The latest Texas Senate race 2026 polls have Democrat James Talarico ahead by 2 to 6 points, and both Polymarket and Kalshi price him at 70¢ against Republican Ken Paxton at 31¢ on Polymarket and 30¢ on Kalshi.
Texas early voting wrapped up Friday with turnout already past the entire 2022 early-vote total, and the Polymarket Texas Senate and Texas Senate Kalshi boards each moved a point toward Talarico.
Here is where the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket and Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi money sits before polls close on Tuesday, November 3, along with what the newest Talarico vs Paxton polls say.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Texas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (70¢) | $139.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (31¢) | $307.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (70¢) | $139.91 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (30¢) | $317.73 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Texas Senate Odds: Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket Top Trading Contracts
Every Polymarket contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢, so the price doubles as an implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if that candidate wins the Senate seat and nothing if not.
The market resolves on the winner of the November 3 general election, and traders can sell a position back before then.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their opponent's quoted Yes price. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot, so those No prices are approximations rather than exact quotes.
James Talarico (YES 70¢ / NO 31¢, +1 pts)
Talarico gained 1 point on the Polymarket Texas Senate board, and the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market now carries a 70% implied probability, better than 2-to-1, with the board tagging the race Lean D.
The newest Texas Senate polls back a lead, though not one this wide. A CNN/SSRS survey of 923 likely voters conducted October 20 to 27 had him up 49-43, a Texas Southern University poll of 2,000 likely voters had him up 49-47, and the RealClearPolling average for October 8 to 27 sits at 48.6% to 46.5%.
Independents are doing much of the work in the Texas Southern survey, where he leads Paxton 54% to 38% in that group. Rice University's Mark Jones, who co-directed the poll, called Talarico the favorite.
Ken Paxton (YES 31¢ / NO 70¢, -1 pts)
Paxton slipped 1 point, but a 31¢ price still means traders see roughly a one-in-three chance, and the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket board has not written him off.
In the Talarico vs Paxton polls, his path runs through a unified Republican vote. Texas Southern found 88% of Republicans backing Paxton and 8% crossing over to Talarico, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% statewide.
Political science professor Matthew Wilson said Paxton needs Republican voters to come home, while Talarico needs strong turnout from Black and Hispanic voters. Both campaigns have spent the closing days arguing the other candidate is unfit for office.
Texas Senate Kalshi Odds: Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the Texas race as a regulated event contract that resolves by winning party, and both Yes and No trade on every line, so the board shows the full spread on each candidate.
The Texas Senate Kalshi market has traded $57.1 million in volume, and the exchange's margin forecast has Democrats up 2.7 points on November 3.
James Talarico (YES 70¢ / NO 31¢, +1 pts)
Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi pricing matches Polymarket on Talarico's Yes side at 70¢, and the board shows the same 1-point gain.
The 2.7-point margin forecast sits closer to the Texas Senate race 2026 polls than the 70% price does, in line with the 2-point Texas Southern result and the 2.1-point RealClearPolling edge. His 70¢ Yes and 31¢ No add up to 101¢, the small spread that comes with two-sided quotes.
Turnout in large Democratic-leaning counties is a major part of the bullish case. Harris County had logged more than 953,000 early votes through Thursday, and Dallas County had roughly 558,000.
Ken Paxton (YES 30¢ / NO 71¢, -1 pts)
Paxton sits at 30¢ on Kalshi, a cent below Polymarket, and his 1-point drop matches the move on that board.
The race ranks among the costliest Senate contests on record, with outside groups spending hundreds of millions of dollars, and Trump has made multiple Texas stops on Paxton's behalf. Paxton's closing ad pits Talarico's Texas against his own version of the state, while Talarico's closing ad calls Paxton the most corrupt politician in Texas.
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How Polymarket Texas Senate and Texas Senate Kalshi Prices Compare
The two boards agree on the favorite and the direction. Talarico trades at YES 70¢ on both exchanges, and each moved 1 point in his favor.
The only gap is on Paxton, who sits at YES 31¢ on Polymarket and YES 30¢ on Kalshi. Kalshi's direct NO 71¢ on Paxton is also a cent above the NO 70¢ that Polymarket's derived pricing implies.
That cent shows up in the trade tickets. A $100 ticket on Paxton returns $317.73 on Kalshi and $307.00 on Polymarket, while Talarico returns $139.91 and $139.00, so the longshot side is where the two order books differ most.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the Texas Senate race 2026 polls. The RealClearPolling average gives Talarico a 2.1-point edge and Texas Southern shows 2, yet neither board prices him below YES 70¢.
Texas Senate Polls Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
Both exchanges moved a single point toward Talarico, a quiet shift for a race where the newest Texas Senate polls split between a 6-point CNN/SSRS lead and a 2-point Texas Southern result.
Turnout is the main variable. FOX 4 reported that about 5.9 million Texans voted in person through the first 11 days of early voting, topping the 5.1 million who voted during the entire 2022 early period. Newsweek said analysts expect total turnout near 10 million, up from 8.1 million in 2022.
Forecasters are more cautious than traders. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have both rated the race a Toss Up since August, while the exchanges price it as a 70-30 lean.
The next repricing trigger is Election Day turnout, particularly among Republican voters, along with any final round of Talarico vs Paxton polls before Tuesday.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (70¢) | $139.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (31¢) | $307.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (70¢) | $139.91 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (30¢) | $317.73 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Texas Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Texas Senate Race 2026 Polls and Odds: Final Thoughts
This is a race the polls call close and both exchanges call a clear Talarico lean, with Polymarket and Kalshi at 70¢ for Talarico and 31¢ and 30¢ for Paxton.
Election Day turnout, and whether Republican voters come home for Paxton, is the likeliest thing to close that gap before polls close on November 3.
Texas Senate Race 2026 Polls and Odds FAQs
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?
Democrat James Talarico is the favorite at 70¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Republican Ken Paxton is at 31¢ on Polymarket and 30¢ on Kalshi.
What do the latest Texas Senate polls show?
A CNN/SSRS poll conducted October 20 to 27 had Talarico ahead 49-43 and a Texas Southern University survey had him up 49-47, while the RealClearPolling average for October 8 to 27 shows him ahead 48.6% to 46.5%.
What do the latest Talarico vs Paxton polls show among independents?
The Texas Southern University poll has Talarico ahead of Paxton 54% to 38% among independents, with Democrats backing Talarico 99% to 1% and Republicans backing Paxton 88% to 8%.
What are the current Polymarket Texas Senate odds?
The Polymarket Texas Senate board has Talarico at 70¢ and Paxton at 31¢, up 1 point and down 1 point, respectively.
Where can I trade the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market?
You can trade the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market on Polymarket's Texas Senate election event page, or use the switchboard links in this article to jump straight to the order book.
What are the Texas Senate Kalshi odds for Talarico and Paxton?
The Texas Senate Kalshi market has Talarico at 70¢ and Paxton at 30¢, with a margin forecast of Democrats +2.7 and about $57.1 million in volume.
How does the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi market differ from Polymarket?
The Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi board prices Paxton a cent lower than Polymarket, 30¢ to 31¢, and it quotes Yes and No directly and shows a margin forecast, while Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's Yes price.
Why are the markets more confident than the Texas Senate race 2026 polls?
The Texas Senate polls show a race within a few points, but traders are weighing record early-vote turnout and Paxton's weak ratings, which is why both exchanges price Talarico near 70% even though the RealClearPolling average has him ahead by about 2 points.
How big has Texas early voting turnout been?
About 5.9 million Texans voted in person through the first 11 days of early voting, more than the 5.1 million who voted during the entire 2022 early period, and early voting ended Friday, October 30 ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.
How do I trade the Texas Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a Yes or No share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
