Patriots vs. Seahawks Odds & Betting Predictions - September 10, 2026

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Week 1 Postseason Teams Take Small Fav NFL Spread Record20-4-1, 83.3% Margin 5.64 Money Won +$1,456 ROI58.2% GradeB- #TSA

NoVig

VIP PLAY: Douglas averaged 1.8 receptions and 26 receiving yards per game last year despite only running a route on 35.7% of the team's dropbacks. That's the number that stands out to me. He was already productive with a limited role, and I think there's a legitimate path for his route share to increase significantly in 2026. The biggest reason is the way New England has reshaped its receiver room. Stefon Diggs is gone, and he essentially played ahead of Douglas last season. With Diggs taking a lot of those slot/Y snaps, Douglas didn't have much room to expand his usage. Now, the Patriots have brought in Romeo Doubs and A.J. Brown, two receivers who should primarily operate on the outside. That leaves Douglas as the natural slot option in three-receiver sets. Todd Downing, the Patriots WR coach, even hinted at this during the offseason: “Last year, I would say the ingredients we had in the room, there were a couple of guys that maybe played the same general role and spot, and maybe that’s a little bit different this year.” I have had that quote sitting in my back pocket all summer because I think it's pretty clearly referencing the Diggs/Douglas overlap. There is still some risk that New England goes with Brown/Doubs/Hollins as its primary three-receiver group, but everything coming out of training camp has pointed in the other direction. Douglas has consistently been reported as the primary slot receiver by beat writers, and he rested alongside the starters in the Patriots' final preseason game while Hollins played a quarter. That is pretty big information. Douglas' archetype also fits the type of role I'm expecting. He's capable of winning at all three levels from the slot, but he's at his best in the short and intermediate areas and is a clear compliment to what Brown and Doubs do well. He has good YAC ability, although his aDOT is relatively low. That makes these propsparticularly appealing. I'm not asking him to suddenly become a high-volume downfield receiver. If his route share increases and he's being used as the primary slot in three-WR sets, he should have plenty of opportunities to get there through underneath targets and YAC. I think the matchup against the Seahawks can also create some schematic advantages in his favor. Seattle has a tough defense, particularly against the run. If the Patriots struggle to consistently run the ball, I expect them to lean more heavily on the quick passing game, which is exactly where Douglas should make his biggest impact. Seattle is also 3.5 point home favorites in this game. If they are indeed playing from ahead, this could open up the doors for plenty of pass-heavy 3-receiver sets from the Patriots. Regardless, all signs from this offseason are indicating a bigger role for Douglas this season. If he goes from a 35.7% route share last season to around the 50% mark, 18.5 receiving yards and 2.5 receptions at this price is simply too low. @everyone

Profit boost

The NFL is back! We made it! We finally get to watch real, meaningful football … hopefully! I worry that it could be a slow start in Seattle to open the season. The last time we saw a real NFL game it was these same two teams, of course, but neither Sam Darnold nor Drake Maye took a single snap this preseason. We've seen in recent years how that can make the season opener something of a preseason game with key players shaking off the rest and finding their ways. Totals are often suppressed in Week 1 since defenses are a bit readier for the new season while offenses try to find their rhythm and settle back in. And besides, we mustn't forget what happened the last time these teams played. The Super Bowl saw just 12 points total until a 30-point fourth quarter explosion, and the Patriots offense in particular could do absolutely nothing for those first three quarters. The first eight New England drives outside of a halftime kneel down ended in punts. The first 38 Patriots plays resulted in 68 yards, under two yards a play including five three-and-outs. The Patriots' offensive line got completely worked in that game, and I wonder if we might see that action go both ways in the rematch. New England's line is still no match for Mike Macdonald's aggressive attack in the trenches, but Seattle's interior line could also struggle against the Patriots. Both defenses should have the advantage over both offenses. Maybe that changes late like it did in the Super Bowl, once the offenses shake off the rust and settle in, but this could be a slow, conservative start as both teams work to establish the run and settle into the new season. Week 1 unders with a total from 41-to-41.5 are 94-56-1 (63%) over the past couple decades. I'll play just the first-half angle and hope we get a more exciting finish than start to the game. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/patriots-vs-seahawks-picks-props-odds-predictions-nfl-week-1-sept-9

First NFL Best Bet of the season. I’ll be the first to tell you that this Patriots team was overrated all last season. We even bet against them for two units in the Super Bowl. However, I think we’re getting too much value with New England catching more than a field goal in this Super Bowl rematch. Seattle deserves to be favored at home, but I don’t believe the gap between these teams is as large as this number suggests. Our model has Seattle barely winning 23.27–22.61, which produces a fair spread of just Seahawks -0.66. At Patriots +3.5, we’re getting nearly a full field goal of value compared to our projection. Seattle’s defense is legitimately elite, especially against the run. It ranked first in rushing EPA allowed and was dominant across nearly every major run gap last season. That could force New England to rely heavily on Drake Maye, but I actually think that gives the Patriots their best chance offensively. Maye was excellent when pushing the ball downfield last season. New England ranked second in deep pass frequency and third in EPA on deep throws. Seattle’s defense was still strong in that area, but defending the deep ball was its only real relative weakness. The Patriots should also benefit if they stay primarily in 11 personnel. New England generated 0.25 EPA per play from that grouping last season, while Seattle was noticeably less dominant defending 11 personnel than heavier formations. That gives New England a clear blueprint: spread Seattle out, use the quick passing game, and selectively attack downfield. Seattle doesn’t blitz frequently, but it creates pressure without needing to send extra defenders. That is the biggest concern for New England, especially with Seattle owning the overall advantage in the trenches. However, Maye was one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks against the blitz last season, producing 0.23 EPA per dropback. If Seattle does bring additional pressure, I trust him to identify it and make the correct decision. I have Seattle as my second best team in the NFL. However, the Seahawks lost Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and a few defenders in Tariq Woolen, Boye Mafe, and Coby Bryant. This is still an elite roster, but they lost a bunch of key pieces and now have to operate under a new offensive coordinator. It will take time for them to get back to their elite status, and I don’t see them finding their best form in Week 1. As mentioned, I was lower than most on the Patriots last season, but I really liked what they did this offseason. They brought in A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs to give Drake Maye even more weapons and solidified their interior offensive line with Alijah Vera-Tucker. They also added Kevin Byard and Dre’Mont Jones to the defense. This is an improved roster from a year ago, and Maye now has another season under his belt. Also, Will Campbell is finally healthy. We all know how poorly he played in the Super Bowl, but he was dealing with a knee injury that clearly affected his performance. Campbell is a great player, and now that he’s fully recovered, I expect him to bounce back in a big way. This is also the ultimate revenge spot for a Patriots team that was embarrassed in the Super Bowl last season. That loss stung and will definitely be a motivator heading into this season. The Super Bowl hangover can be real for both sides, but this is a rematch, so I know motivation will be high. I would argue that the Seahawks will be feeling that hangover more considering they’ll be celebrating before the game and dealing with a ton of Super Bowl distractions pregame. Mike Vrabel has also been excellent as an underdog, going 35-21 ATS. I’ll take the Patriots to cover +3.5 on the road.

Using this as my free bet. FanDuel offering bonus for 1+ pt. Rolling the dice with it here on Kyle w/ SEA safeties banged up

@Stuckey2 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-week-1-betting-preview/id1004530793?i=1000788564665

My full betting preview for Patriots/Seahawks: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/new-england-patriots-vs-seattle-seahawks-prediction-pick-odds-nfl-week-1-kickoff-game-september-9

50% profit boost

Proj low 3, some books shading to a flat 3, want to grab the hook. Rest of NFL and CFB out wed/thur

Look to keep the Free Plays hot. Analysis on X/Tiktok vid @ Anderspicks Lets have another big NFL season shall we

#Tailing @Stuckey2

NFL POD

@KendraMiddleton_ https://open.spotify.com/episode/3Mq6hZT1xRt2mUhl18cQvb?si=GcCrvo8NSWSs3q7nT3Jbcw&utm_source=copy-link

I like Price to score too but there are reports from camp that Holani will take the workload in short yardage and goalline situations, making him the value play here at such big odds.

Jason Myers made 5 field goals in the Super Bowl and had 2+ field goals made in 75% of games last season. Now, the Seahawks offense is without Kenneth Walker and OC Klint Kubiak. They drafted Jadarian Price, but we will have to see how good he can be, and early in the season is when the new OC's struggle. The Seahawks' Super Bowl success came from Walker running all over the Patriots' defense. In a new scheme and with a full offseason to prepare, I expect the Patriots to stop the run better in this game. That means we should see drives stall as the field shrinks in the redzone. Even with a better OC and a running back to carry them, Meyers hit 5 field goals, so 2 should be easy for him here. Points will be at a premium in this game.

Week 1 is always tricky because there is so much uncertainty. That can make it a good time to find value, but it also means the confidence level on any sort of conviction should be lower. We are dealing with a lot of unknowns. That said, this is the exact type of spot where I think the market may be a bit too aggressive in assuming a rookie RB’s full role right away. My overall take on Jadarian Price is pretty nuanced. I’ve been saying ever since Seattle took him in the 1st round that it was a dream landing spot. With Kenneth Walker III gone and Zach Charbonnet likely to miss time early in the season, Price should open his career as the lead back. So this is not me fading Price as a player. I think he’s good. I think he can look excellent as a runner right away. I’m not really interested in fading his rushing yards prop in the 51-yard range, even against a strong Patriots run defense. That is the market where I’m more willing to buy into his talent, draft capital, and likely early-down role. The reception market is where I want to be more cautious. Price is a bit of an unusual 1st-round RB. He only had 295 touches in college at Notre Dame, although a huge reason for that is he was playing behind Jeremiyah Love, one of the best RB prospects we’ve seen in quite some time. Price was very efficient when he did get touches, and I thought he had 2nd-round talent. But he only had 87 pass-blocking snaps in his college career and is still a bit raw in that area. That matters for rookie RBs because pass protection is one of the quickest ways to lose passing-down snaps early in a career. He also didn’t play in the preseason. That may have been due to the lower-body soreness he was dealing with, or Seattle just wanting to protect its starting RB. But I was still a bit surprised they didn’t get him some live reps, especially as a pass blocker. So in his debut, I think we could see Seattle keep his role a bit cleaner. Let him handle early downs, use him in spots where they are more likely to run, and avoid putting too much on his plate in obvious passing situations. My current assumption is that Price inherits more of the Kenneth Walker role, while George Holani handles more of the Charbonnet role, with Emmanuel Wilson also mixing in. That doesn’t mean it has to play out exactly that way, but it’s the framework I’m using for now. I have Sam Darnold dropping back around 36 times, with Price running a route on roughly 35% of those dropbacks. That gets him around 13 routes. From there, I’m giving him around a 14% target rate and a high catch rate, roughly 80-85%, if he is targeted. That gets me around 1.4 receptions, with about a 59% chance to stay under 1.5. And if anything, I think that projection may already be a bit bullish on his true median passing-game role. I don’t want to fade his 8.5-9.5 receiving yards prop nearly as much because he can clear that on one catch. Again, my concern isn’t what Price can do once the ball is in his hands. It’s whether he will be on the field enough in obvious passing situations to earn multiple targets. He also had some fumbling issues in college, which is another thing that could impact his playing time if it flares up early. I’m not trying to overstate that, especially with Seattle’s current depth chart being Holani and Wilson, but it’s another small factor that makes me hesitant to assume a full all-purpose role right away. I won’t be shocked if Price has a couple catches for 10+ yards and this loses. That is always in play with a talented back. But I think the better way to fade him in his debut is by fading his passing-down usage, not his rushing ability. So my stance on Price for Week 1 is pretty simple: bullish on the rushing role, cautious on the receiving role.

Pretty standard practice to bet the winner of the SB in their opening games the following season and to fade the SB loser, what a gift that we get to kill 2 birds with one stone. I’ve been staring at this line for months and I don’t see it settling anywhere south of 3.5 (-110), especially if the Pats can’t get Christian Gonzalez figured out, so I’m comfortable betting it now.