on Kalshi.
The final repricing triggers are Election Day itself and the first results. South Carolina polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and the size of any write-in vote for Norman is a variable Republican speakers have flagged.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (73¢) | $136.99 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| South Carolina Senate Race | Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (28¢) | $357.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Alan Wilson | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Polymarket | Jermaine Johnson | YES (9¢) | $1,111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Alan Wilson | YES (92.9¢) | $107.64 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| SC Governor Race | Kalshi | Jermaine Johnson | YES (7.8¢) | $1,282.05 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race: Final Thoughts
This is one race where the surveys and the exchanges point in different directions and one where they agree: a Senate contest with Graham at 73¢ on both boards despite a 48-48 Siena tie, and a governor's race where Wilson sits near 93¢.
Watch the Polymarket South Carolina Senate race and Kalshi South Carolina Senate race boards on Tuesday night, because a Graham price that drops under 70¢ would show traders finally trusting the polls over the state's partisan lean.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race FAQs
What are the current South Carolina Senate Race 2026 odds?
Darline Graham is trading at 73¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Annie Andrews sits at 28¢ on both exchanges.
Who is favored in the SC Governor Race?
Alan Wilson is the heavy favorite at 93¢ on Polymarket and 92.9¢ on Kalshi, with Jermaine Johnson priced at 9¢ and 7.8¢, respectively.
What do the latest Graham vs Andrews polls show?
The race is level in the newest major survey. A New York Times/Siena poll had Graham and Andrews tied at 48%, and the South Carolina Policy Council poll of Oct. 16-25 had Graham ahead 47-46.
What do the latest Johnson vs Wilson polls show?
Wilson leads 51-41 in the South Carolina Policy Council poll conducted Oct. 16-25, and he led by 8 points in a July Public Policy Polling survey.
What are the Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race odds?
The Polymarket South Carolina Senate race board has Graham at 73¢ and Andrews at 28¢, and tags the race Lean R.
What are the Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race odds?
The Kalshi South Carolina Senate race board has Graham at 73¢ YES and 28¢ NO, Andrews at 28¢ YES and 73¢ NO, and a margin forecast of Republican +3.4.
What is the Ralph Norman write-in effort in the South Carolina Senate race?
Norman lost the August Republican runoff to Graham, and a grassroots write-in effort for him has gained traction in York County and the Upstate. Speakers at Thursday's Trump rally in Rock Hill urged Republicans to stay with Graham.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the SC Governor Race slightly differently?
The boards are within about a cent of each other. Small gaps like Johnson at 9¢ versus 7.8¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
When is Election Day in South Carolina?
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, and polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Early voting ended Saturday, Oct. 31.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate Race 2026 and SC Governor Race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
