The Hunger Games returns to theaters November 20 with Sunrise on the Reaping, and Kalshi traders are already pricing where its Rotten Tomatoes score will land.
Full reviews are reportedly set to drop November 17, and the score to beat is The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, which finished at 64% on the Tomatometer.
Kalshi's board currently forecasts a 74% Tomatometer for Haymitch's origin story, with Above 72 at 64¢ and Above 75 at 44¢.
| 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Above 72 | YES (64¢) | $156.25 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 75 | YES (44¢) | $227.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 77 | YES (38¢) | $263.16 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Hunger Games Rotten Tomatoes score odds on Kalshi, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Kalshi promo code.
Right now, you can use the Kalshi promo code ACTION55 and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $55!
Hunger Games Rotten Tomatoes Score Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and each price maps directly to an implied probability. A YES contract pays $1.00 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, and traders can buy or sell positions any time before the market resolves.
On this board, every contract asks whether the film's Rotten Tomatoes score finishes above a set number, and Kalshi's listing has the market resolving November 23, three days after The Hunger Games opens wide.
Above 72 (YES 64¢ / NO 38¢, -3 pts)
The 72 line sets the floor of market expectations, and traders are leaning toward YES with the board reading a 62% chance.
That threshold sits eight points above the 64% that The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes posted, so the crowd clearly expects a better-reviewed film than the last prequel. The 3-point slide shows some traders tempering expectations after a wave of glowing first reactions.
Above 75 (YES 44¢ / NO 57¢, +1 pts)
This is the closest thing to a coin flip on the board, with YES at 44¢ and a 44% implied probability.
It lines up with Kalshi's 74% forecast, which sits just under the line. Clearing 75 would put Sunrise on the Reaping in rare territory for the franchise, since the Mockingjay films landed at 69% and 70% while Catching Fire reached 90%.
Above 77 (YES 38¢ / NO 63¢)
A 38% implied probability for 77 and above keeps a real ceiling case alive. Moving the line just two points from 75 costs only six cents of probability, which shows how crowded the market sees the mid-to-high 70s.
Traders buying YES here are betting that the early buzz survives a full critics' pool. NO holders are betting the score settles closer to the franchise's recent norm.
- Above 45 (YES 99¢ / NO 2¢): The market treats a Rotten score as a near impossibility, which makes this the safest line on the board and the thinnest payout.
Hunger Games Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
The bullish case starts with the October 28 London screenings, where attendees were allowed to post short reactions weeks ahead of release. The posts were overwhelmingly positive, praising Joseph Zada's performance as Haymitch and comparing the film's tone to Rogue One and Andor.
The market is not fully buying it. Social reactions come from people invited to an event, and critics' scores often settle below early hype as the review pool widens. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is the cautionary tale, finishing at 64% with critics while earning an 89% Popcornmeter from audiences.
The key moment arrives November 17, when the review embargo is reportedly set to lift at 9 a.m. ET. The first Tomatometer reading will rest on a small sample, so expect sharp early moves in the Above 72 and Above 75 contracts before the score stabilizes through opening weekend.
Box office tracking points to a huge opening, but ticket sales do not move the Tomatometer. Traders should focus on the critics' count and the fresh-to-rotten ratio as they climb.
How to Trade The Hunger Games on Kalshi
Ready to take a position? You can start trading Hunger Games event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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The Hunger Games: Final Thoughts
Kalshi has priced The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping as a solid critical win, but not a runaway one, with a 74% forecast that clears The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes by about ten points.
The market sits right on the 75 line. The first wave of Tomatometer data on November 17 will show whether the early buzz holds up.
The Hunger Games FAQs
What is the Kalshi market for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping?
It is a set of contracts on where the film's Rotten Tomatoes score finishes, with each contract asking whether the score lands above a specific number such as 72, 75 or 77. Kalshi's listing has the market resolving November 23.
What score does Kalshi forecast for Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping?
Kalshi's forecast currently reads 74% on the Tomatometer, with Above 72 at 64¢ and Above 75 at 44¢.
How did The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes score on Rotten Tomatoes?
The 2023 prequel holds a 64% Tomatometer from critics and an 89% Popcornmeter from audiences, making it the lowest-rated critic score in the franchise.
Is Sunrise on the Reaping tracking above The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes?
Based on Kalshi's board, yes. With the Above 72 contract at a 62% chance and a 74% forecast, traders expect the new film to beat the prequel's 64% by a wide margin, though the final score will not be known until reviews roll in.
When do Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping reviews come out?
The review embargo is reportedly set to lift November 17 at 9 a.m. ET, with the film opening in theaters November 20.
Who stars in The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping?
The cast includes Joseph Zada, Jesse Plemons, Ralph Fiennes, McKenna Grace, Glenn Close, Ben Wang, Whitney Peak, Kieran Culkin, Maya Hawke and Elle Fanning. Francis Lawrence directs.
What is the film about?
Sunrise on the Reaping is a prequel that takes place 24 years before the original Hunger Games, beginning on the morning of the reaping for the 50th Games and following a young Haymitch Abernathy.
How do I trade Hunger Games Rotten Tomatoes score contracts on Kalshi?
Pick the score threshold you want, then buy YES if you think the Tomatometer will finish above it or NO if you think it will finish at or below it. Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and every contract pays $1.00 if it is correct.
