Remember the scene in The Big Short where Christian Bale, playing hedge fund manager Michael Burry, sits alone in his office, headphones on, running numbers nobody else wants to see? Burry made his name predicting the housing market in 2008.
Now he's back with a new take.
He posted on X that the upcoming IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could raise more capital than 300 tech IPOs did during the dot-com boom of 2000.
Whether Burry is right or wrong, one thing is clear: 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most consequential years for public markets in recent memory.
On Kalshi, traders are already thinking which companies will officially announce an IPO before the year is out.
The Undisputed Frontrunner
If there’s a company traders are treating as an absolute lock to go public this year, it’s SpaceX. The Kalshi prediction market reflects near-total consensus, but the real story lies in how Elon Musk is reframing the narrative.
SpaceX officially filed its S-1 on May 20, targeting a historic Nasdaq debut as early as June 12, with a staggering valuation of up to $1.75 trillion.
But this isn't just a rocket company anymore.
Following a strategic merger with xAI, SpaceX has brilliantly remapped its identity, framing roughly 93% of its total addressable market (TAM) around Artificial Intelligence.
The AI Race and… a Sandwich
Right behind Musk’s corporate cosmos sits the rest of the AI vanguard, where the burning question isn't just about changing the world, but how much cash it takes to do it.
OpenAI leads this pack, having filed a confidential S-1 on May 22 for a heavily anticipated Q4 debut that flirts with a $1 trillion valuation.
OpenAI represents the ultimate Silicon Valley paradox: historic cultural impact paired with eye-watering burn rates, losing an estimated $1.22 for every dollar it brings in, with true profitability not projected until 2029 or 2030.
Anthropic is in a similar position. Bloomberg reported in March that the company is considering going public as early as October 2026, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley in discussions to lead the listing.
That IPO, if it materializes on that timeline, would follow a massive funding round that would serve as a bridge to public markets, essentially the last window for private investors to get in before a ticker goes live.
Meanwhile, traders are also fairly confident that Jersey Mike's, the sandwich chain, will make its stock market debut this year. The Blackstone-backed company filed confidentially with the SEC in April, with sources telling Bloomberg it's targeting a valuation above $12 billion and a possible debut as early as Q3 2026. It would easily rank as the largest IPO in the restaurant industry in terms of post-offering valuation.
The Wildcards
Lower on the confidence scale sits Kraken, the crypto exchange, and for good reason.
The company had a rough few months. It filed its S-1 confidentially with the SEC in November 2025, then paused its IPO plans in March when markets softened. By April, co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed at the Semafor World Economy Summit that the filing was still active, but no timeline had been set.
Discord, which filed confidentially in January targeting a March debut, also appears to have slipped its schedule, enough that traders give it a meaningful but not overwhelming chance of completing an offering this year.
Both companies illustrate a recurring theme in the 2026 IPO market: having the paperwork ready doesn't mean the window stays open.
So where does that leave us?
Burry warned that the dot-com bubble didn't announce itself; it just kept inflating until it didn't. The companies on Kalshi's board are some of the most recognized names in tech, AI, and everyday life.
Whether that's reassuring or the whole point of his warning is, perhaps, exactly the question the market will answer before the year is out.
