Steelers vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - September 15, 2024
Steelers at Broncos
8:25 pm • CBSSteelers at Broncos Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Steelers 3-2 | -2 | -3-111 | o36.5-111 | -158 |
Broncos 3-2 | u41.5 | +3-110 | u36.5-109 | +133 |
Sunday 8:25 p.m.
September 15, 2024Empower Field at Mile HighDenver
Steelers vs. Broncos Expert Picks
Action Network Luck Rankings
26d ago
Last 30d: 15-8-1 (+5.7u)
DEN +2.5 (Live)-110
1u
VegasIsMyBitch
26d ago
Last 30d: 6-12-1 (-6.5u)
Under 36.5-108
0.93u
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Late play.
Shady Biev
26d ago
Last 30d: 79-69-1 (+28.6u)
J.Williams Anytime TD Scorer Yes+162
1u
J.Fields Anytime TD Scorer Yes+215
1u
Sean Zerillo
26d ago
Last 30d: 163-182-8 (-2.7u)
Under 36.5-110
0.5u
Vegas Refund
26d ago
Last 30d: 29-37-1 (-11.7u)
DEN +3-115
1.15u
Mjaybrod
26d ago
Last 30d: 86-110-0 (-20.2u)
PIT o9.5 Team Total (1H)-111
0.9u
Watch this be absolute air
JBBets
26d ago
Last 30d: 56-59-0 (-2.5u)
PIT -145
0.69u
The Touchdown Show
26d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
J.Fields Anytime TD Scorer Yes+220
1u
Via Stu Durst - The Extra Point
J.Fields 2+ TDs Yes+2000
0.25u
@GDAWG5000
The Faves Five
26d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
DEN +2.5-105
1.05u
Another bet we have loved all week. Big fade of Tomlin on the road as a favorite and of Justin Fields in this spot.
Simon Hunter
26d ago
Last 30d: 17-22-3 (-6.6u)
DEN +3-118
1u
The Degenerates
26d ago
Last 30d: 58-56-2 (-3.2u)
Under 36.5-108
1u
Moneyline Hacks
26d ago
Last 30d: 136-109-2 (+62.6u)
J.McLaughlin u2.5 Recs+106
1.06u
Chris Gimino
26d ago
Last 30d: 23-24-1 (-2.6u)
J.Fields o160.5 Pass Yds-115
1u
I am biggest Justin Fields hater for sure in RotoGrinders Discord, but also possibly anywhere. So for me to be looking at the over is an expression of confidence that this passing yardage benchmark is too low.
The narrative is in place for good reason that the Steelers will prefer to run it and that the Quarterback is much better suited to a game that doesn’t rely on his decision making. That said, our simulations of the game flow leave more instances of a Justin Fields over 160.5 than under. We will side with the sims and projected prop edge over narratives.
Brandon Anderson
27d ago
Last 30d: 33-35-2 (+12.9u)
Under 36.5-105
0.95u
TAN pod best bets
Proptology _
27d ago
Last 30d: 20-15-0 (+9.8u)
N.Harris Anytime TD Scorer Yes+155
1u
🔬 Arthur smith showed us he is exactly who he thought he was running Najee 20 times last week. Smith also compared Najee to Derrick Henry after the game….he’s going to keep feeding this man the ball. And In tomorrows matchup the Steelers O line has a slight edge over Denver’s front who allowed 103 yards and a touchdown on 20 Carries last week ( Charbs also found his way into the endzone by reception) - Steelers defense should also create short fields for the offense to work with.
The Propfessor
27d ago
Last 30d: 31-20-0 (+6.1u)
N.Harris o14.5 Rush Att-130
1u
Collin Whitchurch
27d ago
Last 30d: 153-141-2 (+5.7u)
J.Fields Anytime TD Scorer Yes+215
0.5u
Ryan Sura
27d ago
Last 30d: 81-106-3 (-26.5u)
J.Fields o39.5 Rush Yds-117
1.17u
Gilles Gallant
27d ago
Last 30d: 26-72-0 (-9.8u)
J.Fields 2+ TDs Yes+2000
0.25u
TOUCHDOWN SHOW SPICY BET No. 1.
Already on him for 1TD. LET THE MAN RUN!!
CeeJ Picks
28d ago
Last 30d: 42-76-0 (+8.5u)
N.Harris o15.5 Rush Att-105
1u
Najee Harris over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-105 Fliff/ -127 FD/Czrs)
Another line where right as I go to place it, the line jumps lol. However, even with it moving from 14.5 to 15.5, I still like this spot for Harris. The Steelers have a new QB in Justin Fields and in Week 1, we saw Najee Harris used a lot in this offense. In week 1 we saw HC Mike Tomlin use a nice mix of run and pass to help out his new QB. I expect this style of offense to continue in week 2. The Steelers will be on the road in Denver and will face a rookie QB in Bo Nix. I bring this up because this give Najee and the Steelers a favorable game script.
After watching how both these teams played in week 1, I think the Steelers have the edge in this one and are a -3 favorite on the books right now. Najee had 20 carries in week 1 for 70 yards against a much better Falcons defense than he will face this Sunday. Kenneth Walker was able to run all over the Broncos with 20 carries for 103 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and a TD to go with it. I can see a very similar game here in week 2. Tomlin always finds ways to get the best out of his teams and with Fields under center, the best way to help him is to lean on the run game.
The Broncos allowed Walker 5.2 YPC which ranks bottom 6 in the NFL after week 1. Not a big sample size, but this Broncos run defense ranked 30th last season and it looks to be just as bad this season. I think we have a favorable game script here for Harris and we will see the Steelers use him a lot through out the game, then in the 4th quarter when they are up, lean on him to close it out. Harris is over this line in 4/L5 games dating back to the end of last season and 6/L7 in games his team won.
N.Harris o59.5 Rush Yds-113
1u
Najee Harris over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FD/DK)
Also gonna play his yards since I like him to clear that line as well. As I said in the write up above, he had 70 yards rushing against a better Falcons defense and Walker just had 103 yards with 5.2 YPC, so I think this line is low for Harris. Harris had 122 yards rushing the last time he faced the Broncos back in 2021 and that was with Big Ben as his QB, so with Fields I expect them to run more to help him. He is also over this line in 9/L9 games where he hit 16 rushing attempts. He even went over his yards in 2 other games where he didn't hit his rush attempts line.
The Favorites Podcast
28d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
DEN +3-110
1.1u
Exec Decision
Grant Neiffer
28d ago
Last 30d: 19-30-0 (-11.4u)
C.Sutton Anytime TD Scorer Yes+380
1u
Prop Bet Guy
28d ago
Last 30d: 77-59-0 (+12.9u)
N.Harris o14.5 Rush Att-105
1u
Coming off a 20 carry performance against the Falcons, where Arthur Smith compared him to Derrick Henry, this should be another excellent spot to fire up Najee. The Broncos run defense (31st in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA last season), was eviscerated by Kenneth Walker last week.
Jaylen Warren is reportedly still not 100% healthy. And the Steelers aren’t going to let Justin Fields (or Russ, if he plays) throw much in a neutral to positive gamescript (60% rush plays last week). I also don’t see Bo Nix being able to control the clock against a solid Steelers defense.
Gilles Gallant
28d ago
Last 30d: 26-72-0 (-9.8u)
J.Fields Anytime TD Scorer Yes+225
0.5u
MJC Locks
29d ago
Last 30d: 9-10-0 (-0.3u)
B.Nix o0.5 Int-120
1u
⭐️ Play of the Week
Bo struggled in Week 1. He was extremely inaccurate & had 3 turnover worthy plays & a 41.8 Passing Grade (per PFF)
Now he’ll matchup up with a Steelers defense that played great in Week 1, limiting the Falcons to just 10 points & intercepting Kirk Cousins twice
PFF is giving the Broncos O-Line a -27% Pass Block Disadvantage - TJ Watt should continue to dominate and generate pressure which should lead to more inaccurate throws & poor decisions from Nix
15/L21 QBs to go up against this PIT defense have thrown a pick
Kyle Murray
29d ago
Last 30d: 83-75-4 (+2.2u)
G.Dulcich u2.5 Recs-120
1.2u
Will Brinson
30d ago
Last 30d: 5-11-0 (-7.7u)
DEN +3-120
1.2u
Boomer Betz
30d ago
Last 30d: 141-117-1 (+30.8u)
DEN +3-115
1u
Pick Em #1
Stuck 🚨
31d ago
Last 30d: 46-48-3 (-3.4u)
DEN +3-115
0.4u
Chad Millman
31d ago
Last 30d: 15-16-1 (-3.0u)
DEN +3-110
1u
I was leaning this way after our breakdown on The Favorites podcast. Luck Rankings confirmed it.
Babs .
31d ago
Last 30d: 70-55-1 (+7.9u)
DEN +3.5-115
2u
Matt Moore
32d ago
Last 30d: 24-31-3 (-5.0u)
Under 37-109
1u
PRO Insights
Steelers
PIT Insights
- Featured InsightThe Steelers allowed successful plays on 41.0% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season -- 8th-best in NFL; the Broncos ran successful plays on 42.0% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season -- 6th-worst in NFL.
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Broncos
DEN Insights
- Featured InsightThe Broncos have allowed 5.3 passing yards per attempt against a light front since Week 14 -- T-10th-best in NFL; the Steelers have allowed 9.3 yards per dropback with a light front since Week 14 -- 2nd-worst in NFL.
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Steelers vs. Broncos Previews & Analysis
Steelers vs. Broncos Props
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Steelers vs. Broncos Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Broncos are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Broncos are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Broncos are 3-0 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Broncos' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Broncos' 2 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Steelers vs. Broncos Injury Updates
Steelers Injuries
- Russell WilsonQB
Wilson is questionable with calf
Questionable
Broncos Injuries
Team Stats
Steelers vs. Broncos Odds Comparison
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Steelers at Broncos Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Steelers 3-2 | o19.5-112 | u19.5-108 |
Broncos 3-2 | o16.5-125 | u16.5+105 |