It only seems fitting that in the same year as Kate Hudson's first Oscar nomination, Timothée Chalamet is doing a "How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days" tribute. The guy in this scenario, however, isn't Matthew McConaughey, it's the golden statue that has eluded the young actor for the last few years.
So, what's happened to Chalamet's Academy Award campaign, and how have his recent comments impacted the Kalshi odds for the Best Actor Oscar race? Let's take a look.
Why Timothée Chalamet's Best Actor Odds Are Falling
Since the nominations for the 98th Academy Awards were announced on January 22, 2026, the Best Actor Award appeared to be Chalamet's to lose. Despite top-tier performances from his fellow nominees like Michael B. Jordan and Leonardo DiCaprio, Chalamet's star turn in Marty Supreme was favored to take home the top prize.
Even before the nominations were announced, Chalamet commanded a 78% chance of winning on Kalshi, with DiCaprio in a distant second with 14%. But now, following a conversation with his Interstellar costar McConaughey, Chalamet's dig at two classical art forms has all but tanked his Oscar chances.
The conversation, hosted by Variety and CNN, was held in front of students at the University of Texas at Austin’s Moody College of Communication with the intention of highlighting Chalamet's meteoric rise to stardom. Instead, a clip of the sit-down may have torpedoed the Dune star's Oscar hopes in 2026.
When discussing the headwinds that some movies face in the era of streaming services, Chalamet voiced his concern for his preferred artistic medium, while dunking on others.
"I admire people… who go on a talk show and say, ‘Hey, we've got to keep movie theaters alive, we've gotta keep this genre alive,’” Chalamet explained to McConaughey. “And another part of me feels like if people want to see it, like Barbie, like Oppenheimer, they're going to go see it and go out of their way to be loud and proud about it.”
Timmy may have been taking shots for no reason, but now Kalshi users aren't giving him the best shot to win Best Actor at this year's Oscars.
Here are the latest probabilities from Kalshi:
Best Actor Oscar Odds on Kalshi: Trending Info & Historical Analysis
At the time of publication, Michael B. Jordan appears to be the favorite to take home his first Best Actor honors, sitting around 55 to 60%. Chalamet's odds have fallen to around 32%; however, it isn't solely about the opera/ballet remarks, but rather that Timmy's faux pas landed at the worst possible moment during an already unraveling campaign.
As mentioned above, Chalamet's implied probability on Kalshi soared to 78¢ in early February, following his Golden Globe and Critics' Choice wins, making him by far the most expensive lead-acting contract on the board.
But the Marty Supreme star's slide began before the opera controversy even began. A BAFTA loss to non-Oscar nominee Robert Aramayo was the first crack, softening his Kalshi price to 72¢. Then a direct loss to Michael B. Jordan at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) shattered his one-man-race status entirely.
It should also be noted that the last actor to win the Oscar after losing both the BAFTA and SAG was George Clooney for Syriana, 20 years ago. Will history repeat itself? Find out Sunday, March 15, 2026!
How to Get in on the Kalshi Oscars Action
Wondering how to get started with Kalshi? There are a few things you should know before diving into the fun.
On Kalshi, users can trade binary event contracts with other people rather than betting against the house.
Binary event contracts are purchased for between 1¢-99¢ and resolve to either "Yes" or "No", meaning it pays out either:
✅ $1.00 if the event happens
❌ $0.00 if the event does not happen
Here's a video for your reference that explains things in further detail:
If that all sounds good and you want to get in on the action, purchasing on all types of event contracts (including Best Supporting Actor and Best Animated Feature) you can sign up to Kalshi today with our exclusive promo code ACTION, and you'll be able to Trade $10, Get $10!
